China Violence, China Peace
Just came across an interesting worldwide survey called the Global Peace Index, ranking the "peacefulness" of 121 nations, including China (h/t to the Private Sector Development Blog). China ranks dead middle at 60th:
The study was done by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which describes itself as follows:
The world leader in global business intelligence
The Economist Intelligence Unit is the world's foremost provider of country, industry and management analysis. Founded in 1946 when a director of intelligence was appointed to serve The Economist, the Economist Intelligence Unit is now a leading research and advisory firm with more than 40 offices worldwide. For nearly 60 years, the Economist Intelligence Unit has delivered vital business intelligence to influential decision-makers around the world. Our extensive international reach and unfettered independence make us the most trusted and valuable resource for international companies, financial institutions, universities and government agencies.
The study describes its measures of peacefulness as follows:
The difficulties in defining the concept of peace may partly explain why there have been so few attempts to measure states of peace across nations.
This project has approached the task on two fronts� the first aim is to produce a scoring model and global peace index that ranks 120 nations by their relative states of peace using 24 indicators. The indicators have been selected as being the best available datasets that reflect the incidence or absence of peace, and contain both quantitative data and qualitative scores from a range of trusted sources. The second aim is to use the underlying data and results from the Global Peace Index to begin an investigation into the relative importance of a range of potential determinants or �drivers� that may influence the creation and nurturance of peaceful societies, both internally and externally.
As with all indexes of this type, there are issues of bias and arbitrariness in the factors that are chosen to assess peacefulness and, even more seriously, in assigning weights to the different indicators (measured on a comparable and meaningful scale) to produce a single synthetic measure.
The study looks at both internal and external violence, including things like murder rate, people in jail, and military expenditures. Its methodology is explained here and its rankings can be found here.
The top ten most peaceful nations are as follows:
- Norway
- New Zealand
- Denmark
- Ireland
- Japan
- Finland
- Sweden
- Canada
- Portugal
- Austria
Singapore is 29th, South Korea is 32nd, Vietnam is 35th, Taiwan 36th, Malaysia 37th, England 49th, China 60th, Cambodia 85th, the United States 96th, Philippines 100th, Thailand 105th, Russia 118th, and Iraq 121st.
The Wall Street Journal's, James Taranto finds much to fault with this study:
Today both Norway and Germany are peaceful because America entered World War II and because America spends an outsize share of its GDP on defense in order to protect its allies from aggressive threats. But the Economist index faults the U.S. for the strength that makes possible Europe's peace. Of the 20 "most peaceful" countries, 12 are U.S. allies, and another five are formally neutral European states--i.e., free-riding nonmembers of the NATO alliance.
Another example of the survey's absurd bias: Israel places No. 119, ahead of only Sudan and Iraq. But of course most Israelis would like nothing more than to live in peace, as would their leaders. They are forced into frequent wars because they are surrounded by enemy states, almost all of which The Economist reckons as more "peaceful"--including Iran, which comes 22 places above Israel despite its pursuit of nuclear weapons and its president's vow to "wipe Israel off the map." Syria, at No. 77, actually places well ahead of the U.S., despite its support for terrorists in Iraq, Lebanon and Israel.
As do I. My core criticism is that the study is so amorphous I do not see it having any impact on anyone. I do not see it influencing any of the ranked countries, nor do I see it influencing anyone in terms of where they do business or even on where they travel.
Does this study have any value beyond as conversational piece?

Comments (24)
Read through and enter the discussion by using the form at the endnanheyangrouchuan - June 10, 2007 6:47 PM
Cuba and China outrank Mexico in "peacfulness"? how was that measured? Oh yeah, India is very bad too even though they haven't invaded anyone and built their nuke arsenal in direct response to Pakistan's.
Canada and Denmark have threatened to send destroyers to patrol various thawing islands near Greenland, how is that peaceful?
And certain countries were left out to avoid boosting the US's "lack of peacefulness".
Idiots.
chriswaugh_bj - June 10, 2007 7:07 PM
Well, my first objection is that even though New Zealand is ranked number 2, they somehow seem to have dropped us off the map. Or are China Law Blog's margins to narrow?
