Google Buzz As China Play. Is Google REALLY Raising The Stakes?
For many reasons, we have so far pretty much stayed away from the Google-China kerfuffle. The most important reason for our not writing about it is that we simply do not see ourselves as having anything new or noteworthy to add to the debate. That has not really changed in that about all I am doing today is cribbing from a really thought provoking Absurdity, Allegory and China (AAC) post, entitled, "Google Buzz and China."
So why now and why that post?
Well, that post posits that Google has debuted Buzz now as a bargaining chip in dealing with the Chinese government. Buzz is, right now, pretty much the only major Western social networking platform with a nice channel into China. Now I have no idea what Google's intent was in putting Buzz live when it did, and I do not even really much care.
But what I do care about and is another point AAC raises, which is that if Google refuses to uncouple Buzz from Gmail and if China refuses to back down on its restrictive policy on Western social networking sites, Gmail end up, shall we say, losing its way in China, and that would be a huge deal.
It would be a huge deal because almost without exception, every ex-pat in China uses gmail in one capacity or another.
Google in China just got a little more interesting.
What do you think?
Comment Warning. If you use words in your comments that could trigger bad things, I will change them.
Comments (18)
Read through and enter the discussion by using the form at the endtheAdmiral - February 17, 2010 11:09 AM
Dan - You bring up very important points. One interesting thing to add. Gmail has two methods of connection. http and https.
Key difference being that the https connection method means your data is encrypted. That means your email and your buzz can't be filtered by a firewall.
The only way for China to block buzz would be to block gmail's https connection completely.
I have to believe that the gov _must_ do this to maintain the level of internet control that is the status quo. It's just a matter of time.
If they don't block the https, I for one consider that a significant relaxing of the controls.
Silly - February 17, 2010 2:43 PM
Most expats are smart enough to just VPN, I'd guess.
O'Bin L. Adin - February 17, 2010 3:40 PM
China, Russia their commies. What do you expect.
Google took the money and helped the government control the browsers. If you sleep with dogs don't surprised if you wake up with flees. Serves Google right. Confusion.
Ok, thats all for now. I need to move again to another camp.
Twofish - February 17, 2010 3:50 PM
I don't think this analysis makes any sense. If Google wanted to raise the stakes with the Chinese government, they could first try uncensoring www.google.cn which as far as I can tell is still censored.
Also I don't think it really would be a big deal if the Chinese government blocked gmail since it's trivial to get around the block with a VPN and proxy server.
Tom Baker - February 17, 2010 10:55 PM
Your link to the origin of "kerfuffle" is incorrect and US centric. In more recent times it was in fact raised to prominence by the British TV comedy "Little Britain" and especially the paraplegic character of Andy and his carer. Except it was all a con, Andy was in fact fit and well and was just sponging off the state. Kindly give credit where credit is due, and not all to US culture.
uk visa - February 18, 2010 1:52 AM
One minute Google is fighting tooth and nail to keep things private then it buzzes and opens up lots of info that was previously private:
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article7030348.ece
"One woman said that it meant an abusive former husband could now follow her every move. Journalists, cheating spouses and those who said that they were being harassed by former partners said that the system had caused problems as it could reveal with whom they were in contact."
Whilst inconsistency and hypocrisy aren't 'evil' they aren't ideal.
Sam - February 18, 2010 2:53 AM
Most expats in China I know (I live in Shanghai) use their corporate email accounts, not gmail.
Anonymous - February 18, 2010 5:30 AM
Some comments about what you wrote as discussed on Buzz...
Damjan DeNoble
Did Google threaten to pull out of China partly because they anticipated that Google Buzz would lead to harmonization of Gmail? My Over/Under for how long Gmail continues to work in China is 50 days.
Matt Schrader - Doubt that Google Buzz had much to do with it. I'm sure if they wanted they could offer a China-specific version of Gmail that had buzz stripped out. Think it's likely still the principle of the thing (freedom of information) that's driving the decision-making.Feb 11
Damjan DeNoble - Matt, can't a brother do some conspiracy theorizing for fun? Must I be serious on all mediums of communication? C'mon, expand on this crazy theory with me.
