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China’s Oh So Happy People. Does Anybody Really Know?

By Dan Harris on Posted in China Business

Especially in light of what is happening elsewhere in the world, I am amazed at the sheer guts of writers who are saying things like “most Chinese still firmly support the direction the government is taking the country.” 

How can anyone claim to know this about “most of” China’s 1.3 billion people? Are there any legitimate surveys out there, or are we just left to assume that three or four highly educated people in Shanghai or Beijing speak for the whole country? I think the writers who purport to know are completely winging it. 

I am not asking this to be facetious, but rather to point out that if the world’s great intelligence services (the United States, Britain, France, and Israel) failed to predict what has happened in the Middle East, why should we lend any credence whatsoever to statements like this? Add to this the fact that the Western media and pundits who make comments like this (be they in Shanghai, Beijing, New York or London) are, at best basing their views on conversations with maybe 100 Chinese elites. What do the Chinese people really think? Darned if I know and darned if I believe anyone else who is writing on this does either. 

All I know is that my law firm can hardly keep up with an increasing stream of calls we are getting from wealthy Chinese calling us regading Eb5 investor visas so they can live in the United States and secure U.S. citizenship.  

Please note that we are going to be even more careful than usual in terms of editing and allowing comments.  

  • http://www.socratesinsichuan.com Peter Vernezze

    If you want to know what a section of Chinese think, the best way is to have their own words and not some foreigner tell you what they think. Unfortunately as you point out most blogs, books and articles on China do the latter. Not to put in a shameless plug (ok. Maybe to put in a shameless plug–but an approrpiate given the content of your piece) my recently released “Socrates in Sichuan: Chinese Students Search for Truth, Justice and the Chinese Way” (Potomac Books) chronicles a two year philosophy discussion group I held with Chinese undergraduates in Sichuan province. It offers up these students’ views on the world in their own words. I submit the book does a pretty good job of laying out what the up and coming group of young Chinese think about a wide variety of subjects, including the direction that the government is taking. So I guess I would argue attempting to provide a perspective on the Chinese view of things is a meaningful project provided it is carried out in the right way, that is, if methodology is correct (you allow the Chinese to speak for themselves) and the claims are modest (once claims not to be speaking for all Chinese but for the representative sample size). (P.S. Happy to send you a copy of the book if you are interested.).

  • http://stevebarru.com/ SteveB

    Thanks Dan. As far as I can tell plenty of foreign “experts” have been winging it about China for years now. The blizzard of misinformation and nonsense about China unsubstantiated by anything even remotely resembling a piece of hard data has been going on for as long as I’ve been here. I always look closely at what I read, who wrote it, and whether the claims pass some basic common sense tests. Among others, as you suggest, how is a non-Chinese speaking foreigner whose sole contact with locals amounts to several successful Chinese business associates and a handful of Chinese yuppies in places like Sanlitun and Xintiandi really in a position to make generalized comments about what Chinese people think.

  • observer

    Failed to predict it in the Middle East and failed to predict it a couple decades ago in the Soviet Union. It’s a matter of “collective consciousness”, and when it suddenly flows to the surface and begins to act it almost always takes everyone by surprise – probably even the people who are part of the flow.
    Interestingly, the gov’t itself seems to have its finger on the pulse as were. Their actions are probably as good an indication as any of public sentiment. Put differently, it’s clear that the gov’t is not as sanguine as this handful of pundits.

  • Aaron

    Middle East was a simple case of collective tunnel vision. They simply ignored many of the clear indications of discontent in the region. I mean seriously, Bin Laden was rallying his radicals to overthrow the Dictators in Middle East, and given his successes in the past, it was a clear indication that Bin Laden was tapping into a very visible public sentiment for his movement.
    China is another case of collective tunnel vision. Western Pundits pretty much ignored many clear indications of the popularity base of the Chinese government, in favor of what supported their vision of what they wanted China to be.
    CCP may be a single party in control, but it is highly efficient (more efficient than most political parties). It’s ideological appeal may have waned, but it has made up for it using other incentives. The CCP’s membership now is more educated, more diverse, growing from 60 million of 1980′s to 78 million today.
    Some theorize that the CCP has turned itself from a political party into more of a channel body of political promotions for a privileged voting class of citizenry, since the only real qualification of joining the CCP (and subsequently eligible to participate meaningfully in the political system) is one must be a citizen and loyal (in political label).
    Some may argue that the CCP membership is meaningless, since many of the members do not really believe in the CCP political doctrines. (But then again, who is really Truly a Democrat or a Republican in US?)
    >to Dan’s illustration of Rich Chinese people wanting to move to US, I say, a Lot of Rich people in the world want to move to US. Rich people are hardly the popular sentiment. It’s sometimes just a convenience to have a US passport, sometimes it’s a status symbol.
    I wrote once in another blog, the American dream is for the Rich, and the Rich of the World all want to live like Rich Americans in US. (and that’s the reason they come).

