China Law Blog

Given the way in which genetic engineering and hydroponics could (with proper funding) raise production to levels far greater than now possible the long-term situation world-wide isn't much to worry about.

In the short term, however, talking about China's food shortages is just a short hand way of talking about the land reform issue. Agriculture in China is incredibly labour-intensive and extremely inefficient, with most farmers working small plots with hand tools and fertiliser which is only 'man-made' in the most basic sense of the phrase! The kind of agricultural revolution which enabled the industrial explosion of the late 18th and 19th centuries in Europe are still yet to happen in China. The longer the Chinese government delays reform, the harder it will be for them to ensure a cheap supply of food for the burgeoning populations in the cities, as people are leaving the farms for the big cities in increasing numbers.

With global warming, Siberia will be a lot more productive in grain crops in the near future. That's a huge supply of food - huge land mass, long day light during growing seasons, flat - great for mechanized farming. Just think about the potentials.

Would this be the same Paul Ehrlich that predicted in his 1968 book "Population Bomb" that overpopulation would cause mass starvation in the 1970s and 80s (check it out on wikipedia if you're not in China or just do a google search for it)? And also the same guy who believed that we would be running out of resources when he made that famous bet with Julian Simon in the 80s? A perpetual chicken little and neo-malthusian, Ehrlich has been persistently wrong and comically so. I'm surprised that he gets any more credibility than the crazy people who yammer on about the world coming to an end on street corners around the world.

Either you allow (1)foreign farm machinery firms import to china, or (2) they wait and let Chinese designers and engineers develop their own equipment.

If (1) this his could be a boon to farm machinery consulting and education services. Similar to IBM/Lenovo.

Hydroponics? Where's the water going to come from?

And it's not just land reform and mechanisation/industrialisation of agriculture. Arable land, which was in desperately short supply to begin with, is being gobbled up (often illegally) by urban sprawl and polluting factories.

It's the real and existing water shortage that will contribute to food shortages. No water = no arable land.

New desalinization technology R&D is underway in Saudi Arabia as we speak, funded by of all firms IBM.

The race is on and with the earths surface composed of so much H2O...its only a matter of time that the variable of water becomes a non issue.

Be very critical of the "water shortage" arguments coming out of the ivory towers these days...

If you think that article is chicken littleish, please read the oil drum for a comparison.

Food safety, food production viability and efficiency, and the logistics of food transportation and storage are all important issues in any area, but especially one in China in that it has such an enormous population, one that will have to make up shortages in its own production via purchases on an increasingly expensive world market. [8th grade grammar teacher kill me now for the run on sentence.]

While I do not live in China now, I spent several years based in Shanghai and criss crossed western Zhejiang in the back of a barely padded mini van more times than my sore ass wants to recall. In approximately 80 day trips in remote countryside, this is what I noted:

Land plots are extremely small,
These land plots are worked "collectively" at labor intensive planting and harvesting times.
Petrol based fertilizers are used extensively, and from the observation of several drivers, excessively.
Aqua culture (fish, shrimp, and pearls) is pervasive.
River transportation was extensive.
Factories were increasingly put on better quality land.

Based on these observations, experiences, and my own research, I have come to the following conclusions regarding the land use practices in Western Zhejiang.

1. Mechanization is possible and would definitely increase efficiency, and quite possibly, yields. This would come at great social cost, though; the assigned plot in rural areas acts as something of a welfare system for the countryside. If you can't make it in the city you can always go home and eat (with backbreaking labor). If the land is farmed with machines, not only would enormous amounts of semi-literate, semi-skilled, and aged farm workers be displaced and need to be cared for, but one of the few remaining safety nets would be removed.

2. The excessive use of petrol based fertilizers has got to be entering the food supply through both overuse on food crops (soybeans, rice, vegetables, etc), as well as through run-off that can then enter the bloodstream through intake of aqua culture. All the fish, shrimp, eel, and crabs you are eating have been bathing in the stuff for years. This cannot have a good effect on one's digestive system.

3. The creation of factories on farmland is an enormous problem as it: removes productive agricultural land and may lead to replacement costs on foodstuffs being higher; creates the potential for friction in the community as land assignments must be redrawn among the peasantry; creates the potential for abuse if the factories are not up to code or run properly - in the sense of both labor AND environmental problems.

Finally, there is the problem of water. It did not seem to be a problem in the area south west of Tai Hu, but it can become one (note their algae problem). Water can be problematic as it runs out in the north and becomes increasingly polluted (thus expensive to clean and dirty to use to grow foods).

Steve mentioned de-salting of water. That is a potential saviour, but it will be both expensive to process as well as expensive to pump in land. Even if the systems were up and running tomorrow, how much would it cost to grow crops or be used for industrial processes in the interior?

Steve has no idea what he is talking about. Desalinization is the last resort because of the cost of the plants, the cost of constantly replacing the osmotic filters and of course power for the pumping.

NH...your arguemnts are amusing and based in the here and now using current technology. Osmotic filters, water pumping....sound like growth businesses to me.

These water shortage arguements are created by external think tank guys, in order to control and divy up private ownership of natural resources. The guys in Beijing are aware of this, and it will not be tolerated.

The water shortage arguments are created by rapidly melting glaciers in the Himalayas- glaciers that feed the rivers that feed roughly one third of humanity- and the chronic abuse of lakes, rivers and aquifers.

Osmotic filters are current and future technology for desalinization. The water shortage arguments are created when the Yellow river doesn't make it all the way to the E. China Sea or by massive sandstorms or by the desert encroaching on Beijing.

The guys in Beijing get all the water they want because they are the big bosses. Any peasants that stand up to protest get stomped.
But all the silver iodide in the world won't help China, it is dying of thirst.