China And Yao Ming Rising?
Man am I irritated.
First off, I am only in second place (and a distant second at that) in the Best of Asia blog voting. So please, please, please, go and vote here. And please keep voting. Second, I just read an excellent post on the Jottings From the Granite Studio Blog analogizing China's ascendancy and self-perception with Yao Ming. I should have written that post and I cannot believe I am second on that one as well. Check my bio; basketball is right there. I this weekend watching my daughter's high school basketball team win two games, including one yesterday against Oregon State's Number 2 ranked team, Lake Oswego, so it is not like basketball was not on my mind. Damn.
At least I can stake a claim to having previously used a Yao/China metaphor when I analogized China's lack of international basketball experience to its lack of international corporate experience, in a post entitled, "Yao Ming Knows Business -- China Needs More Overseas Experience":
Just came across this article, headlined, "China needs more overseas experience, says Yao." I opened it, expecting to read a Chinese economist discussing how China's companies are, for the most part, still quite inexperienced internationally. Instead, the "Yao" is Yao Ming and it is an article on Chinese basketball. As a huge basketball fan, the metaphoric opportunities here are just too good to pass on.
I have watched countless Chinese basketball games on TV and Yao is right. Like basketball players everywhere, Chinese players play to the level of their competition and, right now anyway, Chinese basketball does not match that of the leading basketball countries. To break from this, China's best players need to leave China and start playing in tougher leagues. Leagues with better players, better coaches, better training.
The majority of Chinese basketball players do not look like they have played basketball for at least five hours a day for their entire lives. I can remember watching some women's professional basketball on TV during the first season. This was pre-WNBA, even pre-WNBL. Nancy Lieberman was the star. Only a handful of women on each team looked like true gym rats; the rest looked like they were athletes from other sports who were out playing basketball. Nowadays, most all of the girls on the better high school teams look like they have been living and breathing basketball since they were six or seven years old. There is no substitute for getting out and playing among the best.
The same is true of China's companies. Not that China is an easy environment for businesses generally, but it is for many of the State Owned Entities (SOEs). Despite all the talk and the numbers regarding increased Chinese investment overseas, the reality on the ground seems very different. I have yet to talk with anyone involved with China who does not say Chinese companies have been to slow to expand overseas. .
The Granite Studio post entitled, "A Peaceful Rise' starts to throw elbows: Yao Ming and China's new attitude," begins by talking about Nate Robinson, at 5'9" (1.75 meters), blocking 7'6" (2.29 meters) Yao Ming's shot (you can watch that amazing blocked shot here on YouTube) and sees that blocked shot as epitomizing China's struggles over the last centuries. The post goes on to talk about how Yao Ming entered the NBA with so much hope and promise, but only in the last month or so has he finally taken it upon himself to fight hard enough to become great. The fact I watched Nate Robinson play many times while he was in both high school (Rainier Beach) and college (University of Washington) here in Seattle only adds to my grief at not coming out first with this one.
The Granite Studio sees China, like Yao, as finally realizing it is a great power that must "occasionally throwing an elbow and talking trash to the other team." The post quotes extensively from a New York Times article, entitled, "China, Shy Giant, Shows Signs of Shedding Its False Modesty":
President Hu Jintao set off an internal squabble two years ago when he began using the term "peaceful rise" to describe his foreign policy goals. He dropped the term in favor of the tamer-sounding "peaceful development."
His use of "rise" risked stoking fears of a "China threat," especially in Japan and the United States, people told about the high-level debate said. Rise implies that others must decline, at least in a relative sense, while development suggests that China's advance can bring others along.
Yet this tradition of modesty has begun to fade, replaced by a growing confidence that China's rise is not fleeting and that the country needs to do more to define its objectives.
With its $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, surging military spending initiatives in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, Beijing has begun asserting its interests beyond its borders. Chinese party leaders are acting as if they intend to start exercising more power abroad rather than just protecting their political power at home.