  • http://www.foarp.blogspot.com FOARP

    Flip-side, all the businesses I know in China seem to be expanding.
    I can’t say that certain political developments in China recently don’t seem a bit alarming, but I don’t think it’s going to make life worse for ordinary people. At worst, the government is simply going to drop the coyness and restraint it previously used in exercising its powers.

  • rui

    Why did you bring up the topic of increasing numbers of wealthy Chinese emigrating? Do you think it portends political instability? I’m honestly curious. I would have thought it a natural development as China’s wealthy class grows and want to enjoy a better environment and better education for their kids. With such a large population, even a small percentage of people emigrating would seem large in absolute numbers.

  • echo 1

    Let the wealthy Chinese stay in China and fix their communist country. We don’t need or want them. Fight to improve your archaic government.

  • http://americanlawyerinriyadh.com Donzelion

    “Most people believe…” is one of those extreme fallacies, upon which armies of pundits earn their keep while indulging in mass psychoanalysis. It’s interesting that enough people claim to care what other people believe (or feel) to make for many a substantial industry – including ours. How many fields of law are ultimately governed by what “reasonable people believe?”
    In terms of EB5 – “many people believe” it has some connection to their ‘pursuit of happiness’ – hence the willingness to invest – but it seems to me that the jury is still out on many of the available investment options. I’m ill-equipped to assess the financial viability of any specific option, but somehow, the risk/reward prospects seem skewed in offerings I’ve seen. Perhaps “many Americans feel” foreign investors are suckers, or that they are simply “buying a green card.”

  • Dennis

    Well if you really want to know where that idea comes from simply consult the Pew Global Attitudes Project (http://pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=5&country=45) which shows that 87% of the Chinese surveyed are “satisfied with the way things are going in their country” and 91% agree that “the current economic situation in is very good, or somewhat good.” So you can believe it or not but the Pew Survey is a well-regarded, methodologically sound survey that reflects global attitudes.

  • Jacko
  • Wang Hui

    This is a foolish and naive article and I believe shows how much the author really knows China. Our nation has lifted millions out of poverty over the past twenty years and is about to expand its middle class from 40 million today to about 700 million by 2025. As Deng Xiaoping said “Getting Rich is Glorious” and we Chinese are mostly very happy getting on with it and just doing that. Politics is for the politicians, most Chinese just get on with our lives. I drive a Mercedes and live in a USD1.2million apartment. Do you, Mr. American lawyer?

  • Twofish

    Dan: I am not asking this to be facetious, but rather to point out that if the world’s great intelligence services (the United States, Britain, France, and Israel) failed to predict what has happened in the Middle East,
    Not clear that they didn’t. No one on this board has access to CIA or Mossad reports on Egypt, so I’d be a bit hesitant to jump to conclusions about what the CIA predicted based on press reports by people that also don’t have access to CIA reports.
    Dan: What do the Chinese people really think? Darned if I know and darned if I believe anyone else who is writing on this does either.
    Different Chinese people think different things.
    Also, US citizenship/permanent residency is something of a status symbol and also gets you some useful things like visa-free access to other countries.
    However, one thing that you should mention to your clients is Treasury Form TD-F 90-22.1. The US government taxes worldwide income and there is mandatory disclosure of overseas bank accounts with very stiff jail time for non-compliance.

  • Almost Duped

    I often wonder the same thing and I do not think that we can take the surveys seriously either since they so focus so much on economics and since when should a survey in a _______[edited out] country be given much weight? Who knows who Pew and others were allowed to speak to. Until a lot changes in China, we are going to be left mostly to guess.

  • Volker Müller

    According to the last census roughly 50% of the Chinese population is still living in the countryside. As most members of the Chinese part of the family live in the countryside (and as my happiest moments are in small Chinese villages), I would like to add a few thoughts:
    though China has become a market economy with all its advantages and disadvantages, there is still a legacy from the Chinese revolution that is most important for the countryside: the results of the land reform in the early 1950th are still prevalent.
    This means that each Chinese family in the countryside has a small plot of land on which they can make a living. What ever happens in Wallstreet, Chinese farmers will survive.
    This makes China very different from most other developing and emerging countries.
    Those Chinese farmers who are quite well off (not by standards of Luxembourg but may be by standards of Hungary or Portugal) were very poor just 20 years ago.
    Those Chinese farmers who are very poor today (even by standards of Hungary of Portugal) were hungry several months a year, just 20 years ago.
    Forget the scyscrapers of Liujiazui, the countryside is the core of China’s success story.

