China Is In The Middle On Political/Economic Risk
The Riskape blog, which describes itself as "A Blog for Managing Global Supply Chain Risk," did a post (h/t to the Asia Logistics Wrap) on the Aon company's [.pdf format] on global economic and political risk.
The map ranks countries as follows:
- Low risk
- Medium-low risk
- Medium risk
- Medium-high risk
- High risk
China comes in at Medium risk, along with India and Thailand (this was pre- coup).
Japan comes in at Low risk.
Indonesia, Cambodia, and Vietnam are Medium-high risk.
North Korea, Burma/Myanmar, and Nepal are High risk.
Comments (3)
Read through and enter the discussion by using the form at the endHubert Shea - October 3, 2006 11:56 AM
China remains to be medium in terms of political risk because of its corrupt and inefficient political system. Besides, the risk of social unrest is increasing as a result of rural rebellion and widening income inequality.
Last year Ian Bremmer from Eurasia Group (a political-risk consulting firm) published an article abnut risk assessment in different host countries)in Harvard Business Review (June issue, Pp.51-62). He posited that China is in the high stability range and it became more stable than other emerging countries such as Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
The recent relationship strain between central and local governments as a result of economic policy reforms is a good indication of political instability in China.
China Law Blog - October 4, 2006 7:59 AM
Mr. Shea --
Thanks for checking in. To what recent "relationship strain between central and local governments" are you referring? That strain has always been there.
Hubert Shea - October 5, 2006 3:52 AM
The recent Shanghai scandal is an implicit representation of political strain between central and local governments.
Leaders from the central government are used to juggle huge political challenges from local governments.