I would say James Taranto's objections have more to do with the study treading on his ideological toes than reason. America's [ahem] assertive military posture may help keep Norway and Germany safe, happy and peaceful, but there is more to the equation than just American military spending and deployment, and America's assertiveness has a pretty big downside for people in places like Iraq. And Israel? Well, I hardly bother reading the news from Israel anymore, because it's the same every day. Should be called the 'olds' really, as in 'same old'. Hamas fired rockets into Israel, a suicide bomber took out a bus or a pizza joint, Israel sent tanks and helicopters in to the West Bank or Gaza or wherever to blow up what it says was a Hamas bomb factory. Israeli army bulldozers knock over the houses of suicide bombers, leaving their families homeless. Can't give countries a higher ranking just 'cos they're on "our side".
And I'd agree that Iran's and Syria's rankings look a bit dodgy, but then again, one could take issue with his characterisation of those countries. Can't demand countries have a lower ranking just because they're on "the other side".
But yes, it's just some silly conversation piece. Shouldn't be taken too seriously.
Rene - June 10, 2007 10:20 PM
I agree with Chris's criticism of Taranto's fairly hawkish position, although I do think that the ranking (if it is needed at all)probably should be more nuanced than just looking at gross military spending. Yes, the US does spend the most on the military, but it also contributes the biggest portion of the UN's budget. Those facts would seem to go hand in hand. More generally, looking at the method, it doesn't seem to include foreign aid spending, and so there does seem to be a bias.
What is the import of this report? Well, for starters, I can see it being used on next year's China's report on US human rights.
Duncan - June 11, 2007 2:26 AM
Oh dear. As a contributor to the rankings on this one, and for China in particular, I suppose I should weigh in. (I should emphasise that I'm speaking as an individual rather than for the company here, and that I was only involved in putting together a few countries' scores rather than assembling the methodology, so my understanding of some of the details is possibly a little fuzzy).
1) Of course it's a conversation piece, much like the Economist's Bic Mac index. This doesn't mean that it lacks value. It can highlight certain issues and stimulate discussion among policy makers and the press, as it clearly has done.
2) It's a piece of sponsored research, undertaken for a rich philanthropist (Steve Killelea - see the recent article "Give Peace a Rating" in the Economist for more on him), and thus while the EIU maintains editorial independence, the study's methodology will inevitably reflect to an extent the issues etc that he is particularly interested in.
3) I agree that free riding is a significant criticism of the end result, but (as Chris has already mentioned) the US is hardly a global exemplar when it comes to spreading peace and harmony.
4) I think what a lot of the commentary has missed is that a lot of the scoring is actually determined at internal peace rather than international action. Countries with civil conflicts (Israel, Sri Lanka, Lebanon etc) pack out the lower ranks.
5) I suspect the value of such an index may be limited at first, beyond its use as a coversation piece and filler for endless NGO press releases. However, there's been nothing like it before (certainly covering so many countries), and it may prove useful in future years to see how it correlates with other factors, for example economic growth.
China Law Blog - June 11, 2007 6:49 AM
nh --
I would agree the results of this study are somewhat incredible.
China Law Blog - June 11, 2007 6:53 AM
chriswaugh_bj --
NZ, isn't that where Vikings come from? Actually, with the new HBO show, Flight of the Conchords having just come out, the leaving out of NZ is particularly egregious.
I think Taranto's point is that there is more to violence than just numbers. I guess by this study's standards, the US's violence rating would have gone way up for our fighting back against Japan in WWII.
I am not sure this study even makes for good conversation as I find it so absurd I have not even bothered to talk about it with anyone. I would call it weekend blog filler.
China Law Blog - June 11, 2007 6:55 AM
Rene --
Interesting that you label Taranto's views as hawkish when much of what he takes issue with is the relatively peaceful rankings given to rogue states like Iran.
Used on whose study of human rights? I cannot imagine a US governmental entity using this study for anything more than virtual toilet paper.
China Law Blog - June 11, 2007 7:02 AM
Duncan --
I went relatively easy on the study in the post because I am giving it the benefit of the doubt because it is its first try, but I have to ask again what this study hopes to achieve and what it expects to achieve. All that work juts to create a really mediocre conversation piece?
