China Law Blog

One to look out for in the next few years.

India’s 1.1bn population is rapidly catching up with China’s 1.3bn. But India has only about 10m manufacturing jobs, compared with about 150m in China. So there are simply more opportunities in China to improve your life

WOW, I really didn't know that! Thanks for sharing this.

I read somewhere sometime ago that India is the turtle and China the hare. In the end India wins the race because of the checks and balances provided by its form of government.

The danger for China is the very authoritarian system which provides her with some of its current advantages. But it pays it with no transparency, no accountability no democracy. And do not forget the corpses in the closet, quite a lot of them. When tensions do come, not a good combination

Every time I make my mind in investing my money in something to do with China, something "authoritarian" happens in the country that makes me to take decision back.

I do not think that China is going to collapse overnight, according to some experts it should have happened several year ago... I think the Chinese have the possibility to pull it off after all. The Chinese people will to raise again is a powerful force, but the system is too unstable for my liking.
Besides, lately I feel some nationalistic tension between PLA(military) and CCP(civil) that make me worry.

For the moment, as medium to long term investment, I am putting my money in India.
So far quite profitable.
I do not say that China is not an interesting place to invest, but I am afraid I am arriving late to the party, usually not a good thing. And I am not very sure how long it is going to last.
Besides.... all the nice girls are already taken ;-)

My two cents.

"Besides, lately I feel some nationalistic tension between PLA(military) and CCP(civil) that make me worry."

Many military bumps between the US and China are being attributed to the PLA deciding that it is better suited to handle certain aspects of China's
foreign policy, especially regarding the US, Japan, territorial disputes and securing natural resources.

The CCP is not in a position to be able to resist, it is the PLA that keeps the CCP alive and six-four proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt. The PSB is all that the CCP has for a "force" but the PLA would quickly squish them in a real power struggle.

As for the race between China and India, China's' central planning served it well in the beginning but now the price has come due. National economies, especially when integrated with the world at any level, cannot be centrally planned. Neither can innovation. Silicon Valley "happened", Bangalore "happened"
and there is Chinese equivalent to the Tata empire (because they are all at least partially state owned and all are state subsidized).

Buddy, why look at manufacturing only? And by the way manufacturing brings pollution.
Thanks

Thanks for the link. And props to Rob Gifford, not just for the piece about Hefei (and I agree with you about it being one of the least likely candidates to be China's Silicon Valley) but for much of what he writes about the country.

All the commonly touted advantages that India is purported to enjoy: democracy, rule of law, and English proficiency are legacies of the British. Legacies which they have had for the last 60 years in which China has left them in the dust.

@Jing:

Speaking of dust, India does not need to consider moving its capital because of its own sloppiness, resource mismanagement and gross inefficiency.
http://shanghaiist.com/2008/01/02/some_great_envi.php

Concerning the next silicon valley several cities in Jiangsu province with Shanghai are also vying for that title.
Suzhou, Wuxi and Nanjing have all built large tech parks. My money is on Nanjing as they have more Enginneering feeder universities. Shanghai seems to be ramping up though so perhaps it will be the next valley.

I have heard of Chengdu and Dalian as possible places as well. Chinese like others love clustering companies so which site will come on top?
have fun,
Simon;)

Dalian. Intel recently established their own "Intel Town" for their new facility.

It's easier to set up manufacturing plants & hire non & semi-skilled workers than educate and train web-designers and IT engineers. Having said that, both countries ought to learn from each other.

@nhy: Although I agree with your criticism of BJ, have you been to New Delhi? Not much difference - except for the dust.