The Chinese Are Coming -- Part IX, This Time With Pension Funds

The Chinese government just authorized China's national pension fund to invest up to 2.5 billion dollars of its assets overseas, according to an article in today's Shanghai Daily.  The fund will be permitted to invest in overseas bank accounts, government and corporate bonds, stocks, funds, financial derivatives and other products, according to the rules posted on the National Council for Social Security Fund 's website. 

The fund is looking for foreign investment managers to assist.  Qualified managers must have been in the asset management business for at least six years and manage more than $5 million in assets. 

The article goes on to mention that "China is encouraging domestic institutions to invest overseas using the country's bulging forex reserves."  This is all obviously good news to foreign investment managers. I would expect nearly all of the pension fund business and much of the other foreign investment business to go to the financial firms that already have a relatively strong China presence, including Bank of America, Citibank/Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, UBS Warburg, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank

A Legend's Bumpy China Ride

Interesting China article in this weekend's Wall Street Journal.   Entitled, "A Legend's Bumpy Ride," the article details how the once legendary state owned Flying Pigeon bike manufacturing company failed to keep up with the changes in China's market.  After laying off nearly all of its 10,000 workers due to its inability to compete using a "Big Rice Bowl Mentality," Flying Pigeon eventually succumbed to a "partial management buy-out" and now offers its employees " low hourly wages, no benefits and few chances for advancement" just like its competitors. 

The article elucidates the economics for Chinese bike manufacturers that provide OEM production for companies like Schwinn, Huffy, and Wal-Mart:

But the future still looks tough. Factory owners in Tianjin say they earn a 3% profit margin on a mountain bike they sell wholesalers for around $35 -- a handsome model with 12 gears, padded seat and a front suspension system. That's about $1 in profit.

The same bicycle, which can retail for $70 at a U.S. chain store like Wal-Mart, is much more profitable for others in the sales hierarchy. The U.S. importer earns on average about $8 after paying shipping and insurance costs, according to Jay Townley, a U.S. bicycle industry consultant. The retailer does even better, pulling in at least $17. The upshot, says Mr. Townley, is that Chinese manufacturers "are getting screwed into the ground."

Using these numbers, the Chinese OEM bike producer shipping bikes to the United States makes only $1 for every $25 in profit that goes to the U.S. importer and retailer.  I previously blogged on this phenomenon in a post, entitled, "Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and Making Lots of Money in China." where I talked about how the Chinese OEM producers of Barbie dolls that sell for $20 at retail make only around 35 cents per doll.

American politicians either seem to be unaware of numbers like these or just choose to ignore them. 

Institutional Investors Seek Greater Corporate Transparency From China Companies

The Institutional Shareholder Services 2006 Global Investor Study was just published and it includes a special report on China, entitled, "China -- The Next Corporate Governance Hotspot."  According to the ISS, this study "reflects the collective voice of the institutional investor worldwide and is unprecedented in scale and scope, with over 300 institutions across 18 countries participating." The International Corporate Governance Blog (which tipped me off to this study) notes that the report indicates "huge corporate governance risks" in China, stemming in large part from the "close relationships among issuers and governmental agencies through state-owned enterprises and closely linked ownership structures." 

According to the ISS, the study's key findings are as follows:

9 out of every 10 Chinese investors sees corporate governance as extremely or very important today

Chinese investors believe an increased focus on returns and risk management will drive future corporate governance importance

73% of Chinese investors listed executive pay for performance among their most desired corporate governance improvements

And 93% of Chinese investors listed better disclosure, transparency and reporting among most desired improvements

In a previous post, entitled, "Corporate Governance in China Improving Slowly," I discussed similar findings from the Institute of International Finance and I concluded as follows:

China's corporate culture is not yet generally imbued with a recognition of the importance of corporate transparency and China's laws are not yet strong enough to force it.    

Apparently, the ISS agrees.

China's Culture Wars (Continued)

The other day, in a post entitled, "To Succeed in China Know the Now," I blogged on the relative importance of knowing Chinese culture for doing business in China.  My views on this are summarized here:

Knowledge of Chinese history and culture is an asset for doing business in China.  However, because circumstances in China change so quickly, staying abreast of China's current situation is far more important than knowing its past.  The most successful businesses in China usually emphasize knowing their own businesses inside and out first, understanding China today second, and China's history and culture third.

Asia Business Law Blog just did an excellent job probing the need for cultural knowledge in a two part series, entitled, "Do The Top Ten Cultural Tips For Doing Business In China Really Help?"  Their first post quotes from Doug Berman, a second year law student at Indiana University School of Law (who I actually had the pleasure of meeting when I was there lecturing on International Law a year and a half ago) who also questions the value of the books that purport to teach a nation's culture in a few hundred pages:

How many more books do we need by the new China hand on the block explaining to the wide-eyed corporate executives the top ten tricks to put in one's knapsack?

While I am hardly an insider, over the years I have seen (and you probably have as well) how people of similar extraction in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China may behave quite differently in certain respects. Even in China, such "fixed" cultural attributes find variation among young/old, educated/uneducated. It is odd that such books often tout the tremendous changes in China and then fall back on cultural essentialisms...

Moreover, and more fundamentally, knowing that "guanxi" is important only takes one so far. In many ways, learning Chinese culture (or any culture for that matter) is a lot like learning chess. The basic rules are easily memorized; responding to every situation that can arise is very, very difficult. No wonder we often fall back on our acquired understanding and background when the going gets rough. I think the problem is that very few foreigners, especially businesspeople, are willing to put in the many years to learn the language, get that Ph.D. in anthropology or East Asian studies, and, more importantly, immerse themselves in the culture.

I like Asia Business Law Blog's reply to Doug because though it recognizes the inherent value in learning another's language and culture, it also makes clear it is quite acceptable for that not to be the businessperson's primary goal:

I love your well-founded skepticism about providing businesspeople with drive-thru lessons about China. I was reading about the philosopher Zhuangzi yesterday and he said something to the effect that our lives are limited and what there is to learn is unlimited. Taking the finite to learn about the infinite is an inspiring conundrum, but I think it highlights nicely the fact that people make choices about what they want to achieve in life, and the businessperson wants to increase their profit margin. Others, perhaps not unlike yourself, want to truly learn and understand the culture, which requires learning the language and actually being in the culture.

Doug then replies, in part two of the series, by conceding that knowing about culture is not always a prerequisite to commercial success in China:

Putting aside my obvious passion for China and a bias against people who represent the MNC [multinational corporation] view (which, unfortunately, I made all too obvious in my earlier post to you), I do think there is an argument to make that knowing about culture may not always be a prerequisite to commercial success in China. For many reasons, I would like not to believe that, given that it downgrades my own stock. On the other hand, the post Dan cites does not say this, merely that MNCs understand how to make money and do localize to the extent they need to do so.

Doug goes on to say that he still considers knowing the language and culture as very useful:

My tentative answer is still that knowing the language and culture is very useful, at least on an individual level, at the very least because it is important to the Chinese themselves and gives respect. No other country have I been to where speaking the mother tongue takes you so far.

I agree with all of this.  The Chinese (like every other culture of which I am familiar, with the exception of the French) greatly appreciate foreigners who have an interest in Chinese culture and language.  No country appreciates the stereotypical "ugly American" and I always strongly advise anyone doing business in China to learn the basics of Chinese culture, etiquette and language before going there for even the first time.  Something as simple as just knowing how to say "I am pleased to meet you" in Chinese goes an incredibly long way towards showing your Chinese hosts that you care about their country and about them.

Ever since I read an article in the most recent Fast Company Magazine issue, entitled, "The Mintz Dynasty," I have been waiting for an opportunity to use a great question posed in it.  The article itself is on the huge successes achieved by the Dynamic Marketing Group, an advertising and communications agency formed by Dan Mintz in Beijing eleven years ago. The question, from Dan Mintz, in many ways sums up the whole issue on culture.  Mintz complains about Westerners coming to China and then he asks this question and gives his own answer:

Why would you think people in government here all think the same when there's nowhere else in the world where that's the case?" Mintz asks. "It's like thinking every Chinese guy knows kung fu.

Anyone who thinks they know China and its 1.3 billion plus inhabitants from reading a few books is as misguided as those who think every Chinese guy knows kung fu.  Anyone who thinks reading a few books on Chinese culture gives them the measure of the individual Chinese person with whom they are dealing is mistaken.

China's Courts Are Fair

Well not always, but more often than credited. 

In a recent post on the Citizen Yang Blog, entitled "Local Governments Lose 30-50% of Administrative Lawsuits," Vermont Law School Professor Tseming Yang notes that "local governments lose an astonishing 30-50% of law suits in China."  Most of these cases "involve land seizures, housing relocations, social security and state-owned-enterprise reform (in essence, folks getting laid off from their state company jobs)."  Professor Yang is "astonished" by this success rate, particularly when factoring in that many of these cases were outside Beijing and Shanghai:

The assertion that local governments oftentimes act contrary to the law and are sued as a result seems pretty unremarkable. However, I am astonished that the plaintiffs appear to win so often. From all the things I have heard, the plaintiffs most of the time come out on the losing end. My sense was that judges would not ordinarily rule against local government officials in such matters. Even if judges in large metropolitan areas like Beijing and Shanghai may be more professional, and so such a high loss rate seems likely in such regions, that is less the case in the rural areas and away from the coast.

I am not astonished by these numbers.  In a previous post, entitled, China Rises -- The TV Show/"Food is Heaven," I noted the success rate small players had in their lawsuits in Chinese courts against big polluting companies and ascribed it to fair courts:

This episode did a story on fish farms wiped out by pollution emanating from an up river leather factory.  The story focused on a Beijing lawyer trying to determine whether he had enough evidence to sue the leather factory for damages on behalf of the fish farmers. This Beijing lawyer has won about half of his 70 environmental cases against Chinese companies.  The lawyer talked about how the leather factory was violating the law but corrupt local authorities were ignoring the violations.  This lawyer's success rate bolsters my view and that the Chinese courts generally rule fairly in business disputes.  The Beijing central government controls China's courts and Beijing generally wants corrupt local party hacks reigned in.

Every time I tout the fairness of China's courts, however, I still feel called upon to make clear I am not a naif.  I fully realize that the Chinese courts virtually never rule against the government when central government policy is at issue.  And, when I am talking about fairness, I am completely ignoring criminal and political cases.  I also recognize that even though China's courts are controlled from Beijing, the chances of getting a fair trial are much greater in prosperous commercial cities like Shanghai, Tianjin, or Qingdao, than they are in a small city in Anhui Province.  I know too that a foreign company prevailing against a powerful local company in a Chinese court is always going to be less likely than if all parties are of the same strata. 

So China's courts are not always fair. 

But, they are fair way more often than credited by the western media and I am absolutely convinced (as are all of the Chinese lawyers with whom we work) that they are fair often enough to make it as ill-advised to do business in China without written contracts or Intellectual Property (IP) protections as to do business that way in the West. 

Even if China's courts are fair only 60% of the time, this is enough to cause the rational Chinese businessperson to make decisions based on legal ramifications. 

There is a commonality to judicial corruption worldwide.  Corrupting a judge is expensive.  The greater the amount at issue in the case, the more the judge will charge for a favorable decision.  The more publicly visible the case, the more the judge will charge.  The more the judge has to trample the law to reach the decision for which he or she is being paid, the bigger the bribe will need to be.  Local, trial court judges (who are most likely to know the lawyers and/or the parties) are more likely to be corrupt than appellate court judges.  Supreme Court Judges are the least likely to be corrupt. 

All of this means that even in the most corrupt legal systems, the better your contract, the more it will cost your opponent to prevail and the better your chances will be as you climb each step of the court system and the more it will cost to change that.  When I tell clients this, their reaction is usually, something like, "great, all this means is that my opponent will need to pay the judges half a million dollars to beat me, rather than only $10,000. That still doesn't help me." 

Oh yes it does. 

If the other side is going to need to spend $500,000 to beat you, they should be willing to settle with you for even more than that.  They should be willing to pay you more than a judge because settling with you has a greater certainty of finality and outcome and because it has a greater certainty of not getting arrested for bribery.  If you have no contract or a lousy contract, the other side may be unwilling to pay you anything, figuring a small judicial bonus is all it will take to assure legal victory or that you will choose not to sue at all. 

Chinese courts generally fairly resolve commercial disputes and they are continuing to improve.  China's courts already are sufficiently fair that Chinese businesses for the most part do consider the legal ramifications of their actions and act accordingly. 

Bottom Line:  There is no justification for those doing business in China to fail to take the same legal precautions there (such as written contracts and IP protection) as they do when doing business in the West.  Those who justify their failure to do things by the legal book in China because "the courts don't enforce the law there anyway" are both empirically wrong and foolish.

The Chinese Are Coming, Part VIII -- To My Town

I often blog (hence Part VIII) about how we should expect Chinese companies to increase their foreign investments as they become larger and more confident of their place in the world.  There have been many articles of late on how China is expanding its political and commercial presence into Africa and South America. 

Today's Seattle Times reports that the City of Dalian just opened a trade office right here in Seattle, right on the heels of Chinese President Hu Jintao's Seattle visit.  The purpose of the office is to promote trade and investment between the two countries. The article mentions Dalian is known for its outsourced software programming and "other industries" that "closely match Seattle's business mix." 

Mei Young, who will be heading Dalian's new Seattle trade office says she is organizing a trade mission in July to Dalian, Shenyang, Beijing and Qingdao to coincide with a Dalian trade fair that includes marine and air-transport industries.  "We want to do one-on-one discussion" between companies in the same industry, Young said. "If you're in the boating industry, we want to help you sit down with similar people over there."

The new office is in the Westin Building, which presently houses a number of consulates, Asian companies, trade offices, and data centers.  We have a number of clients in that building and I hate visiting them there because of the security.  It is the only building in Seattle of which I am aware where visitors are ID'ed and where the person you are visiting must come down to take you up to their office. 

I view Dalian's establishing a trade office in Seattle as a smart move on their part.  I have spent a considerable amount of time in Dalian and know the city fairly well.  Right now, many of the foreign companies with operations there are Japanese and, to a lesser extent Korean.  The Japanese like Dalian for call centers and telephone support centers there.  They use Japanese speaking Chinese at a fraction of the cost of Japanese workers.  Dalian time is only one hour different from Tokyo time and direct flights between the two cities take only three hours. 

