Barnett on China -- Here We Go Again

The other day, I did a post on a Thomas P.M. Barnett post and I had this to say about Barnett:

Thomas P.M. Barnett is one of the few people who truly understands world politics.  Among other things, he understands how countries develop.  He is not a China expert per se, but it seems every time he applies his overall knowledge of the world to China, he is right on.  His latest post on China, entitled, "The normalization of China proceeds apace," is classic Barnett in that it is short, to the point, and most importantly, dead on.  If I could write like he does, I would be writing books also.

Damned if he did not do it again. 

In a post, entitled, "A 'responsible' China is self-interested China," Barnett extols a middle ground in assessing China.

Barnett begins by noting his amazement "at how little people in America understand about how much China has changed in just two generations since the Cultural Revolution."  Barnett equates these changes to those in America from 1865 to 1905.

Barnett then states that though China does not fit the U.S. model of political development, we Americans also "suffered a lot of crappy and inept and corrupt government across those decades, just like China does today."

Barnett then pulls the following quote from a "brilliantly good" James McGregor (author of One Billion Customers), Wall Street Journal editorial:

The Chinese people want the rule of law and fairness.  But they also want a government that solves problems and focuses on progress.  The many vainglorious and venal local Communist Party cadres are roundly detested.  But Chinese who experienced the chaos of the Cultural Revolution also believe that America must be purposely seeking to destabilize China.  Surely the U.S. isn't so naive as to think that instant democracy would make China a better place?

Half a world away, our sensationalist broadcast media is equally adept at demonizing China for the American populace.  When CNN's Lou Dobbs discovered that ranting generates ratings, he quit asking CEOs thoughtful questions about China and now focuses on flogging it for stealing jobs and unfairly threatening U.S. economic preeminence.  Bill O'Reilly and his infotainment-obsessed brethren at Fox stir up a similar stew of angry anti-Chinese cornpone.  And neither network has any trouble finding like-minded and uninformed talking heads from the Congress eager to obscure their own leadership and policy failings by laying America's economic insecurities and difficulties at China's doorstep.  During a book tour that took me to many American broadcast outlets in the past year the producers invariably asked: "Are you our anti-China or our pro-China guest?"  They were baffled when I answered that I was the "let's-try-to-understand-China guest."  Our TV screens may be in color, but discussions of China are exclusively in black and white.

The rest of the world doesn't share our fear and loathing of China.  For the past 15 years, its diplomats have undertaken a very effective charm offensive to build a positive image abroad.  People-to-people contacts abound, with Chinese students filling universities around the globe.  Outbound Chinese tourists now outnumber those from Japan.  China's slogan for dealing with its neighbors is: mulin, anlin, fulin, which translates as: be friendly, make them feel secure and help make them rich.  It works.  A 2004 BBC poll of 23,000 people in 22 countries showed that 48% considered China a positive global influence--10 points higher than the U.S.  Moreover, the survey showed that 58% of the respondents ages 18-to-29 had a positive view of China.

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Behind the bluster, the Chinese leadership under President Hu Jintao is uncertain and searching for where to take the country as it becomes an integrated part of the global community for the first time.  China doesn't really know what it wants next.  It just knows it doesn't want to be what it used to be: a feudal country that foreigners could carve up like a ripe melon, eventually becoming a dysfunctional civilization that a messianic leader could bring to the edge of social and economic insanity.

Barnett views China as "doing just fine, considering the vast and entirely profound social and economic change it's handling right now -- without blowing up."   In other words, though China certainly is and should be subject to criticism, in doing so, we should not ignore where it was only just recently and how far it has come in such a short time. 

Comments (8)

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Doug - September 21, 2006 9:01 AM

hear hear! I have had the opportunity to see Barnett's lectures on C-SPAN and both times found him to be a surprisingly engaged, thoughtful, and entertaining speaker--and very astute. Barnett sees himself as a futurist, a predicter of trends, and only time will tell if he is correct. Meanwhile, he seems to be one of the few voices out there who has the voice of both the military and political establishment and who is not afraid to bring us to task for perpetually fighting the last war.

I was very interested in his recent lecture, where he highlighted China's growth and future prospects. Barnett, speaking to high-ranking military personnel, was at great pains to emphasize that a) the genie is already out of the box; you are not going to 'contain' China as you did Iraq; b) most people here have no clue (though he didn't use that language)about what that country is experiencing.

China Law Blog - September 21, 2006 11:20 AM

Doug --

Thanks for checking in. I have the following questions:

1. Why "surprisingly"?

2. What was meant by the word "contain"? Contain China from doing what? Expanding economically or from taking over other countries or both?

Doug - September 21, 2006 6:44 PM


Surprising insofar as Barnett is both extremely well-polished (e.g. armed with all the power-point gadgetry and talking points) and a deep thinker. He can also speak to many different audiences on many different levels (academic, military, etc...) That's a rare skill, in my book.

I don't remember clearly the talk, but I believe what he said was addressed to the hawks in Washington who see China as a threat on many levels, economically and militarily (esp. Taiwan).

China Law Blog - September 22, 2006 10:51 AM

Doug --

Thanks for checking back in to clarify.

Chris Carr - September 22, 2006 12:58 PM

I have enjoyed coming across and reading your blog. Keep up the good work and thanks for taking the time to make your posts! FYI, I lead a group of MBA students to China each year on a business study tour. You may find the blog I have set up for the course to be of interest. www.calpolymbatrip.com

J From the Granite Studio - September 22, 2006 4:10 PM

It's interesting how the pro- and anti- China rhetoric in the US today fits so well into a long-established pattern with Western views of China. Voltaire loved China for its secular 'rational' bureaucracy. Then in the 19th century, that China was replaced with the "Sick Man of Asia" and its cousin the "Yellow Peril." The British declare war on China even as they supply men and arms to help the Qing fight the Taiping Rebellion. The US announced the Open Door policy, as a friend to China, even with our troops a part of the Allied Forces in Beijing against the Boxers. During the early 20th century, thanks to Song Meiling and Henry Luce, we fell in love with China again only to have our hearts broken when it was 'stolen' from us (Who lost China, anyway?) by Communists in Beijing, Moscow, and Foggy Bottom. We hate Mao, but we hate Russia more, and so Nixon goes to China. China gets McDonald's, and there's Democracy in the square, and everybody's happy...and then the tanks. On CNN. But it's a blip, we say. "But what of the military?" crow the naysayers and back and forth and back and forth. "What of the jobs," cry the papers.

Even the same rhetoric gets bashed around again, this time via satellite and the internet. The sooner we can see that much of our "China Watching" is really just reflections of our own expectations and perceptions of what China should be, the sooner we can get past anti-China, Pro-China and move on to Barnett's well-said line, "I'm the trying-to-understand-China guest."

China Law Blog - September 26, 2006 7:19 AM

Mr. Carr --

Thanks for checking in and thanks for the compliment. I have checked out your site and I do like it. In fact, I got the idea for a post on BRICS from your post and I will also be posting (I think) on Orville Schell as well.

China Law Blog - September 26, 2006 7:21 AM

Granite Studio --

Thanks for checking in. Love your new blog.

China is so big I guess we cannot help but ascribe so much to it, either good or bad.

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