Both the New York Times article and the Granite Studio Blog go on to talk about the Chinese documentary television series, The Rise of Great Nations, which Granite Studio sees as manifesting "a reclamation of a mantle of empire and the idea brewing "in the halls of Zhongnanhai and even among the people on the street that China, despite its long history, has only yet to live up to its true potential. The Granite Studio goes on to say there is a "new attitude coming out of the Middle Kingdom. It's not arrogance really, it's a certain cockiness, a sense that an old swagger long lost has now been reclaimed:
China's problems are numerous and severe. Let's be clear about that. And being big is never going to be enough. Yao only reached his greatness when he decided that his game wasn't perfect and that he would allow himself to be coached. Part of being great is knowing it takes to achieve greatness. It takes confidence to know when you need to fix things.
My view of Yao Ming differs greatly from that of the Granite Studio. I do not see him as a great basketball player, even if I were to buy into the idea that he has played great in the last month or so. He is a good basketball player who is 7'6" tall. He lacks desire. He lacks heart. I once asked a long time Division I college football coach whether he had ever seen a player come into college lacking "heart" and then acquire it while there. He told me no.
Yao Ming has always lacked heart and a purported month of greatness will not change that. Yao Ming's history will be based on far more than his one month of purported greatness and when his time in the NBA is over, he will more often be compared to Ralph Sampson than to Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul Jabbar
I think we should be equally careful in rushing to proclaim China a great power.
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» China and Yao Ming rising? from The Hao Hao Report
Basketball fan Dan Harris compares the career of Yao Ming with the so-called rise of China. Harris believes Yao lacks desire and will never become a NBA great. Based on this, he cautions people who are rushing to proclaim China a great power. [Read More]
» Nate blocks Yao, China and Yao Rise from Dave Porter Weblog
So, Nate blocks Yao. Several bloggers relate Yao's problems and recent rise to China's problems and rise. Jottings from the Granite State notes;Last month, 7'6 Yao Ming had a shot blocked by 5'9 Knick guard Nate Robinson. If there was [Read More]
Comments
I'm glad you appreciated my tongue-in-cheek NBA/PRC analogy. And I enjoyed your further commentary. I too watch and play a lot of basketball.
Ok, even though it has nothing to do with law or history, I'll take the bait.
Basketball-reference.com uses an admittedly arcane formula to calculate the number of "win shares" a player is worth roughly equivalent to the contribution the player made towards his team's overall number of victories.
Through their first four seasons (through last season for Yao), Ralph Sampson had 58 win shares versus over 100 for Yao and Ralph never had a season (or even a month) like what Yao is doing right now.
I agree "best center in the NBA right now" (in a league dominated by swingmen and PFs) is a long way from joining the pantheon of Russell, Wilt, and Kareem. But Ralph Sampson, yikes!
I agree about the "heart" issue and that's why I wrote the post. You can't coach "desire." But I've been watching Yao a lot this year, and he's just a different player. I can't put my finger on it, but he's playing with a HUGE chip on his shoulder and I think that's what is making the difference.
Okay, back to studying history...
Posted by: Jeremiah | December 10, 2006 1:43 PM
Comparing Yao and the PRC.
Is Yao playing like he's on fire because he's on fire or because the word "trade" has been floated his way? Europe has lots of talented players who could school Yao with heart and talent.
Likewise, China is on the upswing, but everyone can see the top of the curve, where China's corruption, internal economic and cultural problems, environmental wreckage, severe water shortages and demographic decline will start to visibly weaken the country in the next 10-15 years.
So China is going to play like "its on fire" and that includes political objectives as well (like taiwan, "southern Tibet" ie northern India, South China Sea, Senkaku, 1/3 of northern korea and Siberia - which is rich in water, fuel, minerals and land).
Posted by: nanheyangrouchuan | December 10, 2006 5:03 PM
Okay, so I engage in a bit of hyperbole to try to get everything to fit my thesis. On top of that, I don't even know the NBA that well, as I would rather see a high school (saw a bit of Kevin Love yesterday, right after my daughter's game. He's the number one ranked HS big man, going off to UCLA. His team is ranked #1 in Oregon, playing Franklin, out of Seattle, ranked #1 in Washington. LO won and from what little I saw of Love, the guy can really play, but I digress.) or college game any day. Sampson popped into my head just because he's the nearest to Ming physically. I will concede Ming is already better than Sampson ever was, but as an historian, you do have to admit it is way to early to tell with Ming....