There is, however, one very large sticking point between Dalian and the Japanese and that is that Dalian is in the historical Manchuria region where the Japanese committed many of their worst atrocities against the Chinese.  I have had many conversations with Chinese friends, including in Dalian, regarding the presence of Japanese businesspeople in China and -- to a person -- they all remain angry at Japan both for what the Japanese did to the Chinese and, perhaps even more so for their failure to own up to it. I mention all of this only because there is a clear and unequivocal preference in China, and particularly in Manchuria, for non-Japanese business. 

Dalian is a pleasant enough city with a good port, good infrastructure, and plenty of nice hotels.  Its government is less dynamic in many ways than that in some other parts of China, but it is not backward either.  We have worked with foreign companies (U.S. and Russian) involved in Dalian in the fishing, ship repair, and hotel business and they have all done well there. 

Welcome to Seattle. 

China RoHS

The Chief Asia Inspector Blog did a post the other day on China's Restriction of use of certain Hazardous Substances (RoHS) requirements.  Chief Asia Inspector is a new blog, written by the CEO of Asian Inspection, a "Quality Inspection and Factory Audit" company.  The post, entitled,"Applying RoHS in China," has this to say about China's RoHS requirements:

Chinese authorities, on the other hand, are enacting a very strict law making compliance both mandatory as well as complex, especially for foreign businesses. Companies importing products into China will need to take into account the following obstacles:

    � all products need a 3C (China Compulsory Certification) label before they can be sold in China,
    � testing for certification will only be allowed at state-owned and approved laboratories,
    � neither the law nor the related documentation is translated into other languages.

Like nearly every other law in China, we can be sure that Chinese enforcement will be stricter against foreign companies and companies selling products in China would be wise to bone up on China's RoHS requirements. 

Redberry vs. Blackberry In China -- Redberry 1, Blackberry 0

The Redberry service is now live in China with a Chinese and English language website up and running.  Its site highlights its four greatest achievements in 2005 and the only item it puts in bold is the following:

1st commercially available Uni PushMail solution in China. (Before RIMM's [sic]BlackBerry )

The actual acronym for the company that makes Blackberries is RIM, for Research in Motion.

Redberry is offering a six month free trial with the purchase of its phone and then will be charging 100 RMB (approximately $12.50) per month thereafter.  One can buy a full year's service for 1000 RMB (roughly $125).  I am not sure what Redberry charges for the phone, a Daxian CU 928, nor am I familiar with the quality of the service.  The site makes clear that the Redberry service is a push service, which means the e-mails go to the phone automatically, without having to pull them down off the internet. 

The strangest thing about Redberry's English language site is that the only article in its news section is a Business Week article (will anyone bet me that they secured permission from Business Week to post the entire article?) talking about Blackberry's IP rights should it pursue a trademark claim against Redberry. 

Redberry is now up and running and marketing its inexpensive product while Blackberry is still talking about its China plans.  At this point, anyway, we have to score it Redberry 1 and Blackberry 0.  But, it is still very early. 

410 Million Chinese Have Mobile Phones -- Good Consumers All? Part II

I blogged a few months ago on how China would soon have 400 million cell phone users.  That number is now up to 410 million

I love this sort of hard number because to me it is a very accurate way to measure China's growth and increasing wealth, perhaps even more so than a more standard measure like per capita income, which can be easily manipulated and whose impact is heavily dependent on living costs.

The way I see, it, if someone can afford a mobile phone, they are a legitimate potential buyer of Western products and a legitimate potential customer for Western retailers. 

Warner Brothers Fights Chinese Counterfeiters On Their Own Turf

In a previous post, entitled, "Software Piracy In China Has Staying Power," I blogged on how software piracy is so rampant in China and why it will not be going away anytime soon.  That post referred to an article, entitled, "Why Piracy Isn't Going Away in China," whose thesis is that software piracy in China will exist in large numbers until the ratio of software prices in China to average income in China comes closer to the ratio of software prices to average income in the western world:

Piracy is exceptionally simple: it's cheaper to reproduce and sell software in which you didn't invest, market, or frankly do anything else except slap a disc into a replication machine. That's one part of the equation.

However, piracy as an issue is far more complex than, say, the Business Software Association (BSA) makes it out to be. Certainly companies that invest in and develop new software deserve a fair return on investment. But that must take into account local market conditions.

There is a false impression that China is now a rich country. Certain sectors of the society have done very well for themselves. They've made real money. But the average monthly salary in the nation's major cities -- the wealthiest areas -- remains around US$250 to $400 per month.

Compare that to average salaries in the U.S. If someone makes $2,000 to $2,500 per month, then a $250 operating system upgrade doesn't seem too terrible. But when that price is approximately the same in dollar terms in a lower-income country, as it is in China, then suddenly a potentially buggy, definitely pirated edition of the same software for about $5 to $10 sounds much more attractive.

If software companies want better results out of China, then pricing needs to be commensurate with local market conditions. Software developers and their policy representatives have attempted, futilely, to make piracy a moral issue. It isn't. It's an economic issue. Piracy doesn't flourish in developed countries where the cost of legitimate software doesn't outweigh its benefits. But it flourishes in developing countries, where the cost-benefit ratio is different. Authentic software will never be as an inexpensive as pirated goods. But when its value helps to close the gap between price and usability, more people will pay the appropriate price.

I noted my complete agreement with this analysis and referred to one of my earlier posts, entitled, "Faked in China, Protection is Possible," where I discussed how economics drives counterfeiting:

The article notes that "security experts don't buy into the belief that copying is somehow inherent in Chinese culture. The simple fact is that counterfeit goods are cheaper than the genuine ones, and in developing nations like China, wages are low."  I completely agree.  Like everywhere else, those in China who can afford the real thing, prefer to buy the real thing.  As Chinese wealth increases,  and as more and more Chinese companies seek to protect their own brands, counterfeiting will decrease.  This is what happened in both Japan and Korea, both of which were at one time, notorious for counterfeiting. 

The hugely popular One Man Bandwidth Blog (h/t to IP Dragon Blog), just noted in a post, entitled, "Outdueling the Pirates in China" that Warner Home Video lowered the price of The Aviator DVD to only $1.50 in China an apparent effort to compete directly with the China's legions of DVD counterfeiters.  One Man Bandwidth heartily approves:

Finally an intelligent answer to fighting piracy: Warner has decided to compete with the DVD pirates in order to try to stop bootleggers. I really do think they are on to something.

Warner Home Video has started to sell a DVD priced at $1.50 USD! This is still more expensive than the bootleg version ( bootlegs are .50-1.50 depending on quality) , but many of my friends have indicated they would support the effort because it is legal and the quality would be assured. That means no more 'PROPERTY OF'' or 'FOR ACADEMY VIEWING PURPOSES ONLY' scrolling across the screen in the middle of a great shot.

To get its product down to an acceptable price level Warner has put the cheaper DVD into a cardboard envelope and I hear that extras will be left out. That is fine with me because I rarely watch the 500 hours of leftover footage anyway.

Warner is definitely on to something here and it will be interesting to see how far they expand this new pricing.  I am convinced that if legitimate DVDs all start selling for $1.50 in China, the DVD counterfeiters there will pack up and move on to something else. I do have one question, though.  Is there anything to stop a Westerner from buying a whole slew of the legal DVDs for $1.50, bringing them back to their home country, paying any minimal customs duty, and then re-selling them for substantially more?  Seems to be quite a good arbitrage opportunity and I just wonder how Warner would prevent that.

Is Beijing Law Firm Violating Copyright Laws?

My blog assistant (everyone should have one) just e-mailed me to ask if I had seen the relatively new Blawg of China.  I had not, so I followed the link he gave me and was instantly shocked.  This blog's design appears to be a direct rip-off of my law firm's website, which our Russian design team Fokadan/3dots.ru had copyrighted.   

Compare my firm's website, here with the Blawg of China, here.  What do you think?  Seems awfully close to me.  Is this a counterfeit?  A fake?  Why would one law firm do this to another? 

Looks to me like there is a big problem here and I am going to be contacting our friends at Fokadan to advise them of this situation. 

Copyright violation or not, I would have expected better. 

Chinese Cheeseheads Accurately Reflect China's Consumer Spending

Just received the latest issue of the McKinsey Quarterly and, like always, it does not disappoint.  The folks at McKinsey usually include a highly informative and unique article on China and in this issue Richard C. Cheung and Andrew J. Grant write about "China's Booming Dairy Market" [free registration to view may be required].  Now I know that even for the most ardent China watcher this one does not sound good, but stay with me here because it is. There is definitely information in this article that applies to China's food products market as a whole and even to its entire consumer market. 

The article predicts "China's dairy industry will double in size, to nearly $20 billion, by the decade's end," and it foresees "changing consumer tastes, retail modernization, and the country's increasing affluence will transform competition in this nascent industry and likely usher in a wave of consolidation�a transformation that could be mirrored in other product categories across China."  It goes on to state that now is the time for foreign dairy companies to come to China, because China still very much needs their "capabilities in areas such as product development, branding, and channel management."

The article notes three important findings:

1. China's consumers are "adopting the purchasing habits of their Asian neighbors and seeking higher-value-added products such as milk beverages, cheese, and yogurt:"

Today these products account for one-quarter of China's dairy consumption, compared with nearly 60 percent of Japan's. This proportion will change as Chinese incomes rise; indeed, we expect that over the next five years revenues from sales of milk beverages, cheese and desserts, and yogurt in China will grow by 22, 38, and 31 percent a year, respectively. For dairy companies, this is welcome news�such products command margins two to three times higher than that of liquid milk.

2.   The second important finding is the growing importance of China's second tier cities in the consumer economy:

A second factor�one also seen, to varying degrees, throughout China's packaged-goods sector�is the growing importance of midsize cities as consumer incomes rise. In 2004, for example, China's 3 biggest cities accounted for 14 percent of all dairy revenues; in 2010, their share will fall to 11 percent. From now until the decade's end, 70 percent of the growth in net revenues will come from the next 100 cities, the second and third tiers.

3.  The third finding is the growth in the proportion of sales by China's modern grocery stores:

Our third finding is a shift in the channels through which dairy products will be sold, as well as in how they are sold. In 2000, modern grocery-retailing formats (such as supermarkets and hypermarkets) accounted for one-fifth of packaged-goods sales in urban China�a proportion that by 2004 had grown to about one-third. The December 2004 removal of regulatory barriers on foreign retailers all but guarantees that global giants such as Carrefour will continue to expand into China. For dairy producers, the shift in formats will mean big changes. By 2010, nearly two-thirds of China's dairy sales will come through modern formats, compared with 40 percent in 1998.

The article notes that the big grocery stores springing up rapidly in China are a "double-edged sword for China's dairy industry" because though they increase distribution efficiency, they also "negotiate more tenaciously than mom-and-pop stores do when it comes to entry fees or shelf space." Some of the modern-format retailers also are launching their own private-label dairy products.

The article posits that to succeed in the Chinese dairy business, Chinese dairy companies will need to increase their Research and Development (R&D) budgets to bring them more in line with their Western counterparts:

To succeed, domestic companies must build new capabilities in areas such as product development, branding, account management, and marketing. Milk beverages and yogurt, for example, are innovation-driven products requiring strong R&D formulation and consumer segmentation skills, and many domestic dairy companies have little of either. The top five Chinese dairy companies, for instance, spend less than 1 percent of their revenues on R&D, compared with 3 to 4 percent for their Western counterparts.

According to McKinsey, the Chinese dairy industry is still "wide open" to foreigners and "foreign dairy companies are capitalizing on the sector's openness."  For example, the world's largest dairy exporter, New Zealand's Fonterra recently purchased a 43 percent stake in San Lu, a large Chinese domestic dairy company.  Fonterra's 43 percent stake in Hebei based San Lu will cost about $107 million.

The Chinese consumer is stepping up the quality of its purchases.  Consumer spending in China's second tier cities is likely to continue to increase in proportion to China's largest cities and the sales growth of the big modern grocery stores in China will outstrip those of the smaller "mom and pop" stores.  All of these things bode well for foreign food product and consumer companies. 

Is China Going Green, Part VIII? -- Well The Wall Street Journal Says It Is So You'd Better Believe It

Today's Wall Street Journal, which I frequently cite as one of the few western newspapers that consistently covers China accurately, has an article today, entitled, "In China, More Facilities Go Green."  Written by China correspondent, Andrew Batson, the article focuses on how foreign firms operating in China are starting to look beyond China's own environmental regulations and using "independent, international standards to guide their local [China] operations."

The article cites a new Plantronics plant as an example of how foreign companies doing business in China can benefit by going green:

Plantronics Inc., a U.S. company that makes headsets, is one of those staying ahead of the regulatory curve. It says its new $23 million factory, near the eastern city of Suzhou, is the first manufacturing plant in China to be certified by a private, nonprofit American group. Meeting that voluntary code developed by the U.S. Green Building Council -- called Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design, or LEED -- requires cutting electricity consumption and reusing water, practices that are new priorities for Chinese government officials.

Moves by Plantronics to go beyond basic environmental requirements helped ensure that local authorities became very enthusiastic for this project, said Terry Walters, the company's senior vice president of operations. "They were in our corner the whole time, fighting for us to get through the approval process, and fast." 

We have found the same thing in our China work for foreign companies, particularly in the last few months.  Registering a company to do business in China is often easier if the company you are seeking to register does not pollute or goes to great lengths to minimize pollutants.   

The article goes on to talk about how foreign property developers are starting to build their buildings to meet not just "today's lax standards" in China "but tomorrow's tougher ones":

"Clearly, over time the regulations are going to change, and they are going to be forced into doing environmental things," said Patrick Bruce, head of planning and design firm Integer China Ltd., which advises on green buildings.

The article attributes the Chinese government's increased environmental awareness to a desire to address public discontent:

China's environmental authorities have turned more aggressive in recent months, spurred on by the string of well-publicized mishaps, including a November chemical spill in the Songhua River that left a city of millions without safe drinking water for several days. Meanwhile, government officials say they are shifting longer-term priorities away from emphasis on faster economic growth -- a move aimed at addressing public discontent at the unwelcome side effects of inequality, pollution and corruption.

Back in early February, in my first post of this series, entitled, "Is China Going Green?" I lauded a United States retailer that builds its outlets in China to comply with the toughest United States environmental standards:

We are aware of a large Fortune 500 retail company that is opening units in China that meet or exceed the toughest United States environmental laws I estimate this company's environmental sensitivity will cost them at least an additional $25,000 per unit, yet I am firmly convinced this company is doing the right thing.  This company's actions make sense because the odds are good that China's environmental laws and enforcement will get tougher over time, and building environmentally sound units now will almost certainly cost less than having to retrofit existing units a few years from now.  On top of this, people often get very emotional about the environment and I can see Chinese citizens getting very angry at a foreign company whose units in China are less environmentally sound than their units in the United States or elsewhere.  This is obviously even more likely to be the case if there were to be some sort of environmental disaster.

