China Law Blog

This is a really good post on crime, and you raise a lot of really interesting issues. But I have no answers for you, only more questions. One of your links is to Mr. Levitt's Freakonomics site. I wonder what he would say about international crime comparisons, since from what I know of his research (too little), he tends to focus on situations very particular to American cities and particular situations as for why people join gangs or become drug dealers. In an international context, the situations may twist in all kinds of new ways, with new incentives, different urbanization trends, population trends, age trends, and different rates of reporting crime rooted in different customs and childhood upbringing. Plus, if my bike gets stolen in America, I'd at least notify the police, though I wouldn't expect much in return. In China, I won't even bother, just because the scale of the underground bike market is so massive that there is essentially zero chance of getting it back. If a bike is stolen and then sold back to someone else the next day, the theft is that much harder to nail down. Also, If there truly is less crime in big Chinese cities than big American cities, (something I feel but cannot prove) can this be attributable to restrictions on weapons in China? In other words, is someone more likely to commit a crime if they have a gun than if they have a knife, or is it just a question of a crime will be committed regardless of what weapon is available. And is there any hope for better accountability in Chinese crime statistics?

History shows that in police-states crime rate is always lower than in free-states. State repression and real State monopoly of violence make more difficult for ordinary criminals to act.

Ryan -- I do not see hope for better accountability in Chinese crime statistics so long as the police are told what next year's crime statistics should/must be.

I like your question about guns versus knives. I recall seeing an interesting study done a few years ago comparing Seattle, Washington (where I am) with Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. These two cities were compared because their demographics are so similar, with the big difference between them being that Seattle has way more guns. I cannot even remember the conclusions, but you might want to hunt it down and check it out.

e.r. I agree with what you say, but on top of all that, I would also think there would be greater under-reporting of crime as well. Citizens might be less likely to report crimes to a police force they view as political oppressors and the police force is likely to be less likely to list all reported crimes in an effort to maintain the reputation of the state.

I agree.

As to the statistics in China I would like to add the following, it is not because they aren't publicised that they do not exist. On more then one occasion I have been surprised with Chinese officials really having detailed and more accurate statistics then the numbers at that time I was aware of. (I was working in the civil society sector, at that time, the official numbers of disabled people do differ from the unofficial ones, with the unofficial ones being the more accurate).
Secondly I do feel safer on a Chinese street at night then one in the US or even in some European cities (the paris suburbs for example).
Why,is an interesting question, coz statistically you would have a bigger chance of having more crime in bigger cities.
So far I explain this by :
1 the deterring police, nobody wants to deal with them for anything, so it deters from crime maybe?
2 The large numbers of uniforms in the streets make it difficult to discern between a cop, military personnel, local security guards,....
3 The lack of guns or other weapons (except knives)

Christophe --

You are right to note that just because the numbers are out there does not mean they do not exist. But are they accurate?

I think your explanations 2 and 3 make sense, but not number 1. Chinese police are generally viewed as inept, and that, I would think, favors engaging in crime.