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 10, 2006 7:37 PM
nanheyangrouchuan --
Good analogy and I think I agree. Ming is at his height right now but it's not going to last and one thing we all know about hot countries is that cannot last either. I think China will do just fine for the next 50 years, but I also think that the hype as to be at least someone overblown.
If China were a college player would it go on Dick Vitale's Diaper Dandy team or his All-Overated team?
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 10, 2006 7:41 PM
Definitely the All-Overated team. Early 2000s saw alot of hype about "the next superpower" and all of the talking was done by MNCs. Now they want western gov'ts to spend significant political capitial defending their IP rights when they knew this would be a problem in the first place, and a more confident PRC wants to be "the center of the world again".
Did anyone really think there would be such a thing as a peaceful rising power? Especially one that used to be the unquestioned power in Asia for 3000 years.
Posted by: nanheyangrouchuan | December 10, 2006 8:18 PM
Wow, lots of basketball fans here! I lived in Texas for 8 years from the late 80's to the mid 90's and has been a Rockets fan since Hakeem Olajuwon's days. So to say the least, I was ecstatic when Yao ended up in Houston and has been closely following him ever since. I think it's a huge misconception to say that Yao lacks heart and desire. If anything, heart and desire is what makes him put in all the extra time for practice and working on his game and allowed him to keep improving every season. If you look at his numbers, he's been quietly but steadily improving every year and that's why I don't think the past month is a fluke.
Yao's stats for the last 5 seasons
02-03 13.5 points 8.2 rebounds
03-04 17.5 points 9.0 rebounds
04-05 18.3 points 8.4 rebounds
05-06 22.3 points 10.6 rebounds
06-07 25.5 points 9.5 rebounds (season so far)
He was already playing at a very high level last year after he came back from his surgery but most people didn't notice because the Rockets were out of playoffs contention. In any case, I'm still pumped from Yao's performance against the wizards last night. It was the second game of a back-to-back on the road and 4th road game in 5 nights for the Rockets, and Yao had 38 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 blocked shots. 23 of his points came in the 4th quarter -- after TMac went down with an injury -- including the clutch game winner with 11 seconds left in the game and no time left on the shot clock. Is that enough heart and desire?
In the spirit of all the metaphors between Yao's progression and China's rise, I'll just say:
This is the year of YAO and the century of CHINA! :-)
Posted by: Hui Mao | December 10, 2006 9:22 PM
nanheyangrouchuan --
I like your analogy since we all know China cannot remain this hot. But, as an eternal optimist, I am not willing to concede so quickly that China's economic growth increases the likelihood of it causing war.
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 10, 2006 11:05 PM
Hui Mao --
Ah, Hakeem. Now there was a player. I remember seeing him (on TV) back when he was just starting out with the University of Houston and he looked so raw. But I kept saying I had never seen a seven footer run like he did -- he ran like a point guard -- and I always predicted great things for him. Now I am not claiming I was the only one, but ....
I actually think your statistics support my point. Yao just ain't (as they say in Texas) that tough. I mean, shouldn't he have more rebounds? More blocked shots too? Of course he's a really good player, but at this point, I'd take Walton, Willis Reed, Shaq (who I don't even like), Wilt, Kareem, Hakeem, and, of course, Bill Russell. Yao isn't in that same league YET and China isn't in the superpower league YET either.
I had no idea basketball would create so much interest. I'll have to try a baseball analogy at some point just to see how that goes. Definitely been a few from Taiwan and I have heard Sadaharu Oh's father was Chinese.
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 10, 2006 11:14 PM
CLB, you travel to China more than I do, we both know what the gov't teaches kids and tells people in regards to "submitting the bill for 150 years of humilitation" and of course none of those problems had anything to do with internal management. Remember the anti-Japan protests? That was after everyone found out Beijing had been taking $1 billion USD a year from Japan in economic assistance.
coincidence?
