Two Views of China. Do You Want Some Syrup With That?

Just finished my show on the BBC and found it both interesting and frustrating.  The theme of the show was whether China is too powerful.  I tried to break that question into two, by asking whether the question was meant to be a political one or an economic one. 

The rest of the show involved those who focused on China's economics (I was in that camp) saying no and those who focused on China's politics saying yes. 

One of the guests said liberalizing and democratizing in China were actually on the decline.  I disputed that by saying there had not been any big movements towards liberalization in the last few years, but that there had been little ones that added together were helping establish a base for the future.  I talked about how the courts were improving in their handling of business and local matters and I also talked about how China's government had generally wised up in terms of giving a looser rein to private business.  One of the callers who was originally from India, talked about how less educated countries like India and China are not ready for democracy.  I vehemently disagree with that, yet I also think it can be counterproductive for an outside power to push a country towards democracy too quickly. 

Others on the show talked extensively on the hundreds of missiles China has pointed at Taiwan and on how China recently made clear it would attack Taiwan militarily if there were increased signs of Taiwan seeking "independence."  I put independence in quotes because whether one agrees with a one China policy or not, Taiwan is independent right now. 

Also on the show with me (but in the other camp) was the editor of the The China Confidential Blog, which I am always touting as one of the best blogs on China.  China Confidential did a post the other day called, "China Spins A Tale Of Two Washingtons" that focuses on the different perspectives Washington State (where I live) and Washington D.C. (our capital) have on China.  China Confidential essentially divides the two Washingtons along the lines of the state focusing on business and the capital focusing on human rights and on China's military buildup.  I agree that the focuses are quite different, but I think it is more a matter of the state believing change in China will come from engagement and the capital believing change will come from confrontation.  I touched on these same issues in my post the other day, called, "Bad China. Bad. It's Simple. China Is All Bad. Bad. Bad. Bad. And Politics Demands We All Realize This." 

My sense is that the carrot approach with China is slowly working and the stick approach will not.  Call me naive, but I actually believe the Beijing government recognizes the need to liberalize but wants to go slow in doing so; it is following Deng Xiaoping's exhortation to cross the river by feeling for stones.  Economic liberalization is happening in China and with the confidence and freedom that brings, political liberalization will eventually follow, whether Beijing wants it or not. 

But maybe there needs to be a stick coming out of our capital as well.  Go ahead and accuse me of waffling here because I am, and I am because I truly do not think there is any one answer here and if there is, I certainly do not have it.