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China As Next Superpower? The Five Things It’s Gonna Take.

By Dan Harris on Posted in Recommended Reading

Just finished a very interesting and very nicely done three part series over at the brand spanking new View to China blog, written by London based lawyer, Geraldine Johns-Putra. The series is on the five big issues confronting China in its ascension to superpower status and it is entitled, “China as the next Superpower? Top 5 Make or Break Issues.” Part 1 is here, part 2 is here and part 3 is here.
I recommend it.

  • http://twofish.wordpress.com/ Twofish

    I think talking about superpowers is a bad idea. The notion of a superpower was invented to describe the US/Soviet relationship, but I don’t think it accurate describes the dynamics of anything after 1990.
    Right now the world has one “hyperpower” and about three or four “great powers” (EU, China, India, Russia). Also we have “non-national” forces that are at work (religion, diasporas, international terrorism, and a globalized economy). There are no superpowers, and I don’t really see any likelihood of anyone (including China) becoming one. China will grow, but I doubt it will grow more dramatically than India or Russia, which means that the relative level of Chinese powers in relations to its neighbors (particularly India) is likely to be the same.
    In my mind right now China is a “power” and has about as much influence on world affairs as the EU or India. I don’t see much either interest or ability for China to become a “peer competitor” to the United States. What’s likely to happen is that the major powers form international standards and agreements to deal with global issues.

  • adf

    I’m in a little known backwater town in china right now, and even here, the pace of change and determination of the people is awesome to witness.I think the rest of the world is still asleep as to how far china has come and how fast it continues to develop. I really think one day not that far in the future, the US and other nations will wake up to this and be shocked at what china really has accomplished.

  • http://twofish.wordpress.com/ Twofish

    I think those are answers to the wrong questions. I think better questions are:
    1) What is a superpower?
    2) Does China really want to be a superpower?
    3) What should China do if it *doesn’t* want to be a superpower?

  • http://adamdanielmezei.com Adam Daniel Mezei

    @adf | I agree and felt precisely the same way when I was recently over there. And I don’t think it’s “panda hugging” either to say so. Good observation and ditto to you for the novel angle on the superpower hype — as per usual — @Twofish.

  • http://www.medivisas.com/ uk visa

    I too think the ‘superpower’ concept is outdated and tends to skew the conversation in the wrong direction; imho it’s better to look at the net export of capital to see matters with clarity; given that the figures linked to are for 2008:
    http://topforeignstocks.com/2009/06/13/the-top-net-capital-importers-and-exporters-of-capital-in-2008/
    @Twofish – ‘What’s likely to happen is that the major powers form international standards and agreements to deal with global issues.’
    OK, but China will be writing the content…

  • http://twofish.wordpress.com/ Twofish

    There’s the old saying, if someone owes you a million dollars and can’t pay it’s their problem. If someone owes you a billion dollars and can’t pay, it’s your problem. The fact that the US owes so much money to China, gives China leverage over the US, but it also gives US leverage over China. It basically means that everyone has to be nice to each other, which isn’t a bad thing.
    @Twofish – ‘What’s likely to happen is that the major powers form international standards and agreements to deal with global issues.’
    OK, but China will be writing the content…
    So will the US/EU/India/Russia/Saudi Arabia. Unless something really strange happens, I just can’t see China having the same sort of world domination that the US has or had. It’s not that China won’t grow, but if China grows, and so does India and the Arab world, then you’ll have a balance of power that will keep China in check.
    And I don’t think that China really wants world domination. China is profoundly nationalist, but it’s not internationalist like the US.
    Something that you figure out when you talk to most Americans is that most people in the United States really think that the world would be better off if most people were American, and part of the motivation in Afghanistan and Iraq is to turn Afghans and Iraqis into Americans. China really doesn’t care about this so I just don’t see Chinese being willing to spend blood and treasure on the types of things that Americans are willing to spend things on.