In my most recent post on this subject, "Is China Going Green? -- Part VII -- Doesn't Matter Because You Should No Matter What" I talked about how so many of our readers refuse to believe the Chinese government is getting serious about the environment:

I am constantly blogging on how China is serious about improving its environment, most recently in this post, "Is China Going Green? -- Part VI -- So Green It Is Going To Hurt" a couple days ago.  China is serious about the environment for one simple reason.  It wants to keep its citizenry satisfied because satisfied citizens do not to take to the streets. Clean air and clean water are the basics citizens expect from their government.

Yet nearly every time I blog on this, someone sends me an e-mail claiming the Chinese government does not care at all about the environment and its statements of environmental concern are purely political, with no enforcement behind them. 

That post focused on a recent violent rampage by Chinese villagers against a foreign factory the villagers believed were polluting their town and damaging their health and I ended it with the following admonition:

Bottom Line:  The Chinese are becoming more and more sensitive to their environment.  So whether or not you agree with my assertion that China's government is sincere about seeking to clean up China's environment, you should still do what you can to clean up your own operations. Doing so is just good business. 

I can now say the Wall Street Journal agrees. 

Survey Says, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) In China Is Best

A reader from Vermont just sent me the A.T. Kearney FDI Confidence Index in support of my recent post, entitled, "Good China. Good. It's Simple. China Is All Good. Good. Good. Good. And Business Demands We All Realize This."  Had I seen this "Confidence Index" before doing my post I would have considered adding another "good" to the title.

This survey (I am not sure why A.T. Kearney calls it an index) reveals that the CEOs, CFOs and "key decision makers" of the world's 1,000 largest firms have greater confidence in foreign direct investment (FDI) in China than any other country.  FDI in China ranked first in all four of the different sectors delineated in the survey:  manufacturing, telecommunications and utilities, financial and non-financial services, and wholesale and retail.   

Bottom Line:  China FDI is good business. 

To Succeed In China Know The Now

The Diligence China Blog, always a good source for how to do business in China, recently did a helpful post entitled "Look to the Future of China, Not Just Its Past:  Success in China Will Come From Its Future Not Its History."  I agree.

This post says "too much ink has been devoted to comparisons of traditional Chinese methods' vs. 'Western methods' of doing business:

The airport newsstand best-sellers and glossy news weeklies are packed with admonishments to 'preserve face' and 'build relationships' as though all Western business travelers were Ming-dynasty emissaries waiting for a high-ranking eunuch to take our message to the Inner Court. Local Chinese writers have jumped on the bandwagon, poking fun at the clueless westerners blundering towards failure in China because they don't understand the local culture.

The post goes on to point out that the multinational corporations in China are doing great by doing business there the same way they do business everywhere else: 

Western MNCs [Multinational Companies] are doing well here, because this is what they do. They are multinational. They adjust to new cultures and new environments. Their brand power in China has been growing fast and deep. They hire the best local talent, pay the highest salaries, and invest the most. They have no culture, no beliefs, and no predispositions. They are machines.

The post then states that China's business culture is changing so fast and is becoming so much dominated by the young that "no one understands it":

Traditional Chinese culture is changing so fast that NO ONE understands it. I teach marketing in Shanghai, and most of my students tend to be professionals between the ages of 25 and 35. These people are far more sophisticated about brands than I could ever hope to be. Yet each and every one of them considers themselves to be traditional Chinese (or at least Shanghaiese). They have very little in common with the previous generation of government employees and bureaucrats who were the models for recent how-to-get-rich-in- China punditry.

Diligence China admits knowing Chinese history can help gage where China is going, but asserts that a knowledge of emerging market trends is even more valuable. 

I agree with Diligence China, though I think it exaggerates a bit to make the point.  Knowing Chinese history and culture can be a definite plus, particularly in negotiating.  I blogged on this issue a few weeks ago in a post "imaginatively" entitled, "Negotiating in China."  I am also of the view that knowing Chinese history and culture can sometimes aid in predicting China's government policies, which in turn can greatly affect business.  I blogged on this issue just two days ago in my post, "The Real Deal on China," where I talked about how the Chinese government's current and historical relationship to its rural citizenry would prevent it from floating the Yuan.

But, Diligence China is absolutely right to stress the here and now in dealing with China, not its past.  If I were asked to predict who is more likely to succeed in doing business with China between the person who knows China's history and culture and the person who knows business as it is conducted there today -- or even just business in general -- I would pick the businessperson every time.  Knowledge of history and culture are a plus, but knowing business is the core. 

Indeed, one of the most common mistakes I have seen among western businesspeople is believing that things in China are as they were five or even three years ago.  The following are the four most frequent mistakes I see western businesspeople making in their China business by basing their decisions on what was rather than on what is:

1.  Going into China as a Joint Venture.  Half of my the calls to my firm about starting up business in China are start with "we want your help forming a joint venture in China."  My stock response to that is always, "why are you interested in going in as a joint venture?"  Nine times out of ten, their response is that some other company did it that way and that company seems to be doing well in China or that they thought going into China as a joint venture was the only way. 

China's laws and ways of doing business have changed markedly in the last few years and even just since January 1, 2006, when many new business laws were enacted.  Joint ventures are no longer required in most instances and they seldom make sense.  For more on the benefits of going in to China as a Wholly Foreign Owned Entity (WFOE) instead of as a Joint Venture (JV), check out these previous posts entitled,  "WFOE v. JV," "When in China, Don't Get Screwed -- The Movie," and "The Asianist Knows China."

2.   Wanting to form a Hong Kong Company to go into China.  Old ways die hard here as well and the reasons I am usually given by those who want to form a Hong Kong company is that "so and so did it."  There are limited instances where forming a Hong Kong company makes sense, but in most cases, doing so does nothing more than increase your legal fees. 

3.  Being enamored with the Chinese government.  In an article I wrote around ten years ago called "Four Essential Principles of Emerging Market Success,"  I listed as Principle One "A Good Partner is the sine qua non of Success. (I apologize for the Latin -- I was a lot younger when I wrote this article.):

So what should you look for in a local partner? Political connections? Yes and no:

    • Yes, because you probably will need someone with sufficient dexterity to maneuver around often-suffocating business laws and a bureaucracy that may try to cut in on your business at every turn.
    • No, if you think that is all you will need. Just as in the West, the politically connected are usually more a "government type" than a business person. Partnering with someone in an emerging country with whom you would never consider partnering back home is a mistake.

Political clout in emerging market countries is often more effective for avoiding legal responsibility for something like a debt than it is in generating business revenues. I have seen countless instances where a foreign company partners with someone because he "is tight with the governor," only to see the business crushed by the new governor as part of his house cleaning. The best partner is politically connected only to the extent necessary for business success.

My additional years of experience since writing this article have led me to conclude that there is usually a direct correlation between one's business contacts and one's lack of business acumen and this holds true in China as well.  In other words, the best businesspeople tend to studiously seek to rid themselves of governmental interference and those who welcome it do so as a substitute for business skills.  If you want to do business with a hard charging, dynamic, forward thinking business in China, your chances of finding that within the private sector are better than finding it within the government.  I touched on this briefly in "The Real Deal on China" post:

I have had many discussions with Chinese elites (lawyers and MBA graduates) on the issue of China's state owned companies and, virtually without exception, they would all concur with Maidment.  They view China's state owned entities as generally inefficient, poorly run, corrupt, and non-competitive. 

China's growth is coming from its private sector.  Its state owned companies are in a state of steady decline.  If you go to a local government and ask them about companies in a particular industry with whom you should be doing business, they will probably refer you to a state owned company.  There are two reasons for this.  The first is that the people doing the referring are in the government. The second is that there is a good chance the state owned entity to which you are being referred is in trouble you are being referred to that company because it needs business to pay its employees.

4.  The law in China is irrelevant.  When I hear this statement, it is usually followed by either, so "what's the point of having a good contract" or "why should I bother registering my intellectual property (IP)?" 

China does enforce well drafted contracts written in Chinese.  Will you win your contract case in a Chinese court every time you should win?  Of course not.  But will you be a lot better off if something goes wrong and you have a written contract instead of none at all?  Of course you will.  The belief that there is no benefit in having a written contract in China also fails to account for the fact that the best contracts with Chinese companies have an arbitration provision that makes sure your dispute will be resolved outside the Chinese court system.  China (and just about every other country, for that matter) is a signator to the Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards, which means China's courts generally enforce arbitration awards from the jurisdiction in which the parties contractually agreed to arbitrate.  For more on the enforcement of judgments and awards in China, check out my post, entitled, "Enforcing Foreign Judgments in China -- Let's Sue Twice."

China also is becoming better at enforcing intellectual property rights, particularly trademarks.  For more on this, see Steve's previous posts (Part I and Part II) on the recent court decision finding for Starbucks in a trademark case and yesterday's post on a very favorable trademark decision for five western luxury goods makers (Prada, Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Burberry).

Knowledge of Chinese history and culture is an asset for doing business in China.  However, because circumstances in China change so quickly, staying abreast of China's current situation is far more important than knowing its past.  The most successful businesses in China usually emphasize knowing their own businesses inside and out first, understanding China today second, and China's history and culture third.

Bottom Line:  Do for your business what makes sense in China today, not what might have made sense for some other company years ago. 

Seeing The Rest Of China

The Wall Street Journal has a good story on tourism in some of China's less developed and less visited regions.  There is also a very nicely done sidebar article, with a map, entitled, "Seeing the Rest of China" that describes "three trips -- two day, three day, and five day options -- from each of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou."  The sidebar is meant those going to these main cities in China with a few days to spare for a bit of pleasure travel.   

Blackberry vs. Redberry In China -- Tain't No Big Thing

Everyone is writing about the upcoming Blackberry versus Redberry telecom war in China.  What will Blackberry charge?  What will Redberry charge?  Will Redberry's service even compare to Blackberry's?  What about the trademark issues?  Is this a theft of trade secrets?  What will Canada do? Why didn't Redberry even register its trademark?  Will the Chinese courts consider the Blackberry name to be a well known trademark?

Now, in a bit of fresh air, David Wolf, of the Silicon Hutong Blog (also here at the China Stock Blog) tells us that neither Blackberry nor Redberry will be any big deal in China.  According to the Silicon Hutong (which, by the way, is an excellent blog on technology and media in China) post, entitled, "Of Berries Black, Berries Red, and the Little Pen That Could," the media's coverage of the Blackberry/Redberry issue is just "yet another example of how the media are getting China wrong."  Silicon Hutong goes on to predict that "the Berry Wars are going to be a tiny blip on the radar in China, and inevitably a big disappointment to RIM, Redberry, and the two carriers."

According to Silicon Hutong, because both Blackberry and Redberry rely on small versions of the standard "QWERTY" system of typewriter/computer keyboards, neither will be huge successes in China:

This [a small "QWERTY" keyboard] is an obvious problem in a region (the PRC, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, and Korea) where the alphabets exceed the size of the keyboard by a factor of about 100.

Decades of work have gone into developing software kludges that will make up for the inadequacies of the computer keyboard in East Asian countries. They are much better than they used to be, but they are still designed for keyboards that you can get both hands onto. Adapting those kludges to the far different environment of thumb-based computing is going to be difficult, and it's not clear whether the result is going to be entirely satisfactory. Typing in romanized Chinese, then selecting a character by scrolling up and down with an arrow key means a lot of keystrokes. Carpal Tunnel, anyone?

This issue will bedevil the two Berrys, and will thus create pressure against uptake. Don't believe me? Ask the folks at Palm and other companies who have sold QWERTY devices in China.

Then go and ask companies like Motorola, Nokia, and Dupod what kind of smartphone/PDA devices sell, and despite their sworn enmity I guarantee they will agree that the answer is "pen-based character input."

Silicon Hutong goes on to say that he things the big money to be on smartphones in China is with a pen based system:

That's right. A competitive war to develop the best Chinese language handwriting-recognition system has resulted in a host of devices whose functionality for Chinese far outstrips that of any thumb-keyboard. The approach meshes brilliantly with the Chinese culture and education system, which emphasize penmanship to the point of calligraphy, and where merely writing characters is considered a demonstration of one's culture.

Makes a miniature typewriter seem crude, doesn't it?

This approach has appealed to the pride Chinese feel in their culture, and has had the extra side benefit of making the devices smaller - a great virtue among phone buyers. (Chinese people laugh at my Treo because the thing is just so huge.)

If all of that sounds like a lot of rationalizing, take a look at the market. The PDA/smartphone market in China is estimated to be between 9 and 10 million devices, the vast majority of which are pen-based. QWERTY makes up a tiny, tiny portion of the market (mostly native or daily English speakers and foreign devils like me.) Motorola - a company that ONLY sells handwriting-based PDAs in China, holds half of the PDA/smartphone market. And they have no plans to sell their much-anticipated "Q" QWERTY phone in Greater China, choosing instead to introduce MING, a handwriting-based PDA phone developed exclusively for this region.

I think Silicon Hutong (he is, after all, a Palm Treo user) underestimates Blackberry's technology.  I use a Blackberry 7100 series phone, with SureType technology. With only 20 keys, I am able to type out just about anything relatively quickly.  My thought is that Research in Motion will incorporate the SureType technology into all of its Chinese phones, including those with more than 20 keys.  This will no doubt make it easier to type in Chinese.  The Chinese are already pretty amazing at SMSing on basic cell phones with predictive text so why would the more sophisticated Blackberry system not be enough? 

I am not even sure this whole Redberry thing is for real.  China Unicom does not mention it on its website and I have read that they did not trademark the name Redberry.  I am not aware of them actually having started this service under this name in China.  Is it possible China Unicom's Redberry announcement was just a publicity stunt?  A sort of vaporware for the smartphone set? 

China Courts Are Widening Their Intellectual Property (IP) Enforcement Nets

Five western luxury goods makers, Prada, Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Burberry just won a major trademark case in the Beijing High People's Court against the Beijing-based Silk Street Market, according to this China Daily article.  The ruling requires the Silk Street Market to pay each of the five companies 20,000 yuan (approximately US $2,500) to each company for trademark rights infringement.  The Silk Street market was found liable for trademark infringement because it allowed its retail tenants to sell fake products in violation of the intellectual property rights of these five luxury goods makers. 

