China's Future: Shanghai Or Beijing?
Rich Karlgaard, publisher of Forbes Magazine is in China right now and blogging on it. In Karlgaard's most recent post, he asks whether Shanghai or Beijing are China's future in a post, appropriately entitled, "China's Future: Shanghai Or Beijing?"
Karlgaard poses the question as follows:
The big question: Is Beijing or Shanghai the true China? Optimists, myself included, have always assumed that Shanghai represents China�s future. Shanghai is rapidly rediscovering its pre-Mao capitalistic glory � think of Hong Kong, only on a vaster scale, and with floating billboards!
Beijing, on the other hand, is schizophrenic about modernity. Breathtaking sites such as the Olympic Stadium sit among hordes of rural refugees with missing teeth and Mao hats. On Monday I blogged about the China default mental mindset that assumes: "Anything not expressly permitted is NOT permitted." This is definitely the Beijing attitude. Not so much in Shanghai.
Lawyer's answer is that they both are, just as both Washington D.C. and Los Angeles are the future of the United States and London and London are the future of England.
Equally importantly, are there really more people missing their teeth in Beijing than in Shanghai?
Comments (35)
Read through and enter the discussion by using the form at the endPiPi - April 13, 2007 3:37 AM
Shanghai is the future, but history has the nasty habit of sneaking up behind you and biting the butt.
As for London being the future of England - I assume you agree that the UK has no future? (sorry, just had to get that nationalist jibe in)
Andrew - April 13, 2007 5:03 AM
I would hate to see this degenerate into some childish popularity contest about which city has the greatest potential to play a leading role in China's continuing economic development...but Shanghai is WAAY better than Beijing.
Kaiser Kuo - April 13, 2007 5:31 AM
RE the "default mental mindset" of the two cities: the first-blush conclusion most people draw is that Beijing is the more conservative of the two cities, but my sense has always been that Beijing is far more permissive culturally, and that this mindset has permeated many aspects of life. In the world's I can claim some familiarity with--the arts (to include music and film) and tech entrepreneurship--there's much more willingness to push the envelope and explore the gray areas not explicitly addressed by regulators.
Doroto - April 13, 2007 6:41 AM
It is only chitchat to ask such question.
Ben - April 13, 2007 7:22 AM
I think it is a silly question, and I agree with the lawyer's answer.
And no matter how glitzy or glamorous Shanghai becomes, I will always prefer Beijing: it has more character.
nanheyangrouchuan - April 13, 2007 9:15 AM
"Los Angeles is the future of the US."?
Dan, that is one of the biggest US-bashing things I have ever heard, we'd be better off going back to England. In fact, that's slander and I'm going to sue. And DC isn't much better, a city built on a swamp that is 30% populated by junkies and bums, 30% by bureaucrats and 30% by lobbyists.
As for BJ or SH, some old hands and sinologists I've known all call SH a "suan pan" ie all shanghainese care about is business and they prefer BJ for its more authentic flavor.
On the other hand, BJ is replacing all of hutong neighborhoods with upscale executive hutongs (?) or just cardboard cutouts you can see from the thruways to give the impression of "authenticity".
BJ's music and art scene may be seen as more dynamic but that is probably a psychological response to having the overlords and a mass grave in such close proximity.
SH on the other hand has a long reputation as a trend setter going back to the turn of the 20th century, it is where both the KMT and CCP got their start and was Sun Zhong Shan's base of operations.
Beijing has been the target of development because it is the capital and China revolves around the capital. A rumor I heard about the Olympics is that each province had to "donate" $1 billion USD each to assist with the construction costs. Not that any of those provinces will see any return on that investment. But in 50 years Beijing will see its wester suburbs partially consumed by the desert and Beijing's end will be apparent.
sepa - April 13, 2007 9:57 AM
Shanghainese are minority who speak a totally different language from the provinces. Over the time, I don't see Shanghainese would still refrain from declaring independence from the rest of China.
On behalf of Chuan ;)
Well, if you like Shanghai, you have to embrace stickier air almost year-round(not an issue for Seattlians). It's the most pro-West city in China for sure.
greg - April 13, 2007 12:30 PM
The short answer is both.
As a large country, China is blessed with diversity when it comes to cities. Chinese have always bickered about which city is better: Beijing or Shanghai since early last century (now foreigners have also joined the never-ending debate). I think It's just different facets of a culturally-rich and diverse country: a privilege and a luxury if you will. There is only one London in UK, one Tokyo in Japan, and one Seoul in Korea.
In the future, more cities in China will join the competition: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, ... It would be a sign of progress.
