Sex And The Olympics. Sex And China Visas. A Beijing Brothel And The Magic 8-Ball.
Josh Gartner over at Cup of Cha blog notes how a brothel near one of his favorite restaurants in Beijing recently closed, apparently as part of a governmental effort to clean things up before the Olympics. Josh assumes the brothel will be back after the Olympics, if not before, and I am guessing he will prove right on this.
In addition to cracking down on houses of ill-repute, the Chinese government has both stepped up its pursuit of visa violators and greatly tightened the requirements for securing visas. The question on visas is whether they, like the brothel near Josh's restaurant, will eventually be returning to their status quo of maybe six months ago. My prediction is that things will definitely loosen up again after the Olympics, but they will remain considerably tighter than in the past.
In particular, I expect F visas (business) and L visas (tourist) will become much easier to get after the Olympics, but I expect the difficulties in getting them extended within China will remain. I also expect multiple entry visas will be easier to get than now, but will remain more difficult than in the past. We are starting to hear of a tightening of educational requirements for Z visas (employee) and I expect that type of visa to revert back to "normal" after the Olympics. I base this predictions on a combination of conversations with trusted and knowledgeable people in China (some of whom have themselves been discussing these things with governmental officials), my experience and knowledge of how other countries handle these visa situations, and my Magic 8 ball.*
* In the interest of full disclosure, I asked the 8-ball whether Chinese visas would revert back to the way they were six months ago and the ball told me two times in a row to ask the question later. Those of us experienced with the Magic 8-ball know that when it gives the same answer twice in a row, it is 100% accurate. I interpreted its telling me to ask again later to mean that even the Chinese government has not yet conclusively decided what it will do post-Olympics. The 8-ball answered "definitely" regarding the return of the Beijing brothel after the Olympics.
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Comments
Like what happens in many countries, eventually officials run out of tea money and things go back to "normal".
Posted by: Mike | June 8, 2008 8:33 PM
At which point did the Olympics become anyone's?
Posted by: FOARP | June 9, 2008 7:52 AM
Ah, the magic 8 ball. Very accurate (or at least as good as anyone else).
Posted by: Doug | June 9, 2008 2:44 PM
who will win the european cup? - "No way !" (read "Norway", assuming it refers to some future tournament, not necessarily football).
Is [ONS] pregnant? "Maybe". Oh dear...
Posted by: AG | June 9, 2008 8:14 PM
A question remains whether Josh will continue frequenting that particular "one of his favorite restaurants" until the brothel returns. Does the Magic 8 ball so inform, O Great Oracle?
Posted by: Law Office of Todd L. Platek | June 10, 2008 5:55 AM
Maybe it's just me, but it seems that the visa restrictions were connected to China's torch relay fiasco. There's no way to prove this counterfactual, but I would guess that the restrictions would not now be in place if the world had showered China with love during their relay. (And, of course, the earlier Tibet issues fueled the torch relay protests.)
The degree to which visa restrictions are loosened after the Olympics will depend on the degree to which foreigners behave themselves in Beijing this summer.
China probably misses the tourist dollars they're not getting as a result of the crackdown (tourism is apparently down 5% from a year ago), but that's a small price to pay to reduce the threats to social stability and the Party's claim to legitimacy.
Posted by: G.E. Anderson | June 10, 2008 8:12 AM