This decision is a watershed event in the evolution of China's enforcement of intellectual property rights because it extends liability for trademark infringement beyond just the companies actually selling the counterfeit product to the companies that lease space to the offending retailers and then turn a blind high to their selling of counterfeits. The Silk Street Market's liability for trademark violations was not for actually selling counterfeit goods, but for failing to act on the infringing retailers after being informed of the five luxury goods makers informed the Silk Street Market of its retail tenant's infringing sales:

Each of the five brand owners found counterfeits of their products in the Silk Street Market and presented them as evidence of counterfeiting in a co-ordinated act in 2005 aimed at protecting their intellectual property rights (IPR).

They filed a collective complaint against the market in a call for the prohibition of counterfeits last May. But the fakes remained on sale at the market one month later, and the brand owners decided to bring both the market and the individual stores before the court.

A representative for the Silk Street market "expressed his disappointment over the final ruling, saying it was near impossible for operators to eradicate all counterfeiting in such a large market."  Huai Xiaofeng, vice-president of the Beijing High People's Court, said the court would go to great lengths to crack down on counterfeiters of foreign products.

Additionally, Louis Vuitton won a separate, but similar, lawsuit in a Beijing court against a Beijing market called Chaowai Men's Department Store.  The court ordered this market to pay Louis Vuitton 150,000 yuan (approximately $19,000) -- about the price of 30 genuine bags -- after finding that 22 stalls within this "indoor market" were selling handbags bearing the LV trademark without Louis Vuitton's prior authorization.

Bottom Line:  These two cases are important as they show China is widening the net of trademark infringement liability to step up its intellectual property rights enforcement.  The lessons to be learned from these cases are simple.  One, register your trademark in China.  Two, if you find someone violating your trademark, send them AND their landlord a letter (in Chinese, of course) demanding the violations immediately cease.  Three, if the violations continue, sue. 

Good China. Good. It's Simple. China Is All Good. Good. Good. Good. And Business Demands We All Realize This.

Well, not really. 

But since I did a post last week, entitled "Bad China.  Bad.  It's Simple.  China Is All Bad.  Bad. Bad. Bad.  And Politics Demands We All Realize This," symmetry demands I use the "all good" title on this one.  In my China is "all bad" post, I poked fun at those who attack China's business and economic fronts for political reasons.  Among other things, I questioned those who claim China is on the verge of economic collapse by noting that the Chinese are today quite optimistic about their country.  At the time I blogged on this issue, my best evidence of Chinese optimism was China's strong support for capitalism: 

Mr. Halloran talks about how wealth disparity is disruptive, but he ignores that the general view in China these days is one of optimism. It is no accident that a recent international survey found that the Chinese view capitalism more favorably than those of any other country.  They view it favorably because (at least so far) it has done so well for them.  People who believe they are on an ascendancy tend not to be disruptive.

Today, I have even better evidence.  The Grant Thornton accounting firm has released its 2006 International Business Owners survey (h/t to PanAsianBiz Blog) and the verdict on China is in:  China is a great place for doing business and its business owners are the most optimistic in the world. 

Highlights from the survey of 300 business in China and 7,000 businesses around the world included the following:

China's business owners are the most optimistic in the world about 2006 growth prospects.

China's business owners are worried about domestic competitiveness and the availability of capital to continue international expansion.  I have previously blogged on the difficulties private business owners face in finding capital in this post, entitled, "Hey Buddy, Can you Spare a Yuan? The Sorry State of SME and Consumer Lending in China" and in "Hey Buddy, Can you Spare a Yuan, Part II -- The Sorry State of Lending in China."

Nearly one in five medium-sized businesses in the worldwide survey now imports from Mainland China. The results of the first independent survey of business owners in Mainland China show that business owners are among the most confident in the world about the local economy.  Only three countries/territories out of thirty surveyed ' India, Ireland and South Africa ' were more optimistic. And when asked about prospects for growth in turnover in 2006, Mainland China topped the table. This made it the most optimistic country in the survey.

Medium-sized businesses in Mainland China are bullish about export prospects for the year ahead. The survey balance was one of the highest among the thirty countries/territories surveyed.

China's employment outlook is very healthy, with 49% of respondents forecasting an increase in their workforce.

China's surge in investment is likely to continue, with 58% of the Chinese businesses intending to invest more in buildings and 53% in plant and machinery.

According to Gabriel Azedo, a Grant Thorton Divisional Director for the Asia Pacific region, "Our survey demonstrates that the economic miracle Mainland China is experiencing is not only benefiting large enterprises but is trickling through to medium-sized companies. The survey, the first of its kind, shows that Mainland Chinese business owners are very positive about the economic prospects for the country but there is concern about constraints impacting the ability to grow their business. Who knows, this may be the first sign that Mainland China may not have the ability to meet the widely expected goal of it becoming the world's largest economy by 2050.' 

Not suprisingly however, the survey also revealed that not everything is good for business in China and the following concerns were prominent:

A high proportion of mid-size businesses in Mainland China are clearly worried about a wide range of factors and are among the most concerned in the world about constraints to expansion.

In a listing of thirty countries/territories, Mainland China comes 5th in the table citing 'cost of finance' as a constraint to business expansion, 2nd for 'shortage of working capital', 4th for 'shortage of long-term finance' and 9th for 'availability of skilled workforce'

39% of business owners were worried about 'cost of finance' as a constraint to business expansion, 39% about 'shortage of working capital', 32% about 'shortage of long-term finance' and 37% about the 'availability of skilled workforce'

In addition, 34% were worried about regulation and red tape and nearly half (44%) about shortages of orders and reduced demand (particularly due to increased domestic competition.)

China will need to resolve the lack of financing options for its small and medium business if it wants to see its private sector companies (I am assuming most of the surveyed companies were private companies because the survey focused on medium sized companies, which in China tend to be privately held) continue to expand.  Foreign venture capital funds are starting to step in to fill this hole and it will be interesting to see how far this goes toward solving the problem.

Bottom Line:  China is not without its problems, but its economic growth is real and it is that growth that fuels its optimism for the future.  

The Real Deal on China

Forbes Magazine just published an article by Forbes.com editor, Paul Maidment, entitled, "The Real Deal on China."  Forbes aptly summarizes the article with the comment, "Domestic politics is going to keep China from floating its currency. Time to move on to other issues."

Maidment asserts that internal politics preclude China from floating the Yuan right now: 

China's swelling $200 billion trade surplus with the U.S. and the role of the yuan's exchange rate, held artificially low to promote its exports, according to China's congressional critics, has become the focus of this debate.

But many in Congress are barking up the wrong tree in hectoring China to unpeg its currency against the U.S. dollar.

According to Maidment, viewing China as having a booming economy is an oversimplification. Though China's coastal cities are indeed booming, huge swaths of the country are not and Beijing must be and is very mindful of this:

While in the aggregate China looks like a big economy with big growth rates, big export numbers and a big trade surplus with the U.S., in reality it is a collection of disparate economic regions--and always has been.

Some of those regions, notably on the coasts, are growing at breakneck speed on the back of light manufacturing exports. But others, in the interior, are stagnating.

That is of great concern to the authorities in Beijing. There is growing social unrest in the countryside, especially in the poor western part of the country. But violent protests are on the rise in all rural areas.

And anyone who knows China's history realizes what a political hot button that is for Beijing. The overthrow of China's ruling dynasties has always started with uprisings in the countryside.

Maidment argues that China cannot float the Yuan right now because if it did, it would lower the cost of foreign goods in China and drive many rural, state owned, industries out of business.  Because these industries provide so much rural employment, Beijing simply cannot allow them to fail: 

Instead, its [China's] currency imperative is to protect the vast network of bankrupt but job-providing heavy industries that Mao Zedong scatted across China's countryside. They would be destroyed by import competition if the yuan was revalued.

That would exacerbate the social disruption and violent protests breaking out in record numbers in China's poorest regions. Beijing won't countenance that level of political unrest.

That is the political imperative that drives China's exchange-rate policy right now, regardless of how much atavistic chest thumping comes out of Washington, either while Hu is here or after he has left.

I completely agree with Maidment's analysis of China's current economic situation.  I have had many discussions with Chinese elites (lawyers and MBA graduates) on the issue of China's state owned companies and, virtually without exception, they would all concur with Maidment.  They view China's state owned entities as generally inefficient, poorly run, corrupt, and non-competitive.  Yet, at the same time, they are not ready to see them fail or to be rapidly privatized. They like the government policy of allowing them to die off slowly.  China is proud that it has not had Russian style dislocation from what the Chinese see as overly fast privatization there.  I hate to sound like a broken record here, but as I mentioned in two earlier posts (Two Views of China. Do You Want Some Syrup With That? and "China Rises -- The TV Show/"Getting Rich."), China's elites concur with Beijing's go slow reform policies:

The Chinese elite concur with the government's go slow reform policy of "crossing the river by feeling for stones."  In the show, an obviously wealthy banker talks about how this policy, first coined by Deng Xiaoping in referring to China's step by step liberalization, makes sense for China.  Those with whom I talk in China concur with this.  I think the urban elite of China concur with this not because they feel compelled to do so by the government, but because this policy has, at least so far, served them so well. 

Bottom Line:  China is not going to float its currency soon so the United States would be wise to move on to other issues.

Good Wrap-Up On President Bush's Meeting With President Hu

The Moderate Voice Blog has a very nice "moderate" wrap-up of today's events surrounding President Bush's meeting with President Hu.  The post is entitled, "Bush And China's President Meet But Hu Heckled" and it nicely pulls from a good smattering of media sources to conclude, moderately enough, that "relations [between China and the United States] may have improved - but there is still a lack of trust."   

The Chinese Name Game -- Google/Gu-Ge

One of the things I love about writing this blog is the opportunity it gives me to read China posts by bloggers with completely different perspectives on China than mine.  The other day I came across an excellent post on the Journal Of Intercultural Learning Blog, entitled "Cultural Implications of Google's New Chinese Name."   The focus of this blog is on understanding cultures.   

The post examines Google's new Chinese name, pronounced Gu-Ge, and in doing so, makes clear the importance of choosing a brand name for China that suits the Chinese culture.  The post's discussion of Coca-Cola's initial naming problems in China ought to -- standing alone -- give anyone pause in choosing a company name for China: 

The name Coca-Cola in China was first rendered as Ke-kou-ke-la. Unfortunately, the Coke company did not discover until after thousands of signs had been printed that the phrase means "bite the wax tadpole" or "female horse stuffed with wax," depending on the dialect. Coke then researched 40,000 Chinese characters and found a close phonetic equivalent, ko-kou-ko-le, which can be loosely translated as "happiness in the mouth" (from Funny Translation Errors)

The article goes on to compliment Google on its new Chinese name: 

No matter what people would say about the new name itself, Google seemed to have made the right move in terms of pursuing its long term goals in China. With its new Chinese name, Google wants to be as "culturally-friendly" as its major local competitors like Baidu, whose name was in fact also taken out of an ancient poem. And with this new name, Google manifested its strong hope for further development in the local market by the local ways. At least Google demonstrated its "intercultural" efforts, despite all other controversies. Its new Chinese name would certainly help it to take more roots among millions of the internet users and in the general public where not all are willing to learn English, and some perhaps even dislike it for reasons that it has "corrupted" the Chinese language.

Bottom Line:  Choosing a Chinese name is both extremely important and extremely difficult.  Western companies setting up operations in China should always consider how their name plays in the Chinese market.  Sometimes the western name should remain unchanged, sometimes it should be modified, and sometimes it should be tossed entirely.  One must also always remember that barely over half of China's population speak Mandarin so in choosing a name, one should also usually consider how it plays in Cantonese and perhaps other of China's many languages as well.   

OECD Report On FDI In China

The International Corporate Governance Blog just posted here on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) just released report on foreign investment in China.  The OECD report focuses on China's policies regarding cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and notes that though "some progress has been made" in easing the rules and regulations for cross-border mergers and acquisitions, still "more needs to be done." The report calls on China to "make its rules and regulations for cross-border mergers and acquisitions more open and transparent to attract more and better foreign investment."

The report specifically calls on China to do the following to improve M&A:

  • Streamline the approval process for cross-border M&A and make it more transparent;
  • Put in place a sound competition framework;
  • Further open its capital markets to foreign investors;
  • Encourage its firms to increase corporate transparency and provide more up to date and accurate financial information to make it easier to value a potential acquisition, especially regarding a firm�s liabilities;
  • Relax foreign ownership restrictions. In particular, revise existing catalogues that list the type of firms that can or cannot be acquired by foreign investors.

The report also recommends China pilot test these recommendations in the North-East of the country before rolling them out nationwide. The report states that this region, China�s historical industrial heartland, has a high concentration of state-owned firms in need of restructuring and technological upgrading, as well as high unemployment and low productivity and cross-border M&A could help rejuvenate the region�s economy. 

All of these recommendations make good sense.  However, because this report does not seem to have received any Chinese media coverage, we should not expect its recommendations to become policy any time soon. 

One of the biggest problems facing private Chinese businesses is finding money to grow.  These companies are essentially cut off from both bank loans and the Chinese stock exchanges and, as set forth in the OECD report, China's M&A laws make foreign acquisitions relatively difficult.  In the next few years we foresee a big influx of western venture capital (VC) firms providing secured and unsecured funding to dynamic Chinese private companies in return for equity stakes and other compensation. 

Steve is returning to China today and he will be meeting in Shanghai with a number of people connected with China's burgeoning VC industry.  I expect he will in the next few weeks be blogging on the increasingly important topic of venture capital in China.

China Law Blog Makes The News -- Can We Stop With This Already?

I just wish President Hu would visit Seattle every day. 

Because of his visit, a local paper did a story on my law firm's China practice today, I appeared on BBC World to discuss China, and, now, China Venture News just ran a post on my firm's China practice and its financial company work, entitled, "Seattle Law Firm Opens China's Door For Small Companies.

Everyone (including the media above) have been asking Steve and me about our views on the impact President Hu's visit will have on our China practice and on our clients.  Our response has been basically "little to none."  Now that President Hu is here in town, however, I feel we should revise our prediction, as his visit has had the following effects:

1.  It has given us great publicity. 

2.  It made the sushi restaurant across the street from our office, Red Fin, (to which I go just about every day) more crowded.  Today it seemed everyone there was a reporter staying at the hotel next door.

3.  It has made our office quite noisy as helicopters have been flying overhead nearly all day.

4.  And, if I ever get out of the office, I am guessing traffic will be an even bigger nightmare than usual. 

Well, maybe every day would be too often.