  • Duncan

    If you want actual data on what Chinese people think you have to go to surveys. Lot of people doing them these days but Pew’s well known as a comparator for international sentiments on key issues (http://bit.ly/mp4p1g). We did our own survey-based work on rural and urban consumer views as part of a project sponsored by Bayer project last year (http://bit.ly/meaJIy).

  • Michael

    The dictum ‘all politics is local’ applies to China as much as anywhere. I have spoken to people in Sichuan and Guangxi who hold what would call very orthodox pro-government views on national and international issues. When it comes to local matters, however, they have very strong opinions on everything from poor schools and crime to local government mismanagement, inflation and the growing wealth gap. Opinions vary greatly from district to district so I am always sceptical of anyone who claims ‘Chinese believe this’ or are unhappy about that.

  • http://www.inpraiseofchina.com godfree Roberts

    China is cooperating with the world’s mainstream data-gathering bodies, especially the OECD. And before we start congratulating them let’s remember that national, systematic data-gathering has been part of Chinese government practice for at least 2,200 years.
    As to what Chinese think, it is as important to their government as it is to anyone else. So the Chinese government has begun to allow reputable polling groups to sample public opinion. Thus far their work has been limited to urban Chinese because costs skyrocket when polling in the less densely populated countryside.
    And what DO Chinese think about a national government that is remarkably honest, has kept the economy growing at 10% annually, has lifted China’s profile in the world, and has raised 500 million people out of poverty? Just what you would imagine: they are much more satisfied with their government than we are with ours. Here are two sources of polling information. There are several other (American) sources that do similar work and have reported similar results:
    On Jan. 26, the 2011 Edelman Trust Barometer, which ranks institutions by the amount of trust people have in them, was released by Edelman, one of the top five global public relations firms. The report shows that China ranked first in the world in terms of trust in government with 88 percent trust. (http://www.scribd.com/doc/47515988/2011-Edelman-Trust-Barometer-Executive-Summary).
    In a spring 2010 survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, 87% of Chinese said they were satisfied with the way things were going in their country.
    The Pew Global Attitudes survey asked respondents to place themselves on a “ladder of life,” where zero represents the worst possible life and 10 the best possible life. Respondents were also asked to describe where they stood five years ago and where they guessed they would stand five years in the future.
    Chinese reported much more personal progress over the past five years and much more optimism looking ahead…Nearly two-thirds of Chinese judged their lives to be better than five years ago. This number out-stripped even the personal progress reported in the U.S. and Western Europe.
    The Chinese were decidedly upbeat about the future as well. In spring 2010, 74% believed their lives would be better in five years – an impressive level of optimism compared with opinions in the U.S. and Western Europe. In China, just 6% believed their lives would worsen over the next five years. (http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1945/chinese-may-not-be-ready-for-revolution)

  • Almost Duped

    @godfree,
    A lot depends on how a poll defines government. I do not doubt your numbers as regarding Beijing, but I think they would be the exact opposite if the questions were asked about the local government. Polls that attribute government to happiness are always suspect because studies have shown that some people are just happier than others. I remember hearing last year that Somalis were some of the happiest and most optomistic people in the world even though their government barely functions at all.

  • Dan (another Dan)

    Volker – “This means that each Chinese family in the countryside has a small plot of land on which they can make a living.”
    Actually, many farmers land is not enough to support the family unless it is worked by their own hands and even then it is not a sure thing. When rented to another farmer is does not provide a living income. I suppose if all generations wanted to farm that would be true but that is changing.
    Also, the government has implemented policies in places that require the land to be given up and a one time payment is made. 10,000rmb is a commonly quoted figure and they are given a house in another location. This amount of money will not last very long. They will need to find work outside of farming.
    Seems strange as a foreigner to tell this to a Chinese yet it is undeniable and is more strange that you would ignore these well documented trends or portend that farming is the future os China.
    Also, to use how many people call YOUR OFFICE about EB5 as a counter point or indicator about the overall happiness of China’s people (1.3B people) is pretty ridiculous. Anyway, Twofish makes a great point about worldwide income (Why not just go to Canada? They even GIVE YOU BACK your investment principle after a few years!).
    To your main point though I agree China is extremely varied and broad stereotypes about happiness (a very subjective term) are at best superficial.