  • donzelion

    Twofish: “The fact that the US owes so much money to China…basically means that everyone has to be nice to each other, which isn’t a bad thing.”
    Similar arguments were raised in 1912 and again in 1928…interdependence doesn’t mean everyone has to be nice, rather, most folks must be, while some benefit immensely by being otherwise (albeit temporarily).
    As for the original article, item #4 – China in Africa – is the most interesting, poorly told trend. Chinese do the “neo-colonial capitalist thing” in an unprecedented manner. Expatriate merchants and professionals are hardly novel. Vertically integrated expatriate workforces are.

  • http://newviewit.com Derek Hildenbrand

    Developing creativity and innovation within the local population will be high on the list. Inefficient management was always one of the biggest problems I had with small to medium sized business in China

  • justhuman

    i dont think superpower status still enjoys its value.Differences between biggest & begger economies are continuously decreasing.Of course china is rising fast and so rising india and other near economies.The future is gonna be a multipolar world where all nations will have to be dependent on each other and will have to anyway cooperate with each other.

  • liu

    Well I don’t know too much
    About politics but I strongly
    believe if china were to
    Ask for the money
    United States owes
    I doubt it could
    Repay them and
    Well. History does
    Repeat itself
    From the persians,
    Romans, mongols, ect.
    To even the spanish,
    And british.
    My point is
    The “super power”
    Eventually falls

  • bab

    the population is growing fast and many young generation dont have job so they wish ww3 will happen soon ,therefore ww3 will happen becaz of frustration and many problems ….

  • http://- Nicholas (Singaporean)

    I personally do not really think that China will become the next superpower. However, now, we are facing with so much pressure from the media. The medias are always talking that China will become the next emerging superpower in the next five decades. Firstly, lets change the situation, if America does not invent any new technology, the chinese will also not be able to duplicate and mass produce them. Secondly, I personally think that China cares too much about their GDP growths, but did not care about bilateral relationship. It is because, during the late 20th century, where the Tiananmen incident broke out, the chinese were all so quiet towards other foreign media. However, when China becomes the first one to get out of the global recession, they roared the world by not listening too much to America. Thirdly, I personally live in Singapore. Singapore is a country, where too much influx of China(Chinese) entering the country. They came in as foreign students. However, most of them are prostitutes, working part-time occupation. Hence, the China(Chinese) picture is still not being either treated or respected as good as the Americans. Fourthly, Dr Simon Tay, Singaporeans said that China(Chinese) are being connected to India through the western software. Logically, without western modernization, there will not be a prosperous China. Fifthly, I am a Singaporean, where I am not a fan of ‘Made in China’ products. In conclusion, it may be possible with the integration between America and China to produce a better world. For students, it might be still beneficial to master China. It is because, it is still very hard to predict the coming decades.
    Your Sincerely:
    Nicholas (Singaporean)

  • Larry Tate

    To really earn the title of superpower one would assume that the superpowers military is bar none far more powerful than any other country or unions military. In a nutshell I have just described the USA. The US has been envolved heavily in war in the last two decades for 9+ years. Does anyone realize the real life trial and error war technologiy advancements the US has undergone. That being said, the far greater possibility of US defeat other than militarally is an implosion of the US economy and and the struggle for power in the US perhaps resulting in some unforseen foreign alliances with China or Russia. Most likely, this will not happend as the IMF keeps a close lid on the three card monty game they like to play, printing gobs of bailout money to keep the game afloat.
    There is no doubt the US has a growing population of noncontributers weakening resources however I think this is offset by the civil unrest in China and Russia. But then again nationalism is pretty powerful, particulary in countries where the majority of the population is kept uninformed or propagandized. Historically, its the country with the biggest guns that wins the game. Statistically speaking however, the serious tragedy that awaits the world will most likely be some natural disaster or pandemic. Something like that could really shift things around.

  • issah

    its quite obvious as the statistics show us that the chinese economy is the strongest hence the huge possibility of they being the new superpower but the question we got to ask ourselves is are they willing to take the huge responsibility lets face it the us resolves so many world issues and so much of its taxpayers money is drained on international matters such as the dark continent and afganistan i think china will turn down the chance of being the super power due to financial reasons

  • daniel

    @Nicholas my Chinese friends in Singapore are all studying in Ivy Leagues schools in the States or Oxbridge. They are smarter and more hardworking than Singaporeans. Singaporeans are too arrogant, naive and proud, for no reason. And eventually they are going to pay.