China Law Blog Makes The News

Just a short note to direct you to a story in one of our local newspapers about our favorite subject - us!  We were flattered to be interviewed by Kelly Kearsley of the News Tribune about China and our blog and we are pleased with the way it turned out.  Ms. Kearsley had read the blog and she knows her stuff. You can see how it turned out here in this article, entitled, "China Advice, From the Inside."

Two Views of China. Do You Want Some Syrup With That?

Just finished my show on the BBC and found it both interesting and frustrating.  The theme of the show was whether China is too powerful.  I tried to break that question into two, by asking whether the question was meant to be a political one or an economic one. 

The rest of the show involved those who focused on China's economics (I was in that camp) saying no and those who focused on China's politics saying yes. 

One of the guests said liberalizing and democratizing in China were actually on the decline.  I disputed that by saying there had not been any big movements towards liberalization in the last few years, but that there had been little ones that added together were helping establish a base for the future.  I talked about how the courts were improving in their handling of business and local matters and I also talked about how China's government had generally wised up in terms of giving a looser rein to private business.  One of the callers who was originally from India, talked about how less educated countries like India and China are not ready for democracy.  I vehemently disagree with that, yet I also think it can be counterproductive for an outside power to push a country towards democracy too quickly. 

Others on the show talked extensively on the hundreds of missiles China has pointed at Taiwan and on how China recently made clear it would attack Taiwan militarily if there were increased signs of Taiwan seeking "independence."  I put independence in quotes because whether one agrees with a one China policy or not, Taiwan is independent right now. 

Also on the show with me (but in the other camp) was the editor of the The China Confidential Blog, which I am always touting as one of the best blogs on China.  China Confidential did a post the other day called, "China Spins A Tale Of Two Washingtons" that focuses on the different perspectives Washington State (where I live) and Washington D.C. (our capital) have on China.  China Confidential essentially divides the two Washingtons along the lines of the state focusing on business and the capital focusing on human rights and on China's military buildup.  I agree that the focuses are quite different, but I think it is more a matter of the state believing change in China will come from engagement and the capital believing change will come from confrontation.  I touched on these same issues in my post the other day, called, "Bad China. Bad. It's Simple. China Is All Bad. Bad. Bad. Bad. And Politics Demands We All Realize This.

My sense is that the carrot approach with China is slowly working and the stick approach will not.  Call me naive, but I actually believe the Beijing government recognizes the need to liberalize but wants to go slow in doing so; it is following Deng Xiaoping's exhortation to cross the river by feeling for stones.  Economic liberalization is happening in China and with the confidence and freedom that brings, political liberalization will eventually follow, whether Beijing wants it or not. 

But maybe there needs to be a stick coming out of our capital as well.  Go ahead and accuse me of waffling here because I am, and I am because I truly do not think there is any one answer here and if there is, I certainly do not have it. 

China Law Blog's Dan Harris Will Be On BBC World Today Discussing China

China Law Blog's own Dan Harris will be appearing live today on the BBC World Show, "World, Have Your Say."  The show will air at 1800 London Time, 1:00 p.m. EST, and 10:00 a.m. PST. 

The topic is whether China has too much power.  In good lawyer fashion, I will say both yes and no.  Just kidding. 

Thanks to the wonders of modern technology, the best way to watch/listen is probably via the internet.  To do that, go here:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/worldhaveyoursay/#  and then on the right hand side click "Listen to the Show." 

China Rises -- The TV Show/"Food Is Heaven"

I just watched two more episodes of the highly publicized new four part TV series, "China Rises."  I watched the episodes entitled, "Food is Heaven," which focused on the centrality of both the quality of food in Chinese culture and on the difficulty so many in China still have in just getting enough to eat and I watched "Party Games," which focused on Beijing getting ready for the 2008 Olympics.  Both episodes were excellent.   

The following two things from the "Food is Heaven" episode stood out for me:

1.   I often wondered how China could have so many great restaurants despite the Cultural Revolution.  How could there be so many great chefs and incredible restaurants in China when the Cultural Revolution (and even the entire period under Mao) looked so askance at anything as bourgeois as great food?  This episode answered this question for me.  Food is so much a part of Chinese culture that I now realize it was silly of me to have thought any government could have annihilated something so important and ingrained.      

2.  This episode did a story on fish farms wiped out by pollution emanating from an up river leather factory.  The story focused on a Beijing lawyer trying to determine whether he had enough evidence to sue the leather factory for damages on behalf of the fish farmers. This Beijing lawyer has won about half of his 70 environmental cases against Chinese companies.  The lawyer talked about how the leather factory was violating the law but corrupt local authorities were ignoring the violations.  This lawyer's success rate bolsters my view and that the Chinese courts generally rule fairly in business disputes.  The Beijing central government controls China's courts and Beijing generally wants corrupt local party hacks reigned in. 

I found it interesting that the lawyer used the same methods and case analysis one would expect a United States lawyer to use.  The lawyer was testing the water, interviewing witnesses, and making a video showing the factory's discharge.  The lawyer talked again and again about the need for evidence.  One should conclude from this that the Chinese courts, like those in the west, focus on the evidence in deciding how to rule in business cases.

The "Party Games" episode makes clear, however, that the Chinese courts work far less well (or not at all) in dealing with an overzealous government.  Chinese law and courts are of virtually no use when challenging the Beijing government and its policies.  This episode focused on a lawyer and his wife and her friend who had sued over the razing of a Shanghai apartment for development.  The plaintiffs lost their case (which by all rights they should have won) and the lawyer was imprisoned for three years and his wife and her friend were constantly followed and harassed for having  brought it.

This series' portrayal of China's legal system jibes with my firm's own experiences with business issues in Chinese courts.  The Chinese courts (in China's business cities) are thorough and fair in dealing with business disputes, even if those disputes involve a "connected" local factory and even if those disputes involve a foreign party.  Chinese judges are well paid and closely monitored from Beijing in an effort to avoid corruption.  Beijing uses the courts to extend its own powers and Chinese judges generally look to Beijing in determining how to rule. Beijing wants business in China to function smoothly and business functions smoothly when courts rule fairly in business disputes. 

China's courts, are however, of little to no use in cases involving the legality of Beijing government actions or policies.  The courts support the center or, at best, will not cross it.  The Communist Party takes priority over China's constitution and the courts accede to this.  A few months ago, while in Qingdao, I asked a couple of top Qingdao lawyers what would happen if a Qingdao judge were to issue a ruling that went against a higher court decision out of Beijing. The lawyers told me they were unaware of that ever having happened and they could not even imagine it.  They found my question funny.

Bottom Line:  China's courts are surprisingly good at handling business disputes, but do not expect to use them against the government or its policies. 

China is Expensive -- NOT. Go Second Tier and Life Will Be Good , Part II

I previously blogged (here) on the benefits of foreign companies setting up or expanding operations in China's second tier cities, including Tianjin.  The Wall Street Journal recently ran a very favorable article on companies setting up shop in Tianjin, entitled "Tianjin Shines in China's North."

The article attributes Tianjin's favorable investment climate to its pro-business mayor, Dai Xianglong.  Since Mr. Dai became mayor in 2003, the city has used favorable investment policies to attract multinational companies.   Mr. Dai is a former banker and he has used his "banking connections to bring in hundreds of billions of yuan in loans to rejuvenate Tianjin. Just last month, the central government pledged to make development of the city's Binhai New Area, an investment zone that is already home to foreign companies like Motorola Inc. of the U.S., a priority over the next five years:"

Traditionally seen as the economic center of northern China, Tianjin has long had a well-established industrial base and one of the country's finest ports. In 1984, the central government included the city among 14 coastal open cities enjoying more market-oriented policies. But Tianjin still lagged behind Beijing and other cities to the south, especially as central leaders focused on developing Shenzhen and other special economic zones in southern China in the 1980s, and then Shanghai and its Pudong New Area in the 1990s.

All that is changing. Utilized foreign investment in Tianjin has surged by an annual average of 32% over the past five years, totaling $10.3 billion for the period. Investments in roads, factories and other fixed assets have doubled in the same period over the previous five years, to a total of 534 billion yuan ($66.7 billion). And last year, the economy grew 14.5%, compared with the national average of 9.9%.

The article goes on to talk about how how the city has built modern high rises, luxury-housing complexes, widened its roads and is building a subway system.  "New museums are under construction and parks have opened along the Hai River running through the center of the city."

Bottom Line:  If you are considering (as you should) setting up or expanding your China operations in one of China's so-called second tier cities, consider the dynamism of the city government in making your choice.

Software Piracy In China Has Staying Power

Computer Partner magazine, published out of the Netherlands, just did an excellent article (in English) detailing why software piracy is so rampant in China and why it will not be going away anytime soon.  Entitled, "Why Piracy Isn't Going Away in China," the article's thesis is that software piracy in China will exist in large numbers until the ratio of software prices in China to average income in China comes closer to the ratio of software prices to average income in the western world:

Piracy is exceptionally simple: it's cheaper to reproduce and sell software in which you didn't invest, market, or frankly do anything else except slap a disc into a replication machine. That's one part of the equation.

However, piracy as an issue is far more complex than, say, the Business Software Association (BSA) makes it out to be. Certainly companies that invest in and develop new software deserve a fair return on investment. But that must take into account local market conditions.

There is a false impression that China is now a rich country. Certain sectors of the society have done very well for themselves. They've made real money. But the average monthly salary in the nation's major cities -- the wealthiest areas -- remains around US$250 to $400 per month.

Compare that to average salaries in the U.S. If someone makes $2,000 to $2,500 per month, then a $250 operating system upgrade doesn't seem too terrible. But when that price is approximately the same in dollar terms in a lower-income country, as it is in China, then suddenly a potentially buggy, definitely pirated edition of the same software for about $5 to $10 sounds much more attractive.

If software companies want better results out of China, then pricing needs to be commensurate with local market conditions. Software developers and their policy representatives have attempted, futilely, to make piracy a moral issue. It isn't. It's an economic issue. Piracy doesn't flourish in developed countries where the cost of legitimate software doesn't outweigh its benefits. But it flourishes in developing countries, where the cost-benefit ratio is different. Authentic software will never be as an inexpensive as pirated goods. But when its value helps to close the gap between price and usability, more people will pay the appropriate price.

I completely agree.  In a previous post, "Faked in China, Protection is Possible," I discussed how economics drives counterfeiting, not culture:

The article notes that "security experts don't buy into the belief that copying is somehow inherent in Chinese culture. The simple fact is that counterfeit goods are cheaper than the genuine ones, and in developing nations like China, wages are low."  I completely agree.  Like everywhere else, those in China who can afford the real thing, prefer to buy the real thing.  As Chinese wealth increases,  and as more and more Chinese companies seek to protect their own brands, counterfeiting will decrease.  This is what happened in both Japan and Korea, both of which were at one time, notorious for counterfeiting. 

In addition to a country's per capita income and the cost of its software, a country's enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR) can also cause a reduction in counterfeiting.  As China's legal system continues to increase its enforcement of copyright laws, the risks for those producing illegal software will increase, leading to an increase in the prices they charge and a decrease in the demand. 

China's central government does seem to have recently turned the corner in terms of actually believing it is now in China's interests to increase IPR enforcement. Chinese companies are innovating in ever larger numbers and they want to see their IPR protected.  On top of this, China has made clear its aspirations of unseating India as a software outsourcing center and it has to know that to realize this goal it must step up its intellectual property (IP) enforcement.   

BOTTOM LINE:  Producing counterfeit software in China is easy and lucrative, but as the price of doing so continues to rise due to China's increasing IPR enforcement and as the wealth of the Chinese consumer continues to grow, we can expect to see sales of counterfeit software decrease.  To the extent foreign software producers are willing to charge less for their software in China than they charge in wealthier countries, they will speed up the rate of decline in counterfeit software sales. 

What China Really Thinks Of The United States

As expected, Chinese President Hu Jintao's United States visit is leading to a slew of articles on China.  This Time Magazine article, entitled "What China Really Thinks Of The U.S." makes for interesting reading on how China views the United States.  I found the following paragraph particularly interesting because what it seems to say is that the Chinese generally like the United States, despite viewing us as "unfriendly" towards China:

Public opinion polls conducted in recent years by the Horizon Group, an independent research outfit in Beijing, show that an almost schizophrenic attitude toward the U.S. extends far beyond the upper echelons of Chinese society. A survey in late 2005 showed that two-thirds of the respondents thought Sino-American relations had improved over the last year and that three-quarters of them liked American culture, but the U.S. was also rated as the world's most unfriendly country toward China. Some 56% said they didn't believe that Americans respect China.

Though there are no doubt people who would say that the Chinese think highly of us because we are unfriendly towards China and its government, I am convinced that if the United States were to become "friendlier" with China, an even greater number of Chinese would come to like us. 

"Friendliness," however, is a pretty vague term here and I am not sure exactly what it means in this context or even whether it is something for which the United States should be striving.  Nonetheless, I do find this interesting because it does seem to mean that 3/4 of China's people have a generally good feeling about the U.S. 

Bad China. Bad. It's Simple. China Is All Bad. Bad. Bad. Bad. And Politics Demands We All Realize This.

James Na is one of the smartest, most insightful columnists writing on Asia.  On top of this, he is a great guy and I consider him a friend.  I am in awe of his knowledge of military issues and of Korea. His writings on North Korea are absolutely top notch.  Our views on Seattle sushi restaurants almost always jibed (James has since left Seattle to return to the East Coast), but, when it comes to China, we always seem to disagree.  In a previous post, James astutely attributed our disagreements on China to our varying perspectives:

These guys [China Law Blog] are much more bullish on China than I am.  But then again, those who engage primarily in civil/business side of China tend to be so while those who deal in security or human rights issues tend to be more cautious (I count myself in the latter category).

Today, I disagree not with James' opinions on China, but with his facts. For today, James seems to have fallen prey to the China is "all bad and on the verge of imminent implosion school of thought," and he has done so not because the facts demand it, but because politics do.  Bad James.  Bad. 

In a recent post on his Korea Liberator Blog, entitled, "China Hype, Part 4," James cites favorably to an overly simplistic and downright unfair article on China written by Richard Halloran and entitled, "Conventional Wisdom Overlooks China's Troubles"  Near as I can tell, Halloran is a journalist with much more of a focus on the military than on China. James uses Halloran's article to push for the United States getting tougher on China. 

I am an attorney and a businessperson, not a political scientist or a military strategist, so I will confine my criticisms to the portrayal of China, while steering clear of the issues raised regarding United States foreign relations and military policy with respect to China. 