  • Harland

    Every year for the past 20 years or so, China has gotten better than the year before. Heck, I’ve seen it in my short seven years here. Why would they want to throw out the bums who brought them this?
    I’ve heard it said before that the unspoken social compact between the people and central government is: “you keep the prosperity flowing, and we won’t interfere politically.” Local governments are a different issue, there is a long tradition of mandarins fleecing the yokels.

  • Dan (another Dan)

    Just happened to come across this BW article on farms being converted.
    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_19/b4227009958677.htm?chan=magazine+channel_news+-+global+economics
    Some excerpts…
    “This year, maybe next, they’ll develop my field,” the 63-year-old Zhao says, gazing at the land he has tended all his life. If that happens, Zhao would receive modest compensation. Without the farm, he says, “I don’t know what I’ll do.”
    The factories sprawling from Jinan, 15 miles to the west, put Zhao on the front line of a clash between a policy of food self-sufficiency and the industrial growth that has made China the world’s No. 2 economy.
    China, the world’s biggest grain producer, was a net exporter of soybeans until 1995. This year it’s forecast to import 57 million tons, or almost 60 percent of global trade in the oilseed used in animal feed and tofu, according to data from the U.S. Agriculture Dept.

  • Jacko

    From my experience over the last decade living here in one of the poorest western Provinces, I can clearly say that among my friends and acquantances the Pew Report of an 87 percent approval rating for the Chinese Central Government is pretty conservative.

  • Jen

    As a number of comments have pointed out, there are a lot of surveys that ask questions about happiness in China with genuine random samples. The problem is, these surveys ask you whether you are happy or not or they ask you to rate your happiness on a scale of 1 to 10. It is very difficult to compare responses across people let alone across countries with these types of questions. One person’s 2 could be another person’s 6. One person’s “yes I am happy” could mean that sure I am content enough but if someone starts the revolution, I would also be happy to join in. So, I think the main point of the entry still stands: we really have no idea.
    As to the comment that no one predicted the revolutions in the Middle East: it really isn’t all that surprising that no one predicted them. Revolutions involve large amounts of coordination that often only occur after random events (think one person setting himself on fire in Tunisia). However, you of course do need some underlying conditions for events like these to spiral, and I think most people who are familiar with Egypt would have told you last year that Egyptians were generally discontent (and openly so) with the regime as a whole to a much greater extent than in China.

  • friend

    That’s another quote by _________[edited to avoid a deluge]. He probably never leaves his Beijing villa and hangs out with his billionaire friends and government cronies. Obviously they are all happy!

  • Richard

    Just a quick point: unhappiness/frustration with the direction of government does not usually lead to the sort of activity we are seeing across the Arab world. I suspect, just based on personal experience, that many Chinese are unhappy with the government/public policy issues, but are disinclined to take any concrete action to change the situation. There are many reasons for that but that is perhaps a larger subject. Nevertheless, I don’t know why some China pessimists are so quick to say “Chinese are dissatisfied with government, ergo we can expect massive unrest/instability.” That’s a logical leap…
    It’s not a fair parallel to China but what are the approval ratings for the U.S. Congress? And how many Americans are taking to the streets over it?

  • justaguy

    I find it interesting that people who have been in China for a week are full of strong generalizations about what Chinese people think, and everyone I know who’s been doing research on China since the 70s and 80s are loathe to use the word China in a sentence without qualifying it. I was sitting in an anthropology of China class when a student asked the professor “What do Chinese people think about homosexuality?” The professor, who has published several articles about sexuality in China replied that she has no idea how to even answer the question. Social scientists tend to go overboard with hedging their observations, but its a good habit to get into.
    I’ve spoken to a lot of people who are on the winning side of economic reform – they aren’t millionaires, but they have jobs that pay a living salary or own businesses that do reasonably well. I’ve heard a lot of people say that, while they’re doing OK, they’re bothered by the disparity between the rich and the poor. Or that while they’re successful enough to buy a car and an apartment, that hasn’t brought any real fulfillment (and they don’t know what that fulfillment would consist of).
    I’m not really sure what being happy with things consists of. I talk to some people who are incredibly critical of the Chinese state in general, and others who are passionately against specific policies. Often its not even policies per se, but insisting that the state should intervene to ensure food quality or curb inflation and real estate prices. So, it is definitely common to find people who are happy with their lot in life but unsatisfied with the overall shape of society; people who are dissatisfied with both but don’t translate that into any sort of radicalism; or people who talk trash about the state, take its continued existence for granted (or even as a good thing) and hope for changes at the margin. I have yet to talk to anyone – Chinese or otherwise- who doubts the continued stability of the Chinese state, though.
    Which is just to say that Chinese people have opinions that are just as varied, complex, and difficult to sum up in short sentences as Americans. I dislike Obama because of specific policies; like some things he’s done but wish he’d do more; and am willing to suck it up and vote for him next time around because whoever’s going to be running against him will definitely be worse. Most public opinion polls on issues like health care reform would put myself – who thinks is a mild improvement but not nearly as good as a single payer program – in the same category as someone who thinks its a socialist plot to murder your grandmother and harvest her organs to make into soylent green. Why not, we’re both “opposed” to it.