Seriously though - 50 days for google buzz, max. Google groups is already down.Feb 11
Matt Schrader - Nope, there's a two-beer minimum before I lower the analytical deflector shields.
Groups has been down for awhile, but yeah, I really doubt it'll even take them that long to cut Buzz off at the knees. Don't think it's possible from a technical point of view to just block Buzz (I'm not an engineer obviously, this is just a notion), so it'll probably result in the blockage of Gmail in China.
Possible complicating factors/wild cards in all this are
1) the ongoing negotiations between Google and the ChiComs (figure that's what I should call 'em while I'm back in tierra americana) re: Google's possible exit from the Chinese search market
2) how long it takes Buzz to make it onto the ChiComs' radar. I figure they have to be watching Google very closely now, but I don't know how long it will be before awareness of this new feature percolates its way up to people who actually make decisions.
I wonder if @Jimmy Goodrich knows anything about #2?
I LOVE that you can go back and edit your posts in this thing. A godsend.Feb 11D
Damjan DeNoble - Random Thought: Did Google look at the fact that a bunch of self professed 'smart' people use their product and decide to create something where those people can sound off publicly on any topic that will show off that 'smartness' to all of their friends and acquaintances? This is absolutely the Prius of twitter clones.
Response: I'm no sure where you stand here - do you think that its possible to decouple buzz and mail, or do you think Gmail will get shut down because decoupling is impossible? I think like any software, it can be decoupled, I'm just not sure that Google is willing to do that for the PRC.
A third factor is how long it takes for Google Buzz to create enough buzz to attract attention. Though, if this is supposed to be included within your second point, I'll just settle for being redundant.EditFeb 11
Matt Schrader - “Random Thought: Did Google look at the fact that a bunch of self professed 'smart' people use their product and decide to create something where those people can sound off publicly on any topic that will show off that 'smartness' to all of their friends and acquaintances? This is absolutely the Prius of twitter clones.“
Well said, sir. When it comes to wasting time, this is like Facebook for smart/productive people. Except, unlike the Prius, this probably won't crash and kill you.
I don't really have a "stand" yet, per se. Just trying to chew through what's going to happen here.
Some more factors to consider:
> PR flak the gov't would take internationally for this move. Iran's already getting some for their recent blockage of Gmail. Honestly, don't think the gov't really cares about this, esp. as they seem to be slipping into a triumphalist "China ascendant" mindset, as pointed out recently by @jfallows@gmail.com and your friend @dan@harrismoure.com over at CLB.
> More importantly, Gmail's used by a significant slice of China's technically-literate white collar upper-middle class. These people have seen all kinds of fun internet goodies taken away from them over the past few years, forcing them to use second-best options provided by either domestic Chinese firms or foreign firms that are willing to play by the Chinese gov't's rules. Blocking Gmail would be the ultimate insult to a lot of these people. Losing Facebook is one thing. Losing access to your email is an electronic disaster of an entirely different order of magnitude. There would be blowback from these folks, a lot more than we've seen following any of the other blockages to date, I would hazard to say.Feb 11
Damjan DeNoble - I gotta get back to some things but three points.
1) When I say the Prius of Twitter clones, it's somewhat of a backhand compliment. It's not that this is for smart people - it's that this is designed for people who really want other people to know they are smart.
2) This to me is a vast improvement over twitter's and facebooks conversational abilities. It's accessible to everyone I talk with anyway, and it's long form. I am aware that this makes me the proud owner of an online Prius, but I've never been shy about being an online blow hard. Like Nestor Santana once told me "You've never lived until you've managed two blogs at the same time" .
3) Messing with the educated middle class is at the root of almost every revolution. China knows this. I predict a warning before any gmail shut downs occur. Even then though, I don't know if it makes much of a difference. China's most literate folks all know how to spell VPN.Feb 11
Matt Schrader - I've got some 事情 as well, so quickly:
1) Agreed. Proud to be a card-carrying member of the blowhard class, myself (in writing, at least).
2) Agreed, agreed, and agreed (re: the three assertions made in the first two sentences).
3) All kinds of stuff wrong with this paragraph. Luckily, that just gives us something to hash out later :D
Damjan DeNoble - I think that Dan Harris might not get too much conversation on this topic since people have said all they need to about buzz on buzz.