Halloran's article claims that when China's President Hu Jintao meets with President George Bush this Thursday, "he will have behind him a troubled and vulnerable nation that will surely put him in a weakened negotiating posture with the Americans."  Halloran posits that the "conventional wisdom on China today holds that it has generated an economic miracle that is propelling Beijing into the top ranks of the global arena. While there is much truth in that image, it overlooks widespread political unrest, vast unemployment and under-employment, and a disruptive disparity in the sharing of economic progress." 

It is unfair for Halloran to refer to China's economic miracle as an "image."  The buildings constantly going up in China's cities are -- standing alone -- enough to refute that accusation.  I do not dispute that there is "political unrest" in China nor that it is on the rise, but it is wrong to automatically conclude these protests mean Chinese populace is getting angrier with its government when they can just as likely be due to an increased belief in the efficacy of protests and a decreased fear of repercussions.  I also agree unemployment and underemployment in China is a huge problem, but I find it unfair for Halloran to ignore that the quality of jobs and the number of jobs in China is growing rapidly every year.  China does have a vast disparity of wealth and that is and will continue to be a problem, but since this is due more to the rapid increases in the wealth of Chinese urbanites than to a decrease in wealth among those in the countryside, this disparity is at least as much an argument for China's strength as for its weakness.

Mr. Halloran talks about how wealth disparity is disruptive, but he ignores that the general view in China these days is one of optimism. It is no accident that a recent international survey found that the Chinese view capitalism more favorably than those of any other country.  They view it favorably because (at least so far) it has done so well for them.  People who believe they are on an ascendancy tend not to be disruptive. 

Halloran also claims "China's reliance on exports to drive its economic engine has left it exposed to external pressures, notably from the United States. Foreign investment has faltered."  Halloran has his facts wrong here.  Foreign investment (FDI) in China for the first quarter of 2006 is actually up 6.4% from last year.   On top of this, China's GDP is rising faster this year than expected.  There has been no faltering. 

Halloran also cites to China's "looming water shortages that affect not only agriculture but the economy and national security, inadequate public health and safety programs, and pollution caused by dumping industrial waste, accidental spills, and harmful smoke billowing from factories everywhere."  China has terrible environmental problems and regions with water shortages and its citizens are unhappy about this, sometimes to the point of rioting.  (I blogged on a violent, environmentally induced rampage just this past week, here.)  However, it is unfair -- without more -- to cite China's environmental problems as proof of its weakness when dealing with the United States. 

Halloran triumphantly notes that the U.S. Pacific Command, which is responsible for deterring or countering potential threats from China, summed up its annual economic assessment of the Asia-Pacific region with perhaps an understatement: "China faces great uncertainty."  Should we stop the presses on this one? I mean, is there a developing country that does not face great uncertainty?  Do we need the U.S. Pacific Command to tell us this?  This is not analysis. 

Then, Halloran "reveals" that "China, however, could not find a market anywhere near the size of that in America. Privately and candidly, Chinese scholars acknowledge this."  Privately and candidly?  Is Halloran implying that "Chinese scholars" would be imprisoned in China if they were to state what everyone in China with a decent education must know and can read in the Chinese press every day: that the United States is the biggest market in the world? 

Halloran notes that "Robert Zoellick, U.S. deputy secretary of state, said in September that U.S. business executives who saw China as a land of opportunity in the 1990's now "worry about Chinese competition, rampant piracy, counterfeiting, and currency manipulation."  Halloran's clear implication here is that U.S. business executives no longer see China as a land of opportunity and that is simply not true.  I talk China with business executives nearly ever day and though they do indeed "worry about "Chinese competition, rampant piracy, and counterfeiting," they, virtually without exception, view China's opportunities as exceeding its risks.   

Sunday's Seattle Times has an interesting article, entitled, "Two Washingtons, Two Reactions to Hu," that talks about how differently the two Washingtons (the State and the capital city) view China and why this is so: 

Hu will seek to allay fears that China's growth presents an economic and political threat to the United States. Seattle, with two leading U.S. companies that view China as an unrivaled business opportunity, gives him the perfect setting for that message.

"This Washington [the state] is an alternative vision of what the US-China relationship can be," said David Bachman, a professor and China specialist at the [Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the] University of Washington. "Here we have a state establishment that is almost 100 percent behind encouraging engagement, and a perception that things are moving well on both sides."

In D.C., by contrast, "the whole view is the relationship is negative," Bachman said.

Bottom Line:  U.S. politicians and political and military writers are bound to view China differently than those of us who do business there, and I have no beef with that. But it is not fair for political writers to twist the facts on the ground in China so as to advance a particular political agenda.  We need a United States' policy towards China based on reality, not on manipulations. 

Talk On Web 2.0 In China -- Sam Flemming, in Shanghai, April 18, 2006

Sam Flemming  (h/t to the China Herald) will be giving a talk on "Blogs and BBS in China: listening and learning from your customers online" at the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai on Tuesday, April 18, 2006, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. at the Westin Shanghai 88 Henan Central Road (at the corner of East Yan An Road). 

Mr. Flemming is the founder of CIC data and he describes himself as a "'dot com" veteran and Word of Mouth evangelist.  Flemming is viewed as one of the most knowledgeable people on internet marketing in China.  CIC data is is a "China based Internet word of mouth and competitive intelligence research company."  AmCham states that Mr. Flemming's talk will involve the following

The blogs and message boards that make up Web 2.0 are conversations amongst consumers.  With the topic of conversation often being brands, products and services.  Web 2.0 represents a huge opportunity for companies to listen to and learn from their customers, potential customers, fans, detractors and influencers. The word-of-mouth marketing that blogs and BBS generate can make or break a newly launched product.  Unlike traditional market research, companies can listen to conversations about their products that are naturally occurring, unfiltered and authentic.

To find out more about this talk and to register for it, click here.  Mr. Flemming has his own blog, entitled, "China Word of Mouth Blog," that he describes as "A China-focused blog on BBS, blogs, society, net culture, Word of Mouth, and running a company."

China Rises -- The TV Show/"Getting Rich"

I watched one of the episodes of the highly publicized new four part TV series, "China Rises."  I watched the episode entitled, "Getting Rich" and I thought it was nicely done. 

The following things from the "Getting Rich" episode stood out for me:

1.  Many of the Chinese citizens interviewed spoke of the nearly limitless opportunities China now offers its people.  Only a few hours after watching this program, I was interviewed by a U.S. paper doing a story on China and I was asked what I thought was the American people's biggest misconception about China.  I said the idea that the Chinese people are in a constant state of repression. I said the reality is that the people with whom I deal (and admittedly these are for the most part the urban elite) are hugely proud of their country and wildly optimistic about its future.   

2.  Though one cannot fairly describe China as a country built on laws, it is becoming more so each day and the people are more and more turning to China's courts for legal redress.  These courts do not always rule fairly, but they apparently rule fairly enough for the people to generally believe in them.  I have definitely found this to be the case in the business world, where threatening to sue a company that has not paid its bills usually convinces them to pay. 

3.  Private enterprise is thriving and it is China's private companies (not its state owned entities) that drive what the show kept calling the "greatest transformation in history."

4.  The Chinese elite concur with the government's go slow reform policy of "crossing the river by feeling for stones."  In the show, an obviously wealthy banker talks about how this policy, first coined by Deng Xiaoping in referring to China's step by step liberalization, makes sense for China.  Those with whom I talk in China concur with this.  I think the urban elite of China concur with this not because they feel compelled to do so by the government, but because this policy has, at least so far, served them so well. 

The series is a co-production of the Discovery Times Channel, The New York Times,  the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, France 5, and S4C.  For more on this series, click here.  You can see the series trailers on the DaveinChinaBlog. 

Is China Going Green? -- Part VII -- Doesn't Matter Because You Should No Matter What

I am constantly blogging on how China is serious about improving its environment, most recently in this post, "Is China Going Green? -- Part VI -- So Green It Is Going To Hurt," a couple days ago.  China is serious about the environment for one simple reason.  It wants to keep its citizenry satisfied because satisfied citizens do not to take to the streets. Clean air and clean water are the basics citizens expect from their government. 

Yet nearly every time I blog on this, someone sends me an e-mail claiming the Chinese government does not care at all about the environment and its statements of environmental concern are purely political, with no enforcement behind them. 

Back in February, in "Is China Going Green? "I blogged about how I viewed a United States company as being smart for voluntarily spending an estimated $25,000 more per retail outlet in China to build outlets that meet or exceed the toughest U.S. environmental standards.  One of the reasons I thought this made sense was because I could see Chinese citizens getting "very angry" at a polluting foreign company:

We are aware of a large Fortune 500 retail company that is opening units in China that meet or exceed the toughest United States environmental laws.  I estimate this company's environmental sensitivity will cost them at least an additional $25,000 per unit, yet I am firmly convinced this company is doing the right thing.  This company's actions make sense because the odds are good that China's environmental laws and enforcement will get tougher over time, and building environmentally sound units now will almost certainly cost less than having to retrofit existing units a few years from now.  On top of this, people often get very emotional about the environment and I can see Chinese citizens getting very angry at a foreign company whose units in China are less environmentally sound than their units in the United States or elsewhere.  This is obviously even more likely to be the case if there were to be some sort of environmental disaster.

That day has arrived.  Recently, in China's Fujian province, approximately 200 villagers went on a rampage against some factories they believed were polluting their town and damaging their health.  The angry citizens smashed factory windows and equipment and there were even reports of some deaths.

I have tried to read every article on this event and none of them relay the same facts.  The actual number of villagers and factories involved varies by article, and only some of the articles report any deaths.  Nonetheless, it is clear there was a rampage that caused massive damage to the factories.  It is also pretty clear that at least one or more of the factories (and the one that seemed to have been hit the hardest) was foreign owned. 

Bottom Line:  The Chinese are becoming more and more sensitive to their environment.  So whether or not you agree with my assertion that China's government is sincere about seeking to clean up China's environment, you should still do what you can to clean up your own operations.  Doing so is just good business. 

Blackberry vs. RedBerry in China, Part II -- Mea Culpa

Yesterday in a post entitled, Blackberry vs. Redberry in China, I blogged about Blackberry's plans to go into China and China's own newly launched mobile e-mail service, Redberry.  Because of that post, I am today as red faced as (groan!) a red berry.   For in my post I predicted Redberry would have a new name by the time President Hu Jintao's airplane hits the tarmac in the United States later this month:

With China putting on a grand show this week (before President Hu Jintao's upcoming United States trip) regarding its increased efforts to protect intellectual property rights in China, this China Unicom announcement seems rather untimely. I put the chances at 50-50 that "Redberry" will have a new name by the time China's President's plane lands in the United States. 

Silly me.  Research in Motion (RIM), the maker of the Blackberry, is a CANADIAN company, not a U.S. company so it is extremely doubtful this will be on the Bush-Hu Agenda.  Thanks to Asia Pundit for astutely pointing this out. 

Internet Marketing In China

For the next ten days, the Marketing Sherpa website will be posting a "Special Report Part II: Internet Marketing in China -- 100 Million Chinese Online & Counting."  Marketing Sherpa summarizes its report as follows:

Even though just 10% of China's population is online, that's still more than 100 million active Chinese Web users. Plus, they tend to be trendy young adults ages 18-30.

In Part II of MarketingSherpa's China Report, discover how brands including McDonalds, Vidal Sassoon, Nike, Johnson & Johnson and Motorola are conducting online and integrated campaigns appealing to China's emerging online consumer class.

Includes practical know-how, Web and email data, creative samples, and useful hotlinks.

I learned of this report on Multilingual Search blog, which describes itself as "the reference point on search engines and internet statistics worldwide for marketers working globally."

China is Booming -- Go There for Growth, Part V, Because It Is Going to Last a Long Time

The Development Bank Research Blog (with a stated goal of "Understanding the Wealth of Nations") just did an interesting post, entitled, "Will China Quadruple Its Income By 2020? Nobel Prize Laureate Fogel Says Yes. I Am Not So Sure."  The post questions Nobel Prize laureate Robert W. Fogel's recently published paper entitled, "Why China Is Likely To Achieve Its Growth Objectives." Fogel is very optimistic regarding China's future, based on the following three assumptions:

(1) China will achieve at least 8% annual growth.  According to Fogel, this growth rate is not a miracle as it is really no different from what other Asian countries were able to achieve during periods when they were similarly situated to where China is today.  I concur. 


(2) China's problems with its money losing state owned entities (SOEs) and weak banking sector will be "mechanically reduced by 50%" as the Chinese economy doubles in size every decade. These problems will decline in importance and scope as the role of China's private sector in the economy increases.  I concur


(3) The Chinese government is increasingly sensitive to public opinion and to issues of inequality and corruption.  The Chinese populace generally supports the government, which makes political instability unlikely.  I concur.  As much as I hate state control, I have to admit that (so far at least) the Chinese government has been quite adept at reading and then reacting to public opinion. 

The Development Bank Research Blog takes issue with Fogel's assumptions, saying they are based on "hope" and "luck" and "if there is any economic and financial setback in the economy, however small it is, we are going to see all of Fogel�s assumptions self-destroying: SOEs, banking system will become a bigger problem, and social unrest will explode."   I disagree with this blog in that I do not see China's economy becoming uncoupled due to a "however small" economic setback. 

The blog also disputes Professor Fogel's assertion that China has vigorous public debates regarding its economic policies.  I again disagree with the blog, though I am not sure this issue is of great significance in predicting China's economic future.  China is not a free society, but when it comes to economic debate, it is pretty much "no holds barred." 

Finally, the blog states that China has "many problems ahead" and "we shouldn't�t pretend that they are not serious enough."  No sane person can believe China does not now have serious problems and will not in the future be facing serious problems.  However I side with Dr. Fogel in predicting China will be able to surmount enough of these problems to continue thriving.

Though it would be easy for me to side with this blog and say I too am not sure where China's economy is headed (I mean, who can be "sure" of any prediction like this?), I do concur with each of Dr. Fogel's assumptions and with his optimistic view of China's future. 

For more China optimism, check out this post, entitled, "China Through Rose Colored Glasses, Clearly"

Blackberry vs. RedBerry in China

Blackberry announced today that it will be launching its service in China by the middle of this year, through China Mobile.  Not to be upstaged, state owned China Unicom announced it will be launching its own mobile e-mail service in China, called, Redberry.  With China putting on a grand show this week (before President Hu Jintao's upcoming United States trip) regarding its increased efforts to protect intellectual property rights in China, this China Unicom announcement seems rather untimely. I put the chances at 50-50 that "Redberry" will have a new name by the time China's President's plane lands in the United States. 

