China Law Blog

An economist, a physicist and a chemist are stranded on an island with one unopened can of food.  The physicist suggests they roll the can down a hill where it will strike a rock which will pierce the can and release the food.   The chemist suggests they cool the can in the ocean then heat it in the sun so as to cause the can to burst.  The economist suggests they assume they have a can opener. 

My sense is that any prediction of China's economic future will be so dependent on the assumptions chosen that the assumptions themselves will determine the prediction.  Nonetheless, I was very impressed with a recent Asia Business Law post, entitled, "China Surveyed," that sets forth the following three possibilities for China's economic future:

• An economy that continues to boom as the political system gradually becomes more liberal and China becomes an increasingly positive force in the world;
• A fast-growing economy, a surge of vengeful nationalism and an attempt by China to displace American power in Asia regain Taiwan and challenge Japan; or
• A country in disarray, engulfed by social and political crises as its economy slumps.

The post goes on to provide an excellent analysis of how politics, demographics, productivity, and reform might influence China's economic future.  I find it both fascinating and a bit scary that one can easily muster facts to argue for any of these three scenarios. 

Asia Business Law's subtitle is "clarifying news of import for legal professionals in Asian business" and though it has been online for only a few weeks, it is already living up to its subtitle.  It is written by four University of California Hastings College of the Law students who show an enviable passion for and deeply rooted knowledge of Asia. The blogosphere needs a site that analyzes how the various Asian countries interact and influence each other and the world.  Asia Business Law Blog is that site and we have added it to our blogroll.