Posted by: nanheyangrouchuan | December 11, 2006 7:39 AM
China's power has historically been based on Chinese entrepreneurialism and its large domestic population and demand, not on any government policy. This rule even applies to China's SOEs, which are government entities whose hefty overseas purchases are governed by the size of the huge domestic market. So, in fact, China's power comes from a large entrepreneurial population reawakened by market rules, not from government policy.
Another rule of foreign policy is that when the leading power in world affairs is over-stretching its own resources to the breaking point by engaging in questionable foreign wars, any upcoming power should not do anything which will steal the limelight from the No. 1's situation.
Another rule is to create the new rules for rising, and not to follow the rules created by the previous power/s, rules which others excelled at. Create your own set of new rules. These should be new rules no one else will be able to compete against because the new riser has a new unique set of qualifications for superiority.
That is what China (the country and people, not government) is doing now. Previous analogies will not apply.
Posted by: Paul Denlinger | December 11, 2006 7:43 AM
nanheyangrouchuan --
Thanks for checking in. I know very little about what is taught in China's schools, but I definitely agree with you that nationalism is an easy tool for the CCP to trot out when it feels put upon. The CCP did that with Japan, but then when it looked like things might get out of hand, it at least had the good sense to try to pull things back in.
There are definitely forces in China that want to feed on and even wallow in humiliation, yet there are also definitely forces that more than anything just want to move forward. Things are easiest for the progressive forces when things are good and easiest for the wallowers when things are going bad. This is true everywhere.
The thing that always scares me is how incredibly easy it is to ignite the masses (see Yugoslavia, Rwanda, etc.) by bringing up the past. I have no doubt China would be doing itself a huge disservice if it cannot resist this but I also have no clue as to its long term ability to do so.
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 11, 2006 3:47 PM
Paul --
Thanks for checking in. I agree with everything you say, except I dispute your statement that "previous analogies will not apply." We may not yet know what analogies will apply (Yao Ming, notwithstanding), but there is no way China's rise or fall cannot be compared (even if only after the fact) to something that preceeded it.
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 11, 2006 3:57 PM
as you proclaim to be a basketball fan, i am astounded by your ignorance and bias in saying yao is not "great" and he lacks "heart".
his numbers speak for themselves. you need to belittle his accomplishments and fit him into your analogy of this "infant giant" that is china belies much of what people like you - self-proclaimed china experts, particularly westerners do. you point and point at the perceived half-empty cup and don't realize it is yourself who already drank from that very cup and will soon be full of it yourself.
Posted by: JAY CHOU | December 13, 2006 11:04 AM
nanheyangrouchuan,
whatever your name is... one word, Xinjiang is and will be part of China, have a nice day
Posted by: jay chou | December 13, 2006 11:08 AM
Jay Chou --
Thanks for checking in.
1. Lighten up.
2. Yao Ming is one person. He is not the emodiment of China and nobody really thinks he is. He also is not yet a great basketball player and I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone who is prepared to put him in the same league with the truly great. He hasn't even played long enough to warrant it.
3. I have never referred to China as an "infant Giant," nor have I ever thought of it that way.
4. I also never referred to China as a half empty cup, but let's go with your analogy for a moment and let me ask you whether you honestly believe China's cup is full. Do you? And if it is full, does that mean it need do nothing more to improve itself?
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 13, 2006 4:05 PM
Jay,
I agree with Dan, the analogy to Yao Ming was a bit tongue-in-cheek. (Though I am more bullish on Yao than Dan--8 blocks last night!) Let's not get too hot about it.
As for cups and glasses, I don't think it's quite as simple as half-full/half-empty. Suffice to say that there are many positive developments in China accompanied by persistent systemic problems as well as newer difficulties that are the side effects of rapid economic development. It is what it is and I think Dan does a good job of pointing out both sides of this equation.
Finally, as for Xinjiang, have you read Peter Perdue's recent opus, _China Marches West_? If not, I highly suggest doing so at your earliest possible convenience.
Posted by: Jeremiah | December 16, 2006 4:19 PM
Jeremiah --
I am beginning to agree with you regarding Yao, but let's at least wait until the conclusion of this season before we proclaim his greatness and I eat my shoe.
Posted by: China Law Blog | December 16, 2006 11:28 PM