I use my "crackberry" in China and it works beautifully.  I also pay about $60 a month for international service.  Press reports on "Redberry" have it costing around $1 (yes, one!) per month.  Can one get international service on Redberry and use it in the United States? 

Is China Going Green? -- Part VI -- So Green It Is Going To Hurt

Interesting article today in the China Economic Review, entitled
"Environmental Crackdown Could Raise Prices."   According to the article, the Chinese government's increasingly tough environmental standards will likely soon cause price increases: 

Stringent new environmental laws affecting the petrochemicals sector could result in price rises for clothes, household goods and other plastic products.  The [Chinese] State Environmental Protection Agency is expected to introduce a more stringent approval process for new industrial projects after it last week outlined the results of a two-month nationwide audit of 127 chemical producers in which it rejected or suspended approval for 44 projects across a range of heavy industries, and published a "name-and-shame" list of 20 projects that fell short of environmental standards.  Analysts said the crackdown has effectively frozen new petrochemical projects and would limit capacity in a sector already squeezed by record oil prices and widespread overinvestment. As a result, petrochemical firms may start charging more for the raw materials they sell to manufacturers of everything from toys to textiles, which would likely be passed on to consumers.

Bottom Line:  The Chinese government strongly favors environmentally sound companies.

Introduction To The New Company Law In China -- April 11, 2006, At The University of Washington School of Business

On April 11, 2006, at 3:30 p.m., China Law Blog's own Steve Dickinson will be lecturing on China's New Company Law tomorrow at the University of Washington Business School, in Seattle, Washington. For more information on this event, click here. 

Qingdao Court Rules in Favor of Starbucks in Landmark Chinese Trademark Case (Part II)

By:  Steve Dickinson

In part I of this post, I blogged about Starbucks' trademark history in China and about the recent Qingdao court decision finding a Qingdao coffee shop had violated various of Starbucks' Chinese trademarks.  In this post, I discuss my own on the ground observations of the Qingdao coffee shop and my own views regarding the Qingdao court's decision.  Lastly, I discuss what foreign companies doing business in China should take from the Qingdao decision regarding protecting their trademarks in China.

The Qingdao decision was based on the facts and the law and nothing indicates Starbucks was shown any favoritism as a large multinational.  The Qingdao defendant was clearly operating a business openly infringing on Starbucks' trademarks.  All of Starbucks trademarks were properly registered before the infringing business even incorporated.  Defendant's only plausible argument was that it was using the Chinese name as a company name, not as a trademark.  However, as a factual matter, this was simply not true. The Qingdao Starbucks was an open rip off of Starbucks, and the xingbake name was openly used to identify the business to customers.  Starbucks' success in the case was in complete accord with Chinese law and it shows no favoritism towards Starbucks at all.

It is important to note that the defendant in this case is also a foreign owned company.  The owner of the Qingdao defendant is an overseas Chinese who only recently returned to Qingdao to open the Starbucks caf'.  Accordingly, this case was a dispute between two foreign entities, not a dispute between a U.S. company and a local Chinese company. This actually is quite typical in China.  The Chinese themselves are not very sophisticated about what products to copy.  Much copying in China is organized and carried out by overseas Chinese based in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Canada, or the United States.  This increases the complexity of dealing with intellectual property (IP) infringement in China.

Starbuck's victory in this case is not complete. The defendant has appealed on the issue of using the xingbake name, using the name Star Sbuck and using its logo.  The defendant has conceded on the use of the Starbucks English language trademarks.  The appeal will go to the Shandong High Court and may take another year to resolve.  This is a major case and the court will no doubt take a very careful approach to the appeal.

Since I live in Qingdao, I went to visit the defendant's shop to evaluate this case on the ground.  Here is what I found.  The defendant's business is a traditional Chinese style coffee shop.  It does not resemble a typical Starbucks cafe.  The shop is located in a somewhat seedy hotel on a busy street in Qingdao.  The offerings are typical of a Chinese style coffee shop: the place is really a combination coffee shop, tea parlor, ice cream parlor, restaurant and  bar all rolled into one.  This lack of focus, "do it all" approach is typical in China. Personally, I had a beer and peanuts and avoided the coffee.  The other customers were drinking tea, eating fruit and ice cream or enjoying a beer. There was a great U.S. country and western singer on the stereo.  I stayed about an hour and had a good time.  I never once saw anyone order a coffee or drinking a coffee.

The defendant has removed all reference to the Starbucks English language trademarks.  However, the old references to Yukon Blend, Frappucino and the rest are clearly visible between the white outs on the menu.  The defendant has not changed anything, however, on the use of the xingbake name, the Star Sbuck name, or the design and shape of its logo. This will be resolved pending appeal.

Nobody familiar with Starbucks would ever confuse this this shop with a real Starbucks outlet.  In fact, there is a real Starbucks outlet located about ten blocks up the street from the defendant. The real Starbucks is an absolutely perfect clone of a Starbucks from the United States and it bears no resemblance whatsoever to defendant's establishment.  Of course, this is the reason Starbucks is concerned about coffee shops such as that of the defendant. The sloppy service, shabby d'cor and mixed message on the product served all are damaging to the Starbucks image and brand identity. This is particularly important in China, where Starbucks is working to create its image.

The message from this case to foreign companies involved with China is clear:
            
             '  Register your trademarks early.
            
             '  Register your Chinese name even if you do not plan to use it right away. This is especially important if your Chinese name is different from your company name, as was the case with Starbucks.

             ' Registering your trademarks in China is a necessary start towards protecting them, but it may not be enough. The Chinese government will not protect your trademark for you. You must enforce the trademark yourself. 

              ' If you properly register your trademarks in China you will probably succeed in an enforcement action.  However, you must be prepared to incur the legal costs of enforcement.  China is a huge and complex country.  If your product is successful, there is a good chance it will be copied. You will need to vigorously defend your rights from the very start in order to prevent this.

The good news we can take from the Starbucks case in Qingdao is that that China's legal system has developed to the point where intellectual property rights can be successfully defended through legal action. 

China Rises -- The TV Show

The Discovery Times Channel will be running a four part television series on China, starting tomorrow (h/t to the Migratory Fool Blog).  The series, entitled, "China Rises," is a co-production of the The Discovery Times Channel, The New York Times,  the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ZDF, France 5, and S4C (A Welch Channel).  The series will focus on China's politics, environment, society, and economy.  For more on what is looking to be a most interesting four hours of television, click here

Is China Going Green? -- Part V -- You Know It Is

If you are a regular China Law Blog reader, you know by now that I take seriously China's intentions to improve its environment.  And, if you are not a regular reader, well, the title of this post ought to tell you the same thing.  You can find my previous posts on China's environmental efforts here, here, here, here, and here.

As further proof, the Shanghai Daily ran an article today on how a number of China's provinces are now either seeking only environmentally friendly investments or at least greatly favoring those sorts of investments.  According to the article, "China's regions and provinces are seeking to lure investors with green, clean projects in a bid to move away from traditionally polluting industries."  The article goes on to mention how Zhenping County, in northwestern Shaanxi Province, is seeking to avoid polluting industries in favor of food or herb processing and eight of its eleven investment projects this year are in "environmentally friendly industries." The article also cites Guizhou Province's efforts to "build a recycling economy" and, according to a senior official with Guizhou's Development and Reform Commission, "any enterprises wanting to invest there are required to have a 'zero pollution discharge.' "

Bottom Line:  There is money to be made in China by being environmentally friendly and Western companies' greater experience with this gives them an advantage.

Corporate Governance in China Improving Slowly

International Corporate Governance Blog just ran a post entitled, "Corporate Governance in China Improving Slowly."  The post cites a just released report from the Institute of International Finance, concluding that China has made substantial strides in its corporate governance of its publicly traded companies since the Institute's last report in 2003. This institute is made up of representatives from nearly all the big financial players (including, Franklin-Templeton, ABN Ambro, Citicorp, UBS) and its report is comprehensive and very incisive. 

The report also states that it expects China's recently enacted New Company Law to accelerate the improvements in corporate governance in China.  However, the report also notes that China still has quite a ways to go before it even achieves the level of corporate governance the Institute expects from developing countries and it also pointedly notes that China's stock markets were among the ten worst performing equity markets in the world in 2005. 

Bottom Line:  China's corporate culture is not yet generally imbued with a recognition of the importance of corporate transparency and China's laws are not yet strong enough to force it.   

James McGregor in Portland, OR, on April 11, 2006; Lillian Tsai on April 25, 2006

The NW China Council, in conjunction with the World Affairs Council of Oregon and Portland State University, is putting on a speech by James McGregor on Monday, April 10, 2006, from 7:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. at The University Club of Portland, main dining room, 2nd floor, 1225 SW 6th Ave., Portland, OR.  Go here to register online.  McGregor, author of the widely acclaimed book on China Business, One Billion Customers, will, in this speech, "walk the audience into the middle of the Chinese business world while sharing his insider's perspective on the politics, the people and China's changing place in the world order." 

I expect this speech will be both interesting and informative and if I were not scheduled to be on an airplane flying into Seattle when it will be going on, I would be making the three hour drive to Portland to see it.  In particular, I would like to ask Mr. McGregor if he thinks the situations that befell the large companies he chronicles in his book are less likely to occur to smaller companies seeking to do business in China. 

Lillian Tsai, NW China Council's Board President, alerted me to this event.  Ms. Tsai is a driving force behind the NW China Council, which is one of the best organizations of its kind in the United States.  In addition to this, she owns and runs Tsaicomms, a leading Asian marketing and communications company. 

On April 25, 2006, from 7:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. at the Multnomah Athletic Club in Portland, Ms. Tsai will be part of an American Marketing Association workshop on "America's Ethnic Buying Power."  Click here for more information on that event. 

Xiangyang Market Closed Down (Again)

About a month ago, I blogged (here) that Shanghai's Xiangyang Market, famous for its sales of counterfeit goods, would be closing in June.  A few days later later there were reports (here) that the market had moved online and would be selling counterfeits over the internet.  In a comment on the Asia Pundit blog,  I predicted the Chinese government would close that site down in short order and that did in fact just occur.  This Associated Press article (h/t to Asia Pundit) reports that the Shanghai government shut the Xiangyang online site down at the end of March. 

Bottom Line: The Chinese government is making an effort to stem counterfeiting and it is sensitive to international opinion in this area.  Something as obvious as an online Xiangyang Market was an obvious no-go, particularly with President Hu Jintao set to visit the United States in April. 

Qingdao Court Rules in Favor of Starbucks in Landmark Chinese Trademark Case

By:  Steve Dickinson

Starbucks Corporation has been in a long running dispute with coffee shops in Shanghai and Qingdao over the use of the Starbucks trademark in China. Starbucks has prevailed in both actions. On November 16, 2005, the Qingdao court ruled in favor of Starbucks and it recently published that decision (in Chinese only) on its intellectual property law website (text of decision found here.)

On January 4, 2006, the Shanghai court also ruled in Starbucks' favor but because that decision is not yet up on that court's website, I will be focusing only on the Qingdao decision in this post.  I will summarize the Qingdao decision, discuss my on the scene observations of the offending Qingdao coffee shop and then give trademark advice to companies doing business in China.

The court decision sets forth Starbuck's history in China.  Starbucks began doing business in China in 1999.  By 2003, Starbucks had registered all its major trademarks in China, including its Chinese name, xingbake. 

The defendant coffee shop started business in Qingdao on October 23, 2003 under the name Qingdao xingbake kafei canting youxian gong si, which means Qingdao Xingbake Coffee Shop Company Limited.  It thus made use of the Starbucks registered name xingbake in its company name. In addition to this, the defendant Qingdao company used the English name Qingdao Star Sbuck Coffee on its napkins, menus and business cards.  Within its shop, the defendant used Starbucks trademarks such as frappucino and Yukon blend, and it sold coffee beans clearly labeled as Starbucks Coffee.  The beans were packaged in bags identical to those used by Starbucks in its legitimate shops. The Qingdao company's logo is a round circle with stars just like Starbucks, but it replaced the Starbucks mermaid with a coffee cup and eliminated the company name.

Starbucks filed suit against the Qingdao company claiming it was infringing on its xingbake and English language trademarks. The Qingdao defendant asserted the following defenses: 

            1. A trademark that has been registered but never used cannot be enforced.  Though Starbucks registered xingbake as its trademark in China, it never actually used the term. It uses only its English language trademarks. Accordingly, defendant is free to use the term xingbake as its business name.

            2. There is a difference between a business name and a trademark. A company is free to use its legal business name in conducting its business activities, so long as it does not infringe on someone else's trademark. The relevant Chinese authorities approved the Qingdao company using the xingbake business name and since Starbucks does not actually use that name, defendant has the right to use it in its normal business activities.

The Qingdao company's only defense for using the English language Starbucks trademarks was the clearly unsupportable argument that the plaintiff did not actually own the marks in question.

The Qingdao court quite properly summarily rejected the argument that Starbucks does not own its own English language marks and rejected both defenses regarding the xingbake name as well.  First, the court found that Starbucks had in fact used the Chinese term xingbake in identifying its business in China. Second, and more importantly, the court held that the Qingdao defendant was not using xingbake as a business name; it was using xingbake as a trademark to identify its business as a coffee shop. The xingbake name was prominently displayed throughout the shop and on the sign identifying the shop from the street. This confused customers as to the identity of the ownership of the coffee shop.

The court was clearly influenced by defendant's using the English language Starbucks trademarks to identify its products.  The defendant also copied the Starbucks color scheme and decorations in its interior and exterior design. The defendant even went so far as to copy the green color Starbucks uses in its signage and logo. All of this convinced the court this defendant had not simply innocently taken on the name xingbake, but rather, had deliberately copied  Starbucks' entire trademark system, along with Starbucks' look and feel.  The defendant's English name of Star Sbuck was used to copy the Starbucks name.

The court therefore held in favor of Starbucks, and  issued the following order:

1. Defendant must remove the term xingbake from its legal name;

2. Defendant  must cease using any Starbucks trademarks, including the Chinese term xingbake;

3. Defendant must cease using the green circle logo as it is confusingly similar to Starbucks' logo; 

4. The defendant is ordered to pay economic damages to Starbucks in the amount of 500,000 RMB ($62,000).

On Monday, in Part II, I will analyze the court's decision and its impact. 