  • Twofish

    Dan: Actually, many farmers land is not enough to support the family unless it is worked by their own hands and even then it is not a sure thing. When rented to another farmer is does not provide a living income. I suppose if all generations wanted to farm that would be true but that is changing.
    On the other hand, farming does provide a “safety net.” If you go to the city and things don’t work well there, then you can go back to the countryside and start farming. It’s not a lot of money, but it will keep you from starving. More importantly, it’s “dignified”. Unlikely getting a welfare check from the government, farming through your own efforts is something that you can be proud of.
    Dan: Also, the government has implemented policies in places that require the land to be given up and a one time payment is made. 10,000rmb is a commonly quoted figure and they are given a house in another location. This amount of money will not last very long. They will need to find work outside of farming.
    That tends to happen in areas that are urbanizing. Also in a place with high real estate values, getting a free house is not a minor thing. It’s also the case that a lot of companies will provide housing for their employees in which case, you rent out the house that you got.
    Dan: Seems strange as a foreigner to tell this to a Chinese yet it is undeniable and is more strange that you would ignore these well documented trends or portend that farming is the future of China.
    Farming isn’t the future, but it provides an important social safety net for the present. One thing that happens less in China than in other parts of the world is that people move from farm to the city, and they are totally stuck if they lose their job in the city.

  • Dan (another Dan)

    I read today in China Daily that 60% of Chinese cannot afford a home, one out of three people in Beijing is a migrant worker, and in the Shanghai Daily says that both the USA and China produced $2T of manufactured goods in 2010 yet it took China 100M people to do it vs. USA taking 11.5M people.

  • Mike F

    “most Chinese still firmly support the direction the government is taking the country.”
    What does that mean?
    My discussions with Chinese people on this have been with young educated yuppies in the major cities.
    If you mean do they firmly support the policy of opening (which may have recently been reversed) and economic reform, then yes, 100%. If there is a revolution in China it won’t be to bring back Cultural Revolution style orthodoxy and economics.
    If you mean do they support the corruption by elites, the nexus of business and government, and the impunity of the powerful even when they commit crimes against the powerless, then 100% no.
    If you mean do they support the current political system, the answer is far more complicated. Every Chinese person I have ever talked to thinks he is qualified to vote for his leaders. But he is usually much more equivocal about whether all Chinese people are qualified to vote for China’s leaders. The most common comparison people raise is India. Everyone who is doing well in China is terrified of turning the country into another India. They want more political space and freedom of speech, assembly, and religion but they don’t know if it would be worth the cost if China’s poor suddenly demanded higher taxes, redistributional government policies, etc.

  • Anon

    The Pew survey does not even try to answer whether the Chinese people are satisfied with their government and that is the key question, but an answer to which will be difficult to obtain.

  • svenrund

    I don’t think a Chinese or a Foreigner can speak for ALL of China. Some say foreigner only may know a few Chinese but really how many person does the average Chinese person know beside family a few local friends and maybe a few in another province. If you look at statistic there have been much more protest every year in China so does this mean people are more happy or less happy? It is obvious that there is more problem that has come with development. The problem now is everyone wants to be the best. Best school, best food, best children, best job, best car, best husband or wife, power and money. In a society that worships a God of materialism development is only going to bring jealousy and problems of what others have. Many will seek to blame foreigner for the problems in society but what they don’t realize is many of the problems come because over a billion people all want the same thing and the problem in society is their idea of success and chasing the material dream. When China can change this idea “It is glorious to get rich” and instead maybe change to “It is glorious to do you best be honest and be happy with your life” maybe things will change.

  • Salina

    What is so interesting about all this is that those who love China say everyone is happy and those who hate China say nobody is happy, when it has to be something in between but we cannot really know because there are no reliable surveys and so we are stuck to debate these things on forums like this one.

  • Caleb

    hmm i read a few comments saying the surveys say that Chinese people are happy. Well, In china there is no freedom of expression, then how do you expect people to answer honestly? You are not allowed to say anything against the government. You can’t even leave the country if you don’t like the communist policy. The only place in China that is free is Hong Kong since it was under the British crown till 2000. It still is said to be very different form the rest of China. A country without freedom of expression, how is that gonna do any good to the people of the nation?