Does it even make sense to combine internal with external and should not external be much more heavily weighted towards actual attacks on neighbors rather than expenditures and should not constant threats like those emanating from Iran and funding of terrorism (again, see Iran) count for something/more?
Also, I think it very strange that you describe Israel's wars with external enemies (the West Bank and Gaza have never been recognized as part of Israel) a civil war.
Phil - June 11, 2007 12:48 PM
I'll vote for it. Things like this and Bhutan's gross national happiness are useful in that they remind us to look at other ways of assessing countries. Any ranking is going to throw up oddities. Compared with harder numbers like Gini coefficients, peace/happiness are more intuitive, if less exact. I think there's room to introduce ideas like these into the way we think about countries.
nanheyangrouchuan - June 11, 2007 8:09 PM
I'm going to take another shot at this map and Duncan since he part of this farce.
Iraq is a less peaceful country than China, Saudi Arabia or North Korea (who has oddly been omitted)?
This just smacks of gross panda hugging and UN pandering. Yes, the US deserves a "yellow" at worst for Iraq in particular, but leave out NK? Saudi Arabia spawned 11 of the 13 9-11 hijackers and at best answered with a shoulder shrugging "I dunno" and china, well, no one can say enough about china's "peaceful rise".
Is News Corp or the Murdoch Family involved with this rating system?
chriswaugh_bj - June 11, 2007 8:28 PM
I've just noticed, NZ is included on the map, but is obscured by CLB's margins. But you lost me with Vikings and Concordia....
Just to add to the criticism of the study: Morocco is given a light blue, "high" rating of peacefulness, but Western Sahara is coloured white, "not included". Also, Ethiopia, Sudan and India are coloured red, but Chad, Eritrea, Somalia and Nepal are white. How did that happen?
And Taranto is arguing that America and Israel should be given higher, more peaceful rankings, while Iran and Syria should be knocked down the scale. His reasoning seems to have more to do with his politics, which would seem to be right wing, pro-America and pro-Israel, and perhaps somewhat hawkish, than with the actual facts of the case. I don't want to get into any political arguments, I'm just saying that although this study should be criticised, Taranto seems to have shot himself in the foot with the way he went about his criticism.
China Law Blog - June 12, 2007 12:08 AM
Phil --
I actually think I agree with you. As crappy as the methodology of this study is, I say more power to them for actually trying and for putting it out there.
China Law Blog - June 12, 2007 12:19 AM
chriswaugh_bj --
The Vikings part was a joke from the new HBO show, Flight of the Conchords. People think the two leads from NZ come from the land of the Vikings.
Gosh, so you are saying Somalia is not a peaceful place? I strongly disagree with you and I think it is wrong (in the moral sense of the word) for you to accuse Taranto of being "hawkish" (meaning lover of war) just because his views differ from yours. I have read his piece again and I do not see any sign of hawkishness.
I just have to believe a country like Iran, which treats the female half of its population like shit (sorry there is no other word for it) and its religious minorities (the Zoarastrians, Bahais, and Jews) worse than shit (sorry again, but decent words escape me at this time, threatens to annihilate an entire country, arms terrorists around the world, and spends a huge portion of its GDP on nuclear weaponry, is a pretty violent place and those of us who view it that way are not necessarily hawkish. Oh, and as for Syria, about all they do is gas at least 10,000 of their own people, crush the majority, murder the leader of a neighboring country, arm terrorists around the world and crush anything resembling free speech domestically. Again, if my thinking that constitutes violence, then call me hawkish. Oh, and none of this really relates to the US or to Israel either.
The study is bad and it is not for political reasons either. And I really have no idea where the US should go (as I have to admit that we do go to war and we do have more internal violence than many countries I am not sure that the ranking of the US is incorrect. It is so many of the other countries that make me question this study.
Rene - June 12, 2007 2:19 AM
Chris's comments reflect my own thinking although Dan's response is also reasonable. I'm not saying I disagree with Taranto that the ordering is bad. I guess I just detect an inherent pro-Israel bias in Taranto's comments that are not born out by the reality of the situation. I take issue with language such as "force." That is, I'm not sure Israel was forced into the war with Lebanon, but perhaps that's just my opinion.