China's New Securities Law Being Put To Legal Test

Big four accounting firm Deloitte is being sued in a Shanghai court and being called before an administrative board in Beijing for having issued an unqualified audit opinion on a client with "worrisome finances."  The China Daily (h/t to China Business Services Blog) explained Deloitte's legal situation as follows:

A source close to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revealed that it would likely hold an administrative hearing on April 7 to investigate the firm's role in a 2005 scandal involving Chinese refrigerator maker Guangdong Kelon Electrical Holdings Co, a former Deloitte client.

At the same time, a lawsuit was brought to Huangpu District Court in Shanghai on Wednesday, claiming Kelon investors had suffered losses because Deloitte issued unqualified financial reports while auditing Kelon's finances in 2004.

The accusations are based on Deloitte's alleged failure to issue objective reports about publicly traded Kelon, which is one of China's 100 largest companies.  The lawsuit against Deloitte is China's first investor led lawsuit against an accounting firm and it is also the first case involving public investors suing financial service providers under China's New Securities Law, which went into effect on January 1, 2006.

Last year, former Kelon executives were accused of inflating sales and embezzling approximately $73 million.  Kelon reported a $5.5 million net loss in 2004, after posting nearly $25 million in profits in 2003.  Kelon managers have allegedly inflated profits since 2002 and violated securities laws.  Deloitte was Kelon's auditor from 2002 through 2004, and though it qualified its audit opinion in both 2002 and 2003, it issued an unqualified opinion in 2004.  Deloitte dropped Kelon as a client in 2004.

The lawsuit blames Deloitte for not disclosing the internal fraud in its audit.  The New Securities Law and the Certified Public Accountant Law both require securities service institutions investigate the truth of the materials provided to them from publicly traded firms they audit.  The New Securities Law seems to put the onus on the auditor to prevent misleading statements or material omissions in their opinion letters.

It is always interesting to see how a court handles a new law for the first time.  In business cases of first impression, the Chinese courts often look to foreign law, particularly United States law, in interpreting their own business laws and the Shanghai court will likely do so here. 

I previously blogged here about how impressed I was with a United States Fortune 500 company that strictly adheres to United States environmental laws in building its retail sites in China:

This company's actions make sense because the odds are good that China's environmental laws and enforcement will get tougher over time, and building environmentally sound units now will almost certainly cost less than having to retrofit existing units a few years from now.  On top of this, people often get very emotional about the environment and I can see Chinese citizens getting very angry at a foreign company whose units in China are less environmentally sound than their units in the United States or elsewhere.

The same holds true with respect to various business standards in China.  Western firms would be wise to adhere to the stricter United States or European standards whenever feasible.  The Chinese law and courts will likely eventually be getting every bit as strict as the United States, Canada, and Europe, and the standards China applies to foreign companies will always be at the high end in any event. 

For additional reading on the Americanization of law around the world, check out this Yomiuri Shimbum article called the "Americanization of International Law.

Study Reveals: China Both Good and Bad For Suppliers, But No Guarantees Either Way

A friend of mine from Michigan who owns an auto supply business sent me an article today from the AutoChannel, which bills itself as "the largest independent automotive information resource." The article is entitled, "Study Reveals: Auto Suppliers Find No Cost Guarantee in China Sourcing."  We need a study for this? 

The article goes on to reveal the less than ground breaking news that an "efficient low cost country supply chain is a competitive weapon," but that for American auto suppliers, establishing that chain out of China will soon be essential.  But, there are no guarantees. 

Once one gets beyond these journalistic truisms, however, the study itself does contain some very cogent information.  Andreas Mai, a principal at management consultancy, PRTM made the following excellent points based on the study, which consisted of "more than 50 interviews and surveys with executives of global automotive suppliers located in the U.S:"

-- "China sourcing requires minimum savings of 20 percent to outweigh the increased costs of logistics, quality and intellectual property risk."  I agree.  Not sure if things like accounting fees and legal fees go under logistics, but companies should plan for those to increase as well when doing business internationally.   

-- "A remote 'test the waters' approach is bound to fail." I completely agree.  Do not expect to go over to China for a few weeks to "start" a complicated operation there and then turn everything over to your newly hired, but expert Chinese managers and engineers.  That simply will not happen.  It will take years before you have a really good team on board.  Years.  And, good Chinese management and technical people, no matter where you are in the country, cost more than $200 per month.  Always.

--"Highest savings were achieved by suppliers that deployed an integrated China strategy as part of Chinese market expansion and/or global product management."  This makes sense.

-- "Sustainable China sourcing results require high investment in local supplier development, technical and quality support."  This makes sense.

-- "Early adopters achieve the highest savings rates, shorter procurement lead times and lower quality and supply chain risks, but the learning curve was 6-10 years."  China has changed so much from 6-10 years ago, that I have to believe it will take far less time than 6-10 years now. I say this for many reasons.  First, the early adopters have made things easier for the next generation.  The Chinese government and the local facilities are now better equipped and better able to provide the suppliers with what they need.  Second, China's labor force is better now than ten years ago.  Third, China's legal and regulatory climate is much better now than it was 6-10 years ago, particularly for these sorts of industry. 

Bottom Line:  Business basics apply in China just like everywhere else. 

Negotiating in China

A reader from British Columbia, Canada, recently recommended Harvard Business School's website to me for information on China.  Nice rec. 

The site has a number of good articles on China, but I particularly liked Negotiating in China, co-written by John L. Graham, professor of international business at the University of California, Irvine, Paul Merage School of Business and M. Mark Lam, CEO of Live365.com, the world's largest internet radio network.  Graham and Lam are also co-authors of the book, China Now: Cashing In On the World's Fastest Growing Market, to be published on July 1, 2006, by McGraw Hill.

Though this China negotiations article was written in 2003, and though I am always saying that what was true in China a year ago is probably not true today, its culture is relatively immutable and this article's advice on negotiating in China is still right on.  The article stresses the need for westerners to know more than basic Chinese etiquette to negotiate successfully with the Chinese:

Indeed, our work with dozens of companies and thousands of American and Chinese executives over the past twenty years has demonstrated to us that a superficial obedience to the rules of etiquette gets you only so far. In fact, we have witnessed breakdowns between American and Chinese businesspeople time and time again. The root cause: a failure on the American side to understand the much broader context of Chinese culture and values, a problem that too often leaves Western negotiators both flummoxed and flailing.

All too often, Americans see Chinese negotiators as inefficient, indirect, and even dishonest, while the Chinese see American negotiators as aggressive, impersonal, and excitable. Such differences have deep cultural origins. Yet those who know how to navigate these differences can develop thriving, mutually profitable, and satisfying business relationships.

According to the article, westerners negotiating with the Chinese must always be mindful of the following eight important elements underpinning "the Chinese negotiation style:" 

Guanxi (Personal Connections)
While Americans put a premium on networking, information, and institutions, the Chinese place a premium on individuals� social capital within their group of friends, relatives, and close associates.

Zhongjian Ren (The Intermediary)
Business deals for Americans in China don't have a chance without the zhongjian ren, the intermediary. In the United States, we tend to trust others until or unless we�re given reason not to. In China, suspicion and distrust characterize all meetings with strangers.

Shehui Dengji (Social Status)
American-style, "just call me Mary" casualness does not play well in a country where the Confucian values of obedience and deference to one�s superiors remain strong. The formality goes much deeper, however�unfathomably so, to many Westerners.

Renji Hexie (Interpersonal Harmony)
The Chinese sayings, "A man without a smile should not open a shop." and "Sweet temper and friendliness produce money." speak volumes about the importance of harmonious relations between business partners.

Zhengti Guannian (Holistic Thinking)
The Chinese think in terms of the whole while Americans think sequentially and individualistically, breaking up complex negotiation tasks into a series of smaller issues: price, quantity, warranty, delivery, and so forth. Chinese negotiators tend to talk about those issues all at once, skipping among them, and, from the Americans� point of view, seemingly never settling anything.

Jiejian (Thrift)
China�s long history of economic and political instability has taught its people to save their money, a practice known as jiejian. The focus on savings results, in business negotiations, in a lot of bargaining over price�usually through haggling. Chinese negotiators will pad their offers with more room to maneuver than most Americans are used to, and they will make concessions on price with great reluctance and only after lengthy discussions.

Mianzi ("Face" or Social Capital)
In Chinese business culture, a person�s reputation and social standing rest on saving face. If Westerners cause the Chinese embarrassment or loss of composure, even unintentionally, it can be disastrous for business negotiations.

Chiku Nailao (Endurance, Relentlessness, or Eating Bitterness and Enduring Labor)
The Chinese are famous for their work ethic. But they take diligence one step further�to endurance. Where Americans place high value on talent as a key to success, the Chinese see chiku nailao as much more important and honorable.

Anyone who has done business in China can no doubt see where at least some of these elements played a role in their dealings.  If I am going to be negotiating a big deal in a foreign country, I try to bring along someone (preferably someone I know well) steeped in the local culture.  I find translators are good at telling me what was said, but the person who knows both the language and the culture can help me decide what to say next and why.  It is not so much that one cannot do business without knowing the intricacies of the culture, but knowing those intricacies definitely helps.

Bottom Line: The more you understand of the Chinese negotiating style, the better equiped you will be to succeed in negotiating with them.  The more you know of Chinese culture, the better you will understand their negotiating techniques. 

Asia Business Law Blog on China's Economic Future

An economist, a physicist and a chemist are stranded on an island with one unopened can of food.  The physicist suggests they roll the can down a hill where it will strike a rock which will pierce the can and release the food.   The chemist suggests they cool the can in the ocean then heat it in the sun so as to cause the can to burst.  The economist suggests they assume they have a can opener. 

My sense is that any prediction of China's economic future will be so dependent on the assumptions chosen that the assumptions themselves will determine the prediction.  Nonetheless, I was very impressed with a recent Asia Business Law post, entitled, "China Surveyed," that sets forth the following three possibilities for China's economic future:

  • An economy that continues to boom as the political system gradually becomes more liberal and China becomes an increasingly positive force in the world;
  • A fast-growing economy, a surge of vengeful nationalism and an attempt by China to displace American power in Asia regain Taiwan and challenge Japan; or
  • A country in disarray, engulfed by social and political crises as its economy slumps.

The post goes on to provide an excellent analysis of how politics, demographics, productivity, and reform might influence China's economic future.  I find it both fascinating and a bit scary that one can easily muster facts to argue for any of these three scenarios. 

Asia Business Law's subtitle is "clarifying news of import for legal professionals in Asian business" and though it has been online for only a few weeks, it is already living up to its subtitle.  It is written by four University of California Hastings College of the Law students who show an enviable passion for and deeply rooted knowledge of Asia. The blogosphere needs a site that analyzes how the various Asian countries interact and influence each other and the world.  Asia Business Law Blog is that site and we have added it to our blogroll.

China is Expensive -- NOT. Go Second Tier and Life Will Be Good.

The China media story du jour seems to have shifted recently from raves about two dollar meals to stories on how China is getting too expensive for business.  This new line says wages in China are up, good Chinese employees are difficult to find, and foreign companies are leaving China for cheaper and more abundant labor.  What's a foreign company to do?  Not worry. 

Wages are rising in China, particularly in places like Shanghai and Shenzhen, but also in less "foreign populated" cities like Dalian and Qingdao as well -- but much more slowly.  However, productivity increases are still outstripping wage gains and none of these newly reported economic ills are at all new.  The most cited of these "will the last foreigner in China please turn out the lights" articles, "How Rising Wages Are Changing the Game in China," admits (though buried deep within the article) that "improved productivity in China has so far offset higher wages." 

It can be exceedingly difficult to find good employees in China, particularly those with high level management or technical skills, and particularly in the more foreign dominated areas, like Shanghai or Beijing.  But this has always been true.   

These "China is getting expensive stories" make the mistake of equating Shanghai and Beijing with all of China, effectively ignoring more than a billion people, whose wages are lower than those in China's ex-pat centers.  The story I would be writing is how western companies are coming to realize there is more to China than just Shanghai and Beijing, and how they are beginning to consider a greater number of factors in deciding where to locate within China. 

I am seeing more western companies interested in starting their China operations in cities outside the typical favorites like Shanghai, Gaungzho, Beijing, and Shenzhen.  I also am hearing more talk from companies already in those cities about expanding elsewhere, with reasons as varied as the companies themselves.  Some are interested in regional or city tax incentives.  Some are thinking about logistics.  Some want greater exposure to China's internal market.  Some just want to be somewhere quieter and/or less polluted. And yes, some want to be where wages are lower or where the workforce they need is more accessible.  Westerners (in the footsteps of Japanese and Korean companies) are now starting to recognize that for many businesses, particularly low and mid range manufacturing operations, there are many reasons to consider China's so-called second tier cities, such as Yantai, Tianjin, Dalian, Wuhan, Wuxi, Qingdao, Harbin, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenyang, and Changzhou.

You can read more about China's second tier city phenomenon in "Shanghai Seeing the Bigger Picture," and in "Crouching Dalian, Hidden Dragon."   Real estate mega-firm, Cendant, recently conducted an extensive executive survey survey that concluded there would be a "sharp increase in executive assignment volume to cities such as Chengdu, Dalian, Tianjin, Qingdao, Shenyang and Chongqing." 

Many of China's smaller cities are recognizing their ability to bring in foreign business and are aggressively marketing themselves.  A good example of this can be found in a recent San Francisco Chronicle article entitled "China Throws a New Pitch: Changzhou Hopes to be a Magnet for U.S. Companies" detailing Changzhou's recent Silicon Valley road show:

Located 100 miles west of Shanghai, Changzhou offers very low costs and an ease of doing business matched by few other places, according to Changzhou's mayor, Wang Weicheng. Wang led a delegation of executives and municipal officials to San Jose on Monday in search of investors and U.S. firms interested in starting operations in his city.

For ambitious cities like Changzhou, Silicon Valley is a rich potential source of capital and technology. For Silicon Valley, Changzhou is a deep well of talent and an inexpensive place to operate, compared with bigger, more mature cities like Shanghai, where costs are rising fast.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' just released Study on the Competitiveness of China's Cities listed the following cities as Greater China's twenty most competitive, in order: Hong Kong, Taipei, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Kaohsiung, Macao, Hsinchu, Keelung, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Tainan, Tianjin, Xiamen, Dalian, Wuxi, Shenyang and Qingdao.  Unfortunately, I could not find anything that clearly describes the criteria used to compile this ranking. 

Bottom Line:  In considering where to enter or to expand in China, you will probably want to consider some combination of costs, taxes, quality of life, location, work force, market, logistics. Depending on the weight you give to each of these factors, you may find yourself joining the growing list of foreign companies who have realized China is more than just Shanghai and Beijing.