Jimmy G - Wow, this is quite the thread. My sense is that gmail will not be blocked. It is used by too many people in China, and would actually have an impact on economic development as the free flow of information is critical to ensure vibrancy in the market. With gmail and google the greater challenge for the PRC gov is that everything on those platforms are exchanged via encrypted SSL, which can be a headache for law enforcement, ie tracking down dissidents. Now that SSL is default, this means the PSB will simply have to be more intrusive in their means of intelligence collection (installing spyware on host computers like green dam for example), which is no fun for them as security goons are inherently lazy.
My sense is that for Buzz, the government will probably first try to block it separately (not sure if this is possible), but will more likely use it to their advantage and (a) propagate it with the 五毛党 while (b) tracking the conversations made on buzz.
But then again we can't rule out a major crackdown if buzz is used during a major social disturbance like we saw with Facebook in xinjiang3:50 am
YourNameHere - February 18, 2010 7:20 AM
Were it not for VPN (and the one I have been using lately has so far not been caught by the boys down the street), it would be painful to lose GMail.
I doubt that taking Buzz live had anything to do with China, though it is interesting in retrospect. And I don't know anyone who actually uses Buzz. The 80+ people in my GMail contact list who also have GMail accounts have yet to post anything there.
If it comes to pass, shutting down GMail will of course make a mess out of the Nexus One phone I started using recently. But with the huge investments that China Unicom and China Mobile are making in Android, I wonder if that will be enough to settle the "kerfuffle".
Dan - February 18, 2010 8:23 AM
Tom Baker,
Britain. Yeah. I think I've heard of it. That's that tiny island off the coast of France, right?
Dan - February 18, 2010 8:24 AM
Sam,
Yes, a lot of expats in China use their corporate email, but I would bet most of them also have a Gmail account and I would also bet that a good percentage of those corporate email accounts are run through Gmail.
My firm's email is not run through Gmail, but we are always thinking of switching and the reason is because it just seems that Gmail has the best rate of getting through in China.
Sam Crispin - February 18, 2010 9:26 PM
Gmail has the best chance of getting through in China? Dan where are you based? You're obviously not using a China server. Are you in the US? Companies in China either use a China server or one based in the US. Gmail is not all that common amongst business people in China and is mainly used only for personal use. I'd be interested to learn where your server is located given your comments and whether you experience problems if you're not based in China getting emails through. If so, it appears to be a growing problem.
Renaud - February 19, 2010 7:25 AM
Good points, Dan. I use Google Apps (i.e. Gmail for email) for my company because it is so superior to its alternatives. But I kept the original email plan in parallel, since China may block Gmail soon (remember, a few months ago they blocked Google Docs).
Using a VPN for my own use is fine, but I can't expect my staff to do it, especially when they use public/hotel computers.
Thomas Rippel - February 19, 2010 10:26 AM
What if China blocks Gmail or Google completely and Google turns around and makes a free VPN available?
Full blog post here: ChinaOutsider.com
Richard - February 20, 2010 12:46 AM
I use Google Apps for corporate email in China, though I think its only a matter of time before Gmail is blocked in China.
Jaap - February 20, 2010 3:44 PM
Proxy and VPN are not the way to go for using something daily and diverse (laptop, iPhone, quick check in internet cafe) like GMail. Besides, Google uses a superior network that is very reliable, even when another earthquake hits the ocean floor. Not to compare with your 20$ vpn.
Thank you Buzz!
PS, I don't have the illusion the Chinese valuate the importance of Google for our industry: IT. We actually have to teach new staff (IT master graduates) how to use the Google resources: Search, Google Code, Groups and blogspot (where many developers post their newest technological insights). That is where you can find all the software innovations of the past ten years for free. I guess they just want to stick to developing software for TV remote controls.
Thanks again Buzz!
FOARP - February 23, 2010 6:21 AM
"If you use words in your comments that could trigger bad things, I will change them."
Does this include posting "bloody mary" three times fast?
robertb - February 24, 2010 7:40 PM
@Sam, I don't know about you, but personally I don't care to have my company's IT manager reading my personal e-mails to my family.
I, and every other expat I know in China, use the company account for business communications and a Gmail account for personal communications.