Kevin S. - April 13, 2007 5:17 PM
"Breathtaking sites such as the Olympic Stadium sit among hordes of rural refugees with missing teeth and Mao hats."
Is Mr. Karlgaard aware that these are probably construction workers, and were he to go to a major construction site in Shanghai he would quite likely see the same thing?
nanheyangrouchuan - April 13, 2007 9:06 PM
"Well, if you like Shanghai, you have to embrace stickier air almost year-round(not an issue for Seattlians). It's the most pro-West city in China for sure."
Or you can breathe sand in Beijing while making iron colored snowballs in the winter.
"I don't see Shanghainese would still refrain from declaring independence from the rest of China."
CLB could start a real fun thread on that, as I have a pretty good theory...
chriswaugh_bj - April 14, 2007 4:18 AM
Judging from what you've quoted, I can only say Mr Karlgaard doesn't know Beijing from a bar of soap.
The obvious answer is both Shanghai and Beijing and every other province, city, county and village are the future of China. It's a big, diverse place. Nobody would presume to describe London as the future of all Europe, would they?
But wait.... I have serious doubts about places like Shanghai, Tianjin, or London being the future of anything. Sea levels are rising. Shanghai and Tianjin are pretty close to sea level as it is, and yet they're both sinking. Sure, the entire Huabei Plain is sinking, but Beijing is a good 50 metres above sea level right now, so it has a bit more breathing room....
And "London and London are the future of England"? Sounds depressing.
Pipi, you should have paid more attention to the Sex Pistols. England's had no future for a long time now.
Ben - April 14, 2007 6:13 AM
To completely over-simplify things, I've always thought Beijing draws its flavor from within China, whereas most of what makes Shanghai likeable is its foreign influence. I guess it's really just a matter of personal preference. I prefer Beijing.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:31 AM
PiPi --
History can indeed be cruel. Or is that time? People have been writing off England for hundreds of years and you sure as hell won't get me making that mistake here.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:32 AM
Andrew --
I can always count on you for both maturity and purely unbiased accuracy.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:37 AM
Kaiser Kuo --
Your descriptions on the differences between the two cities are very intersting. I have always been of the view that Beijing is for media, government, academia, entertainment, and software, and Shanghai is for "real business." At the same time, I have always thought of Shanghai as the more progressive city, with less of a governmental yoke.
Until reading your comment, it just never occurred to me that based on the media, academic, entertainment and software of Beijing, it should be (and almost certainly is) the exact opposite.
So maybe there is a split here in that Shanghai is more open in the business sense,w whereas Beijing is more open in other areas?
I have to confess that I threw this post out as filler because I have been so damn busy, but now I actually think there are some real issues here worth exploring.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:38 AM
Doroto --
Yeah, so? Chitchat can itself be important. If there were no fluff, there could be no substance. No Yin, no Yang.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:39 AM
Ben --
I prescribe a 3 day Vegas vacation for you. Glitz can be good too.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:42 AM
nh --
One does not have to like LA or DC to view them as the future. I actually happen to like both cities, but that's another story.
Glad even on a "light" post like this you are able to ring in with a prediction of demise.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:42 AM
nh --
One does not have to like LA or DC to view them as the future. I actually happen to like both cities, but that's another story.
Glad even on a "light" post like this you are able to ring in with a prediction of demise.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:43 AM
sepa --
Wait a second, Beijing's summer weather is worse than Shanghai's not better.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:45 AM
greg --
I agree with you. In Korea, if you are not in Seoul, forget it. In Japan, if you are not in Tokyo, forget it. In the United States, if you are not in Seattle, well, there is always New York or Los Angeles, or Chicago, or .... China is like the US in that regard and I agree with your predictions.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:47 AM
Kevin S --
Thank you Kevin for being the first person to even make a stab at answering my question as to whether Beijing really has more who are toothless than Shanghai.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:48 AM
nh --
A theory on why Shanghai will not declare its independence?
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:51 AM
chriswaugh_bj --
Who cares about a bit o' water?
Purely coincidentally, I just about ten minutes ago referred to the Sex Pistols in response to your comment on another post on naming punk rock bands. I have in the last 10 minutes given more thought to punk rock than probably in the last 10 years. God save the Queen.
China Law Blog - April 14, 2007 7:53 AM
Ben --
Simple but true, at least to a certain extent.
nanheyangrouchuan - April 14, 2007 9:23 AM
As far as rising sea levels, SH will suffer but with sufficient foresight, sound engineering and quality construction, they can hold back modest sea level rises. And SH is not alone, there are frequent conferences between many major coastal cities on how to hold back the sea. London and NYC, the twin financial capitals of the world and HK, the financial capital of Asia, are all on the hit list.