Also, maintaining that other countries are free because we saved their ass in dubya-dubya-two ignores a lot of the (sometimes reasonable) discomfort that a lot of those countries feel at continued US military presence (e.g., South Korea).
To explain my comment on the human rights report, I was referring to China's annual response to the American report. China's is often filled with similarly unnuanced description, and therefore this peace report might be appealing.
China Law Blog - June 12, 2007 10:08 AM
Rene --
I would agreee Israel was not "forced" into the Lebanon war, but I think nearly all countries would have reacted similarly. The Palestianians are now in a full scale civil war at this momen as is Lebanon and as is Iraq, all of which is being fueld, at least in part by Syria and Iran. I don't see how countries in civil wars can escape the bottom nor how Syria and Iran also managed to do so. Certainly this peace index is not a good predictor of much.
hax0r - June 12, 2007 2:04 PM
USA is externally and internally "more peaceful" than India? This study is a farce!
jc - June 12, 2007 11:23 PM
Would it might make more sense (and easier) to a world chart of "pro-USA-ness" :-)
chriswaugh_bj - June 13, 2007 12:27 AM
CLB: Actually, the only quibble I have with your characterisation of Iran is that a good friend of mine who has been there told me that he has never seen women so respected than when he was in Iran. Oh, and I've read of Iranian Jews choosing to leave Israel to return to Iran (No, I don't understand that choice either, but they seem to think they'll live better in Iran than Israel. There's no accounting for taste.) The rest of what you say about Iran and Syria I agree with wholeheartedly. Really. Those are two regimes in desperate need of well-targeted smart bombs.
And I was trying to avoid politics. I don't think it's about politics, it's about badly done criticism of a study that really needs to be criticised. There are many points on which the study should be criticised, and Taranto should have checked his politics at the door and focussed on those real points. And the big point I would choose to criticise the study is the very suspicious choice of which countries to include and which to leave out. The most glaring examples being: Morocco but not Western Sahara; Ethiopia but not Eritrea or Somalia; and Sudan but not Chad. Those are three sets of very closely related conflicts, and three points on which the study could have been shown up for the rubbish it is, but Taranto chose to argue from his political persuasion.
Have I made myself clear? I hope so. I'm looking at this as textual analysis, not politics. Taranto should've criticised this study, but he should've chosen a better angle to attack it from.
And I'm sorry, but I have absolutely no idea what this HBO show is.
Duncan - June 13, 2007 2:00 AM
I would agree that it seems odd not to have Syria and Iran somewhere down the bottom.
In reference to my earlier comments on Israel's as a civil conflict, I guess I meant that given we're looking for a "two state" solution, it means we're not there yet, whatever the administrative split that exists at the moment.
On India, like Sri Lanka and the Philippines (both not terribly externally agressive nations), there's been at least 25 conflict-related deaths in each year covered by the survey in the country's civil clashes, especially in the northeast. The US can at least boast no "internal wars", as defined by the UCDP.
China Law Blog - June 13, 2007 5:43 AM
jc --
That actually would make for an interesting chart.
China Law Blog - June 13, 2007 5:48 AM
chriswaugh_bj --
It all of a sudden struck me as to what is really wrong with the study. Two big things. First, doing the "internal" and the "external" thing does not work. They are so different. And what is really being measured here with the internal anyway? Peace? Not really? Crime? Sort of.
The big problem with the external is that it looks strictly at numbers without context or history. Take South Korea as an example. It has North Korea on its border with whom it is still at war. Now even if one assumes South Korea's war with North Korea is 50% SK's fault, what about the other 50%? And would not one except NK to need to arm itself more than, let's say Canada, which has had peaceful relations with its neighbor for more than 100 years?
China Law Blog - June 13, 2007 5:48 AM
Duncan --
I've given up on this study, mostly for the reasons set forth in my response to chriswaugh_bj above.
chriswaugh_bj - June 13, 2007 7:06 PM
@CLB: Exactly.
And I agree, it's time to give up on this study. It was a useful conversation piece, but it's already served its purpose.
China Law Blog - June 13, 2007 11:36 PM
chriswaugh_bj --
Yes.