You'd have to dome Beijing to hold back the desert.
As for Shanghai's potential independence, it wouldn't be by itself, it would take Jiangsu, Wujiang and possibly Anhui provinces with it. So you'd have all of the industrial development, modern infrastructure, a modestly developed business environment and a good amount of agriculture. But independence would have to wait for the big bosses to loose their grip.
Benjamin - April 14, 2007 8:27 PM
NH-
I don't really follow your logic of basing optimism for Shanghai's problems on it not being alone and holding scientific conferences, while at the same time being pessimistic in regards to Beijing's problem of desertification. First, not being alone and holding conferences are great, but they don't totally mitigate the problem. Second, Beijing (or China for that matter) is not alone in its desertification problem, and the problem of desertification is well covered as a topic for scientific conferences.
Desertification is still in the getting worse before it gets better stage, and the problem it poses is not to be underestimated. However, though it is difficult, desertification can be reversed given sufficient resources. Given the secondary (read political) effects that desertification poses if it is not tackled, it is likely the gov't will devote the necessary resources.
Benjamin - April 14, 2007 8:33 PM
NH
In regards to "You'd have to dome Beijing to hold back the desert."
A more feasible solution is to control over-grazing of livestock and other agricultural practices that strip away vegetation, causing the problem in the first place. More proactive measures to be taken include stratetic planting of vegetation (there are countless scientific studies that are trying to determing the best types of plants to use and precisely how/where to plant them) and building of earthworks to prevent erosion.
Once again, it would be a mistake to underestimate the challenge of desertification. There are solutions out there though that are not of sci-fi proportions.
David Li - April 15, 2007 8:27 AM
Beijing and Shanghai are the present of China; futures will be other cities.
1. There are some evidences showing the flow of migration workers have leveled. Coastal cities depend on labors as well as talents from inland.
2. Go West (or anywhere but costal cities) policies. Where are the hot spots today? Hongzhou, Suzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Dalian, Qingdao, and Xiamen and the list goes on. Suzhou passed Shanghai as the top destination of FDI last year. Intel picked Chengdu for packaging and Dalian for its chip fab.
3. Any city on the above list are more comfortable to live then either Shanghai or Beijing. Better weather, better traffic and more beautiful.
And one question, what does it mean by "future" of China? I assume it mean the city will be able to offer a glance into how the rest of country will develop. Neither Shanghai or Beijing will be a good model. Shenzhen, maybe.
Speaking of Shenzhen, it has been under rated. China's economy is export oriented and all major retailers Wal-Mart, Carrefour and others have their global procurement centers there. Domestically, it has some of the most successful Chinese companies: Huawei, ZTE and Tencent.
I was once told "If one wants to get money from government, put HQ in Beijing. If one wants to get investment from foreigners, put HQ in Shanghai. If one wants to run real business, put HQ in Shenzhen."
nanheyangrouchuan - April 15, 2007 1:46 PM
Benjanmen: "However, though it is difficult, desertification can be reversed given sufficient resources. Given the secondary (read political) effects that desertification poses if it is not tackled, it is likely the gov't will devote the necessary resources."
Those resources are dedicated to building the power of the PLA, the prestige of the CCP and keeping senior cadres clothed in the latest european fashions, swimming in XO and entertained with young girls. The same gov't pledges are just hot air regarding environmental clean-up as well.
"There are solutions out there though that are not of sci-fi proportions."
We are not talking about stopping the US dust bowl of the 30s, the desert approaching Beijing is the size of the Arabian desert and has already buried trees planted to slow its progress.
Kent Kedl - April 15, 2007 3:07 PM
Those of us who prefer Shanghai over Beijing find the arrogant, so-cosmopolitan-we're-provincial attitude among Shanghaiers more endearing than frustrating. But we are probably wrong.
We have a calculation in our company when doing investment deals in China called "The Inverse Beijing Ratio" which states "the farther you are from Beijing the easier it is to get something done."
But again, we could be wrong...
China Law Blog - April 18, 2007 12:22 AM
David Li --
Great quote on those three cities. Makes sense.
China Law Blog - April 18, 2007 12:34 AM
Kent --
I am always amazed at how much more work we get involving Shanghai than Beijing and it is not just because Steve is in Beijing. The ratio is probably around 10 to 1.
And yet, Beijing certainly does have its admirers.
Anonymous - April 23, 2007 4:44 AM
hey u guys rock
China Law Blog - April 25, 2007 8:04 PM
Anon --
Thank you.